Issued 2026-09-16 at $80.45 · now $80.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CRCL has typically landed between $50.34 and $125.38 — a range of −37.4% to +55.8% from the issuance price $80.45.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
301 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-06-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($80.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CRCL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $80.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $80.45 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $75.81 (-5.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $60.62–$91
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $50.34–$125.38
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 301 windows spanning 2025-06-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-10-27 | −51.1% | −53.3% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-24 | −48.8% | −52.9% | +0.9% |
| 2025-10-28 | −46.6% | −50.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-06-04 | +560.7% | +0.0% | +749.8% |
| 2026-02-05 | +122.7% | +0.0% | +122.7% |
| 2026-02-12 | +122.2% | +0.0% | +122.2% |
301 overlapping windows · 2025-06-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−19.4%
n=1
Feb
100%
+30.5%
n=1
Mar
100%
+14.3%
n=1
Apr
0%
−4.7%
n=1
May
100%
+24.3%
n=1
Jun
0%
−44.6%
n=1
Jul
50%
+0.6%
n=2
Aug
50%
+12.3%
n=2
Sep
50%
−7.7%
n=2
Oct
0%
−4.2%
n=1
Nov
0%
−37.1%
n=1
Dec
0%
−0.8%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Chandhok Nikhil | officer | Sale | 26,666 @ $100.40 | $2.7M | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 722,480 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 22,073 @ $98.50 | $2.2M | −6.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 341,929 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 14,967 @ $97.68 | $1.5M | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 364,002 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 10,991 @ $96.50 | $1.1M | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 378,969 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 6,843 @ $99.40 | $680K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 335,086 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 1,326 @ $100.34 | $133K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 333,760 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 596 @ $98.50 | $59K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 60,538 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 596 @ $98.50 | $59K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 60,535 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 595 @ $98.50 | $59K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 60,534 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 404 @ $97.68 | $39K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 61,134 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 404 @ $97.68 | $39K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 61,129 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 403 @ $97.68 | $39K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 61,131 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 297 @ $96.50 | $29K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 61,533 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 296 @ $96.50 | $29K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 61,538 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 296 @ $96.50 | $29K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 61,534 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 185 @ $99.40 | $18K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 60,350 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 185 @ $99.40 | $18K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 60,353 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 184 @ $99.40 | $18K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 60,350 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 36 @ $100.34 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 60,314 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 35 @ $100.34 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 60,318 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Fox-Geen Jeremy | officer | Sale | 8,120 @ $87.87 | $714K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 308,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Razzaghi Hossein | officer | Sale | 7,458 @ $87.87 | $655K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 644,865 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Schulz Tamara L | officer | Sale | 1,194 @ $87.87 | $105K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 96,473 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $92.09 | $4.6M | −96.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Fox-Geen Jeremy | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $92.20 | $1.4M | −4.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 323,837 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Fox-Geen Jeremy | officer | Sale | 45,000 @ $90.00 | $4.0M | −12.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 323,837 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | BURNS M MICHELE | director | Sale | 3,332 @ $85.13 | $284K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 327,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Fox-Geen Jeremy | officer | Sale | 8,476 @ $75.00 | $636K | −2.6% of holding | +31.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 323,837 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Chandhok Nikhil | officer | Sale | 26,666 @ $67.15 | $1.8M | −3.6% of holding | +40.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 717,920 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Ostling Danita K | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $61.65 | $1.2M | −81.3% of holding | +61.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,608 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 19,481 @ $61.76 | $1.2M | −4.4% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 419,524 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 13,061 @ $62.94 | $822K | −3.1% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 406,463 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 9,692 @ $61.05 | $592K | −2.2% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 439,005 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 8,284 @ $63.66 | $527K | −2.0% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 398,179 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 5,682 @ $60.14 | $342K | −1.3% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 448,697 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 526 @ $61.76 | $32K | −0.8% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,410 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 526 @ $61.76 | $32K | −0.8% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,406 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 525 @ $61.76 | $32K | −0.8% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,405 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 353 @ $62.94 | $22K | −0.6% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,057 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 352 @ $62.94 | $22K | −0.6% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,054 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 352 @ $62.94 | $22K | −0.6% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,053 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 262 @ $61.05 | $16K | −0.4% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 261 @ $61.05 | $16K | −0.4% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,936 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 261 @ $61.05 | $16K | −0.4% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,932 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 224 @ $63.66 | $14K | −0.4% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 223 @ $63.66 | $14K | −0.4% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,834 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 223 @ $63.66 | $14K | −0.4% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 154 @ $60.14 | $9K | −0.2% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,192 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 153 @ $60.14 | $9K | −0.2% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,193 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 153 @ $60.14 | $9K | −0.2% of holding | +62.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,197 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Razzaghi Hossein | officer | Sale | 1,829 @ $60.08 | $110K | −0.3% of holding | +40.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 659,310 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | Schulz Tamara L | officer | Sale | 1,194 @ $60.08 | $72K | −1.2% of holding | +40.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,205 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-03 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Sale | 15,779 @ $60.46 | $954K | −78.0% of holding | +47.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,444 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Sale | 16,273 @ $58.50 | $952K | −31.3% of holding | +47.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,745 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Sale | 15,522 @ $59.51 | $924K | −43.4% of holding | +47.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,223 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Sale | 2,426 @ $61.03 | $148K | −54.6% of holding | +47.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,018 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Chandhok Nikhil | officer | Sale | 26,666 @ $63.90 | $1.7M | −3.5% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 725,068 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 14,175 @ $69.11 | $980K | −3.0% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 456,263 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 14,138 @ $65.89 | $932K | −2.8% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 488,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Sale | 11,978 @ $68.23 | $817K | −2.5% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 470,438 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
136 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Chandhok Nikhil | officer | Option exercise | 23,333 | 749,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Chandhok Nikhil | officer | Option exercise | 23,333 | 330,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Chandhok Nikhil | officer | Option exercise | 15,496 | 725,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Chandhok Nikhil | officer | Option exercise | 15,496 | 354,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Tarbert Heath | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,382 | 475,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Withheld for tax | 8,404 | 15,659,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Withheld for tax | 8,219 | 389,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Chandhok Nikhil | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,603 | 710,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fox-Geen Jeremy | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,426 | 316,411 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Razzaghi Hossein | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,987 | 652,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fox-Geen Jeremy | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 338,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Schulz Tamara L | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,538 | 97,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fox-Geen Jeremy | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 1,085,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Option exercise | 2,434 | 9,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Option exercise | 15,193 | 15,667,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Option exercise | 6,742 | 107,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Option exercise | 6,017 | 168,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Conversion | 50,000 | 52,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Conversion | 50,000 | 3,015,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Conversion | 50,000 | 52,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Conversion | 50,000 | 3,015,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Conversion | 50,000 | 3,015,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Conversion | 50,000 | 52,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Conversion | 50,000 | 52,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Conversion | 50,000 | 3,015,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Fox-Geen Jeremy | officer | Option exercise | 45,000 | 368,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Fox-Geen Jeremy | officer | Option exercise | 45,000 | 1,100,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Chandhok Nikhil | officer | Option exercise | 23,333 | 744,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Chandhok Nikhil | officer | Option exercise | 23,333 | 369,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Conversion | 50,000 | 3,065,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Conversion | 50,000 | 52,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Conversion | 50,000 | 3,065,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Neville Patrick Sean | director | Conversion | 50,000 | 52,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Tarbert Heath | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,988 | 486,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fox-Geen Jeremy | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,876 | 332,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Chandhok Nikhil | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,815 | 721,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Razzaghi Hossein | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,717 | 661,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Schulz Tamara L | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,031 | 100,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Schulz Tamara L | officer | Award / grant | 15,559 | 101,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Allaire Jeremy | director | Withheld for tax | 8,404 | 15,652,309 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.