CRC · TickerCove

CRCCalifornia Resources CorpEnergy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $54.47 · now $54.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CRC has typically landed between $46.22 and $63.61 — a range of −15.1% to +16.8% from the issuance price $54.47.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,881 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-11-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($54.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$54.47 · 43% of range

$42.98 low$69.66 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.9%

typical move · IQR 13.5%

−15.1%worst (p90)+16.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CRC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $54.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $54.47 (+0.0%)
typical $54.97 (+0.9%)
middle 50% $51.3–$58.64
90% range $46.22–$63.61

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,881 windows spanning 2014-11-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-03-03	−85.9%	−85.9%	+3.6%
2020-03-02	−84.0%	−84.0%	+9.7%
2020-02-28	−83.6%	−83.6%	+8.4%
3 best
2020-07-15	+1744.8%	+0.0%	+1744.8%
2020-07-14	+1676.4%	+0.0%	+1676.4%
2020-07-13	+1506.9%	−1.8%	+1506.9%

2,881 overlapping windows · 2014-11-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

33%

−3.3%

n=12

Feb

42%

−3.9%

n=12

Mar

58%

+3.0%

n=12

Apr

42%

+24.2%

n=12

May

33%

−4.4%

n=12

Jun

50%

−0.8%

n=12

Jul

25%

−5.5%

n=12

Aug

64%

+0.8%

n=11

Sep

73%

+5.0%

n=11

Oct

40%

−2.6%

n=10

Nov

73%

+15.4%

n=11

Dec

50%

−1.4%

n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-04	Bys Jay A.	officer	Sale	11,907 @ $54.00	$643K	−8.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	135,610	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Bys Jay A.	officer	Sale	11,907 @ $54.00	$643K	−7.5% of holding	+6.9%	not yet — horizon still open	147,517	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13	Bys Jay A.	officer	Sale	11,907 @ $54.00	$643K	−6.9% of holding	−1.4%	not yet — horizon still open	159,424	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-04	Bys Jay A.	officer	Sale	11,907 @ $61.68	$734K	−6.5% of holding	−15.3%	not yet — horizon still open	171,331	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12	Preston Michael L.	officer	Sale	26,409 @ $59.82	$1.6M	−20.2% of holding	−4.0%	not yet — horizon still open	104,214	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-12	CANADA PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT BOARD	other	Sale	3,500,000 @ $61.10	$213.8M	−33.3% of holding	+2.6%	−22.8%	7,006,895	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-11	Gould Christopher D.	officer	Sale	24,347 @ $62.21	$1.5M	−15.6% of holding	+5.9%	−21.9%	131,537	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09	Hayat Omar	officer	Sale	23,000 @ $65.87	$1.5M	−21.9% of holding	+4.4%	−25.6%	82,236	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-06	McFarland Mark Allen	director	Sale	16,372 @ $64.83	$1.1M	−17.7% of holding	+8.3%	−30.3%	76,265	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-05	Repetti Noelle M.	officer	Sale	8,564 @ $63.71	$546K	−52.7% of holding	+10.3%	−28.9%	7,684	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12	Leon Francisco	director	Purchase	5,425 @ $47.71	$259K	+1.8% of holding	+2.4%	+21.3%	304,834	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-12	Roby William B	director	Purchase	467 @ $47.63	$22K	+0.8% of holding	+2.4%	+21.3%	57,179	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-21	CHAPMAN JAMES N	director	Purchase	17 @ $44.49	$775	+0.0% of holding	−13.5%	+8.3%	43,462	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-05	CHAPMAN JAMES N	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $39.42	$79K	+4.8% of holding	+9.4%	+19.4%	43,445	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-12	Preston Michael L.	officer	Sale	71,132 @ $55.08	$3.9M	−56.9% of holding	−0.5%	−12.7%	53,806	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-12	Hayat Omar	officer	Sale	14,477 @ $55.11	$798K	−30.8% of holding	−0.5%	−12.7%	32,479	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-12	Preston Michael L.	officer	Sale	11,868 @ $55.81	$662K	−22.1% of holding	−0.5%	−12.7%	41,938	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-12	Hayat Omar	officer	Sale	1,539 @ $55.87	$86K	−4.7% of holding	−0.5%	−12.7%	30,940	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

92 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-19	Hayat Omar	officer	Withheld for tax	3,945	85,631	Form 4
2026-06-19	Hayat Omar	officer	Withheld for tax	2,139	83,492	Form 4
2026-06-19	Hayat Omar	officer	Award / grant	7,312	89,576	Form 4
2026-05-08	Hayat Omar	officer	Withheld for tax	94	82,315	Form 4
2026-05-08	Hayat Omar	officer	Withheld for tax	51	82,264	Form 4
2026-05-08	Hayat Omar	officer	Award / grant	173	82,409	Form 4
2026-04-30	CHAPMAN JAMES N	director	Award / grant	3,091	52,251	Form 4
2026-04-30	CEPAK TIFFANY THOM	director	Award / grant	5,023	86,325	Form 4
2026-04-30	McFarland Mark Allen	director	Award / grant	3,091	79,356	Form 4
2026-04-30	Roby William B	director	Award / grant	3,091	60,270	Form 4
2026-04-30	Veltmann Alejandra	director	Award / grant	3,091	24,022	Form 4
2026-04-30	Bremner Andrew B.	director	Award / grant	3,091	30,982	Form 4
2026-04-30	Kendall Christian S	director	Award / grant	3,091	33,389	Form 4
2026-03-02	Bys Jay A.	officer	Award / grant	15,957	183,238	Form 4
2026-03-02	Preston Michael L.	officer	Award / grant	19,166	130,623	Form 4
2026-03-02	Crespy Clio C.	officer	Award / grant	17,462	98,501	Form 4
2026-03-02	Repetti Noelle M.	officer	Award / grant	3,638	16,248	Form 4
2026-03-02	Leon Francisco	director	Award / grant	43,833	336,948	Form 4
2026-03-02	Hayat Omar	officer	Award / grant	16,327	105,236	Form 4
2026-03-02	Gould Christopher D.	officer	Award / grant	17,462	155,884	Form 4
2026-02-25	Leon Francisco	director	Withheld for tax	9,317	293,115	Form 4
2026-02-25	Preston Michael L.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,074	111,457	Form 4
2026-02-25	Hayat Omar	officer	Withheld for tax	3,471	88,909	Form 4
2026-02-25	Crespy Clio C.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,404	81,039	Form 4
2026-02-25	Gould Christopher D.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,147	138,422	Form 4
2026-02-25	Bys Jay A.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,809	167,281	Form 4
2026-02-25	Repetti Noelle M.	officer	Withheld for tax	764	12,610	Form 4
2026-02-23	Leon Francisco	director	Withheld for tax	22,729	302,432	Form 4
2026-02-23	Preston Michael L.	officer	Withheld for tax	11,314	115,531	Form 4
2026-02-23	Gould Christopher D.	officer	Withheld for tax	9,276	141,569	Form 4
2026-02-23	Bys Jay A.	officer	Withheld for tax	9,033	170,090	Form 4
2026-02-23	Repetti Noelle M.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,474	13,374	Form 4
2026-02-23	Hayat Omar	officer	Withheld for tax	1,451	92,380	Form 4
2026-02-23	Leon Francisco	director	Award / grant	27,320	325,161	Form 4
2026-02-23	Hayat Omar	officer	Award / grant	1,744	93,831	Form 4
2026-02-23	Repetti Noelle M.	officer	Award / grant	2,914	15,848	Form 4
2026-02-23	Preston Michael L.	officer	Award / grant	13,599	126,845	Form 4
2026-02-23	Gould Christopher D.	officer	Award / grant	13,186	150,845	Form 4
2026-02-23	Bys Jay A.	officer	Award / grant	13,113	179,123	Form 4
2026-02-22	Leon Francisco	director	Withheld for tax	6,993	297,841	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i