Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.25 · now $1.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CRBU has typically landed between $0.89 and $1.78 — a range of −29.1% to +42.7% from the issuance price $1.25.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,272 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CRBU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.25 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.16 (-7.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $0.9942–$1.33
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.8866–$1.78
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-05-17 | −51.6% | −51.6% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-16 | −51.3% | −51.3% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-15 | −50.8% | −50.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-06-23 | +87.9% | −5.3% | +87.9% |
| 2023-06-09 | +80.9% | −5.8% | +80.9% |
| 2021-07-23 | +79.2% | −3.5% | +79.2% |
1,272 overlapping windows · 2021-07-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | Kelly Timothy P | officer | Sale | 6,228 @ $1.93 | $12K | −7.8% of holding | +4.6% | −26.5% | 73,125 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | MCCLUNG BARBARA G | officer | Sale | 6,938 @ $1.96 | $14K | −1.4% of holding | −8.0% | −29.8% | 481,564 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Khan Ruhi Ahmad | officer | Sale | 6,938 @ $1.96 | $14K | −6.2% of holding | −8.0% | −29.8% | 104,998 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelly Timothy P | officer | Sale | 3,147 @ $1.96 | $6K | −3.8% of holding | −8.0% | −29.8% | 79,353 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Albertson Tina M. | officer | Sale | 1,066 @ $1.96 | $2K | −1.5% of holding | −8.0% | −29.8% | 68,523 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-14 | Haurwitz Rachel E. | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $1.02 | $20K | +0.6% of holding | −16.9% | +63.1% | 3,369,395 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | MCCLUNG BARBARA G | officer | Sale | 3,564 @ $1.35 | $5K | −0.8% of holding | −18.1% | +33.0% | 443,502 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-21 | Kanner Steven | officer | Sale | 3,564 @ $1.35 | $5K | −0.8% of holding | −18.1% | +33.0% | 431,556 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-21 | Khan Ruhi Ahmad | officer | Sale | 3,564 @ $1.35 | $5K | −5.1% of holding | −18.1% | +33.0% | 66,936 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-29 | Ryali Sriram | officer | Purchase | 17,360 @ $1.42 | $25K | ownership Δ n/a | −11.4% | +45.8% | 17,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
39 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Sacks Natalie | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Ryali Sriram | officer | Award / grant | 55,000 | 72,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Ryali Sriram | officer | Award / grant | 247,500 | 247,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Whiting Nancy | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Zheng Ran | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Richardson-Heron Dara | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Albertson Tina M. | officer | Award / grant | 55,000 | 69,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Albertson Tina M. | officer | Award / grant | 247,500 | 247,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | MCCLUNG BARBARA G | officer | Award / grant | 45,000 | 488,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | MCCLUNG BARBARA G | officer | Award / grant | 202,500 | 202,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Kelly Timothy P | officer | Award / grant | 45,000 | 82,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Kelly Timothy P | officer | Award / grant | 202,500 | 202,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Khan Ruhi Ahmad | officer | Award / grant | 45,000 | 111,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Haurwitz Rachel E. | director | Award / grant | 682,500 | 682,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Khan Ruhi Ahmad | officer | Award / grant | 202,500 | 202,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Braunstein Scott | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Haurwitz Rachel E. | director | Award / grant | 151,700 | 447,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | JOHNSON DAVID LEE | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Kelly Timothy P | officer | Award / grant | 170,000 | 170,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Khan Ruhi Ahmad | officer | Award / grant | 37,500 | 70,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Khan Ruhi Ahmad | officer | Award / grant | 170,000 | 170,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Sacks Natalie | director | Award / grant | 40,500 | 40,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Albertson Tina M. | officer | Award / grant | 14,589 | 14,589 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Albertson Tina M. | officer | Award / grant | 66,137 | 66,137 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | MCCLUNG BARBARA G | officer | Award / grant | 170,000 | 170,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Braunstein Scott | director | Award / grant | 40,500 | 40,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Haurwitz Rachel E. | director | Award / grant | 136,750 | 295,450 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | MCCLUNG BARBARA G | officer | Award / grant | 37,500 | 447,066 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | JOHNSON DAVID LEE | director | Award / grant | 40,500 | 40,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Kanner Steven | officer | Award / grant | 37,500 | 435,120 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Kanner Steven | officer | Award / grant | 170,000 | 170,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Whiting Nancy | director | Award / grant | 40,500 | 40,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Richardson-Heron Dara | director | Award / grant | 40,500 | 40,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Haurwitz Rachel E. | director | Award / grant | 618,250 | 618,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Zheng Ran | director | Award / grant | 40,500 | 40,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | GUGGENHIME ANDREW | director | Award / grant | 40,500 | 40,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-20 | Kelly Timothy P | officer | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-10 | Ryali Sriram | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.