Issued 2026-09-16 at $164.37 · now $164.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CRAI has typically landed between $142.32 and $190.84 — a range of −13.4% to +16.1% from the issuance price $164.37.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($164.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CRAI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $164.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $164.37 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $165.92 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $156.65–$175.19
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $142.32–$190.84
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −57.5% | −57.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −50.9% | −57.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −50.1% | −56.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +59.0% | +0.0% | +69.1% |
| 2008-03-10 | +41.2% | +0.0% | +47.9% |
| 2008-03-11 | +35.2% | +0.0% | +37.9% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
30%
−2.6%
n=20
Feb
80%
+5.9%
n=20
Mar
45%
−1.7%
n=20
Apr
45%
+1.6%
n=20
May
45%
−0.8%
n=20
Jun
60%
−0.5%
n=20
Jul
70%
+3.5%
n=20
Aug
50%
−0.1%
n=20
Sep
40%
−2.1%
n=20
Oct
65%
+3.9%
n=20
Nov
65%
+3.6%
n=20
Dec
65%
+2.0%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 4,852 @ $173.04 | $840K | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 103,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 2,348 @ $172.06 | $404K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 108,702 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 268 @ $174.13 | $47K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 103,582 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 32 @ $174.78 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 103,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 1,307 @ $173.34 | $227K | −10.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,553 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 543 @ $172.30 | $94K | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,860 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 400 @ $174.26 | $70K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,153 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Tookes Heather | director | Sale | 88 @ $165.90 | $15K | −2.3% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,718 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Tookes Heather | director | Sale | 124 @ $173.31 | $21K | −4.2% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,817 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 5,581 @ $135.99 | $759K | −4.7% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,469 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $142.17 | $156K | −1.0% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 111,050 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 500 @ $134.48 | $67K | −0.4% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,050 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 319 @ $136.86 | $44K | −0.3% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,150 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $148.00 | $237K | −10.8% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,247 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 400 @ $147.44 | $59K | −2.6% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,847 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 250 @ $146.37 | $37K | −1.6% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,247 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 1,704 @ $155.00 | $264K | −1.4% of holding | −0.8% | −7.0% | 118,413 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 1,575 @ $156.33 | $246K | −1.3% of holding | −0.8% | −7.0% | 116,838 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 1,484 @ $153.91 | $228K | −1.2% of holding | −0.8% | −7.0% | 120,117 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 1,375 @ $158.36 | $218K | −1.2% of holding | −0.8% | −7.0% | 115,188 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 1,012 @ $152.66 | $154K | −0.8% of holding | −0.8% | −7.0% | 121,601 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 275 @ $157.66 | $43K | −0.2% of holding | −0.8% | −7.0% | 116,563 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 75 @ $159.15 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | −0.8% | −7.0% | 115,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 1,650 @ $181.94 | $300K | −10.1% of holding | −8.3% | −20.3% | 14,646 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 500 @ $182.99 | $91K | −3.4% of holding | −8.3% | −20.3% | 14,146 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 100 @ $184.10 | $18K | −0.7% of holding | −8.3% | −20.3% | 14,046 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Avery Thomas Aiken | director | Sale | 1,026 @ $187.35 | $192K | −6.7% of holding | −5.4% | −18.1% | 14,339 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Tookes Heather | director | Sale | 110 @ $198.12 | $22K | −3.6% of holding | +8.6% | −36.1% | 2,941 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 3,295 @ $182.91 | $603K | −2.7% of holding | +13.3% | −29.8% | 118,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 1,313 @ $184.87 | $243K | −1.1% of holding | +13.3% | −29.8% | 116,545 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 1,198 @ $181.94 | $218K | −1.0% of holding | +13.3% | −29.8% | 122,065 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 912 @ $183.98 | $168K | −0.8% of holding | +13.3% | −29.8% | 117,858 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 682 @ $180.69 | $123K | −0.6% of holding | +13.3% | −29.8% | 123,263 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 100 @ $178.78 | $18K | −0.1% of holding | +13.3% | −29.8% | 123,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 1,317 @ $174.16 | $229K | −7.6% of holding | +16.9% | −31.0% | 16,006 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 343 @ $174.87 | $60K | −2.1% of holding | +16.9% | −31.0% | 15,663 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 60 @ $175.43 | $11K | −0.4% of holding | +16.9% | −31.0% | 15,603 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 30 @ $176.39 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | +16.9% | −31.0% | 15,573 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 996 @ $187.30 | $187K | −5.3% of holding | +7.0% | −20.4% | 17,842 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 519 @ $188.13 | $98K | −2.9% of holding | +7.0% | −20.4% | 17,323 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Sale | 235 @ $186.42 | $44K | −1.2% of holding | +7.0% | −20.4% | 18,838 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 3,462 @ $185.42 | $642K | −2.6% of holding | +7.6% | −22.0% | 128,083 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 1,603 @ $186.59 | $299K | −1.3% of holding | +7.6% | −22.0% | 126,480 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 1,110 @ $189.72 | $211K | −0.9% of holding | +7.6% | −22.0% | 124,407 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 763 @ $188.43 | $144K | −0.6% of holding | +7.6% | −22.0% | 125,517 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 362 @ $190.88 | $69K | −0.3% of holding | +7.6% | −22.0% | 124,045 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 200 @ $186.97 | $37K | −0.2% of holding | +7.6% | −22.0% | 126,280 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 2,903 @ $185.79 | $539K | −2.1% of holding | +3.7% | −13.6% | 132,314 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 1,128 @ $184.70 | $208K | −0.8% of holding | +3.7% | −13.6% | 135,217 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 483 @ $187.41 | $91K | −0.4% of holding | +3.7% | −13.6% | 131,545 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 286 @ $186.65 | $53K | −0.2% of holding | +3.7% | −13.6% | 132,028 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $186.70 | $560K | −2.1% of holding | +0.7% | −10.5% | 138,545 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $187.54 | $300K | −1.2% of holding | +0.7% | −10.5% | 136,945 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Maleh Paul A | director | Sale | 600 @ $188.43 | $113K | −0.4% of holding | +0.7% | −10.5% | 136,345 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | Tookes Heather | director | Sale | 88 @ $177.03 | $16K | −2.8% of holding | +8.2% | +7.9% | 3,051 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
245 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Maleh Paul A | director | Award / grant | 23 | 6,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Maleh Paul A | director | Award / grant | 9 | 2,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Maleh Paul A | director | Award / grant | 19 | 5,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Nierenberg Eric | officer | Award / grant | 3 | 918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Langan Brian | officer | Award / grant | 3 | 918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Award / grant | 2 | 680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Award / grant | 1 | 320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Holmes Chad M | officer | Award / grant | 5 | 1,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Holmes Chad M | officer | Award / grant | 4 | 1,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Maleh Paul A | director | Award / grant | 5 | 1,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Holmes Chad M | officer | Award / grant | 2 | 640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Holmes Chad M | officer | Award / grant | 2 | 556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Award / grant | 4 | 1,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Maleh Paul A | director | Award / grant | 11 | 3,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Award / grant | 5 | 1,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Holmes Chad M | officer | Award / grant | 1 | 369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Nierenberg Eric | officer | Award / grant | 2 | 560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Langan Brian | officer | Award / grant | 2 | 560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Award / grant | 2 | 590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Maleh Paul A | director | Award / grant | 10 | 2,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Holmes Chad M | officer | Award / grant | 2 | 646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Yellin Jonathan D | officer | Award / grant | 2 | 561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Nierenberg Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 54 | 129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Langan Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 54 | 129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Langan Brian | officer | Disposition | 2 | 183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Nierenberg Eric | officer | Disposition | 2 | 183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Langan Brian | officer | Option exercise | 185 | 558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Nierenberg Eric | officer | Option exercise | 185 | 558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Langan Brian | officer | Option exercise | 185 | 185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Nierenberg Eric | officer | Option exercise | 185 | 185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Nierenberg Eric | officer | Option exercise | 185 | 185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Langan Brian | officer | Option exercise | 185 | 185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Langan Brian | officer | Option exercise | 185 | 185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Langan Brian | officer | Option exercise | 185 | 185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Nierenberg Eric | officer | Option exercise | 185 | 185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Nierenberg Eric | officer | Option exercise | 185 | 185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Avery Thomas Aiken | director | Award / grant | 989 | 15,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Taylor Alva | director | Award / grant | 989 | 4,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Keenan Karen C | director | Award / grant | 989 | 3,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Detrick Christine Rose | director | Award / grant | 989 | 7,128 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.