CR · TickerCove

CRCrane Companyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $197.25 · now $197.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CR has typically landed between $173.60 and $225.74 — a range of −12.0% to +14.4% from the issuance price $197.25.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($197.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$197.25 · 58% of range

$160.64 low$223.59 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.2%

typical move · IQR 11.4%

−12.0%worst (p90)+14.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

7 buys · 7 sells · 5 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $197.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $197.25 (+0.0%)
typical $201.58 (+2.2%)
middle 50% $190.34–$212.81
90% range $173.6–$225.74

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−54.2%	−54.2%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−53.2%	−53.2%	+0.0%
2008-09-30	−51.6%	−53.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05	+45.8%	+0.0%	+45.8%
2009-03-06	+43.1%	+0.0%	+45.3%
2020-10-28	+42.3%	+0.0%	+44.5%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

61%

+4.1%

n=18

Feb

68%

+1.6%

n=19

Mar

58%

−1.1%

n=19

Apr

68%

+2.1%

n=19

May

58%

+1.0%

n=19

Jun

47%

+1.1%

n=19

Jul

58%

+2.1%

n=19

Aug

37%

−1.1%

n=19

Sep

37%

−1.8%

n=19

Oct

72%

+2.2%

n=18

Nov

56%

+4.2%

n=18

Dec

61%

+2.2%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-31	TULLIS JAMES L L	director	Sale	400 @ $205.38	$82K	−7.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	5,021	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-13	TULLIS JAMES L L	director	Sale	614 @ $225.00	$138K	−10.2% of holding	−6.8%	not yet — horizon still open	5,421	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-30	Lynch Susan D	director	Purchase	150 @ $177.38	$27K	+68.2% of holding	−3.0%	not yet — horizon still open	370	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-13	Feldman Jason D.	officer	Sale	2,693 @ $201.95	$544K	−20.2% of holding	−10.3%	−13.3%	10,639	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-30	MITCHELL MAX H	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $183.71	$184K	+0.2% of holding	+11.8%	+3.0%	410,667	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-29	Kapoor Sanjay	director	Purchase	2,814 @ $177.68	$500K	ownership Δ n/a	+15.1%	+9.0%	2,814	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-29	Pollino Jennifer	director	Purchase	1,500 @ $184.29	$276K	ownership Δ n/a	+15.1%	+9.0%	1,500	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-29	Lynch Susan D	director	Purchase	100 @ $184.56	$18K	+142.9% of holding	+15.1%	+9.0%	170	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-29	Lynch Susan D	director	Purchase	50 @ $177.55	$9K	+29.4% of holding	+15.1%	+9.0%	220	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-25	Alcala Alejandro	officer	Sale	15,358 @ $192.50	$3.0M	−28.3% of holding	−9.8%	−2.2%	38,959	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-25	Alcala Alejandro	officer	Sale	4,800 @ $193.30	$928K	−12.3% of holding	−9.8%	−2.2%	34,159	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-25	Alcala Alejandro	officer	Sale	633 @ $194.26	$123K	−1.9% of holding	−9.8%	−2.2%	33,526	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-21	Maue Richard A	director	Sale	5,977 @ $189.20	$1.1M	−7.7% of holding	−8.7%	−1.4%	71,182	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-21	Maue Richard A	director	Sale	2,799 @ $190.17	$532K	−3.9% of holding	−8.7%	−1.4%	68,383	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20	Maue Richard A	director	Sale	13,639 @ $189.99	$2.6M	−16.4% of holding	−8.4%	−1.4%	69,684	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-20	Maue Richard A	director	Sale	6,601 @ $190.79	$1.3M	−9.5% of holding	−8.4%	−1.4%	63,083	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-20	Feldman Jason D.	officer	Sale	1,300 @ $177.10	$230K	−11.7% of holding	+1.6%	−9.3%	9,796	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-06	Alcala Alejandro	officer	Sale	2,293 @ $170.96	$392K	−6.5% of holding	−3.5%	+6.8%	32,963	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

282 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-01	TULLIS JAMES L L	director	Option exercise	1,226	32,124	Form 4
2026-06-01	TULLIS JAMES L L	director	Option exercise	1,226	6,035	Form 4
2026-04-27	Pollino Jennifer	director	Award / grant	874	23,979	Form 4
2026-04-27	Lindsay Ronald Carter	director	Award / grant	874	28,640	Form 4
2026-04-27	Lynch Susan D	director	Award / grant	874	2,605	Form 4
2026-04-27	MCCLURE CHARLES G	director	Award / grant	874	19,103	Form 4
2026-04-27	TULLIS JAMES L L	director	Award / grant	874	33,349	Form 4
2026-04-27	BENANTE MARTIN R	director	Award / grant	49	1,962	Form 4
2026-04-27	BENANTE MARTIN R	director	Award / grant	1,004	20,215	Form 4
2026-04-27	Kapoor Sanjay	director	Award / grant	1,393	7,966	Form 4
2026-04-27	HAIME ELLEN MCCLAIN	director	Award / grant	978	24,986	Form 4
2026-04-24	Papanikolaou Marijane V.	officer	Withheld for tax	236	960	Form 4
2026-04-24	Papanikolaou Marijane V.	officer	Option exercise	508	1,196	Form 4
2026-04-24	Papanikolaou Marijane V.	officer	Option exercise	508	1,176	Form 4
2026-04-20	Feldman Jason D.	officer	Withheld for tax	83	10,718	Form 4
2026-04-20	Feldman Jason D.	officer	Option exercise	162	2,350	Form 4
2026-04-20	Feldman Jason D.	officer	Option exercise	162	10,801	Form 4
2026-02-13	Feldman Jason D.	officer	Option exercise	2,693	13,332	Form 4
2026-02-13	Feldman Jason D.	officer	Option exercise	2,693	0	Form 4
2026-02-12	MITCHELL MAX H	director	Withheld for tax	1,048	415,459	Form 4
2026-02-12	Maue Richard A	director	Withheld for tax	302	73,794	Form 4
2026-02-12	Feldman Jason D.	officer	Withheld for tax	256	10,639	Form 4
2026-02-12	D'Iorio Anthony M.	officer	Withheld for tax	231	33,250	Form 4
2026-02-12	Alcala Alejandro	officer	Withheld for tax	198	37,192	Form 4
2026-02-12	Polmanteer Tamara S.	officer	Withheld for tax	140	8,891	Form 4
2026-02-12	Papanikolaou Marijane V.	officer	Withheld for tax	47	688	Form 4
2026-02-12	Papanikolaou Marijane V.	officer	Option exercise	100	1,684	Form 4
2026-02-12	Polmanteer Tamara S.	officer	Option exercise	301	2,368	Form 4
2026-02-12	Papanikolaou Marijane V.	officer	Option exercise	100	735	Form 4
2026-02-12	D'Iorio Anthony M.	officer	Option exercise	451	33,481	Form 4
2026-02-12	D'Iorio Anthony M.	officer	Option exercise	451	3,587	Form 4
2026-02-12	Alcala Alejandro	officer	Option exercise	501	6,841	Form 4
2026-02-12	Polmanteer Tamara S.	officer	Option exercise	301	9,031	Form 4
2026-02-12	MITCHELL MAX H	director	Option exercise	2,260	416,507	Form 4
2026-02-12	MITCHELL MAX H	director	Option exercise	2,260	15,412	Form 4
2026-02-12	Maue Richard A	director	Option exercise	651	74,096	Form 4
2026-02-12	Maue Richard A	director	Option exercise	651	5,128	Form 4
2026-02-12	Feldman Jason D.	officer	Option exercise	501	10,895	Form 4
2026-02-12	Feldman Jason D.	officer	Option exercise	501	2,512	Form 4
2026-02-12	Alcala Alejandro	officer	Option exercise	501	37,390	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Kevin Hern	House	sale	2022-12-08	2022-11-21	$1–15K
Kevin Hern	House	purchase	2021-12-09	2021-11-26	$15–50K
Kevin Hern	House	purchase	2020-08-15	2020-07-27	$1–15K
Kelly Loeffler	Senate	purchase	2020-05-01	2020-04-07	$50–100K
Kelly Loeffler	Senate	sale	2020-05-01	2020-04-07	$100–250K
Kelly Loeffler	Senate	purchase	2020-05-01	2020-03-20	$100–250K
Kelly Loeffler	Senate	purchase	2020-05-01	2020-04-07	$15–50K
Kelly Loeffler	Senate	sale	2020-03-31	2020-03-09	$15–50K
Kevin Hern	House	purchase	2019-11-14	2019-10-15	$1–15K
Nicholas Van Taylor	House	sale	2019-04-15	2019-03-25	$1–15K
Thomas Macarthur	House	sale	2018-12-06	2018-10-09	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2018-11-09	2018-10-25	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2018-08-10	2018-07-24	$1–15K
Thomas Macarthur	House	sale	2018-06-05	2018-05-11	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i