CPRTCopart, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Dealershipsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $30.82 · now $30.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CPRT has typically landed between $27.33 and $34.72 — a range of −11.3% to +12.6% from the issuance price $30.82.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($30.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CPRT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $30.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$27.33worst · -11.3%$34.72best · +12.6%
  • now $30.82 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $30.82 (+0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $29.18–$32.46
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $27.33–$34.72
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−38.3%−38.3%+0.0%
2020-02-20−38.2%−38.2%+0.0%
2020-02-13−35.6%−35.6%+1.1%
3 best
2020-04-21+31.0%+0.0%+31.0%
2020-04-03+28.9%+0.0%+34.3%
2020-04-22+26.9%+0.0%+27.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$25.9B
market cap
$1.61
EPS (TTM)
17.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-03
next earnings
Revenue$4.6B
'20'25
Net income$1.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr33.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr16.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.01
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $30.82$24.11$49.77
  • DCF (intrinsic)$25.88
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$38.35
  • Analyst target · range $26.00–$48.00$45.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$30.82

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
−0.3%
n=18
Feb
68%
+3.0%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
63%
+3.1%
n=19
May
63%
+2.4%
n=19
Jun
47%
−1.4%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.0%
n=19
Aug
58%
+2.2%
n=19
Sep
26%
−4.0%
n=19
Oct
67%
+2.5%
n=18
Nov
83%
+5.2%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$50$272026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $846K — Liaw Jeffrey2026-07-13: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — Englander Daniel J2026-04-15: 2 insider sales, $870K — Liaw Jeffrey …2026-01-15: 2 insider sales, $1.0M — Liaw Jeffrey …2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $3.9M — TRYFOROS THOMAS N2025-10-15: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — Liaw Jeffrey …2025-09-15: 1 insider sale, $10.9M — TRYFOROS THOMAS N2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $10.9M2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $3.9M2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $1.0M2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $870K2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $3.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Liaw Jeffrey — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Englander Daniel J — Sale on 2026-07-13, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Liaw Jeffrey — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Liaw Jeffrey — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Liaw Jeffrey — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Liaw Jeffrey — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TRYFOROS THOMAS N — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed same daydirector Liaw Jeffrey — Sale on 2025-10-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Liaw Jeffrey — Sale on 2025-10-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector TRYFOROS THOMAS N — Sale on 2025-09-15, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-28Liaw JeffreydirectorSale27,745 @ $30.49$846K−21.8% of holding+3.0%not yet — horizon still open99,641Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-13Englander Daniel JdirectorSale80,000 @ $27.55$2.2M−22.5% of holding+4.2%not yet — horizon still open275,352Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-15Liaw JeffreydirectorSale23,870 @ $33.18$792K−22.6% of holding−9.0%not yet — horizon still open81,875Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-15Liaw JeffreydirectorSale2,343 @ $33.17$78K−2.9% of holding−9.0%not yet — horizon still open79,532Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-15Liaw JeffreydirectorSale22,693 @ $40.17$912K−28.8% of holding−7.7%−41.1%55,970Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-15Liaw JeffreydirectorSale2,444 @ $40.17$98K−3.0% of holding−7.7%−41.1%78,663Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25TRYFOROS THOMAS NdirectorSale100,000 @ $39.07$3.9M−100.0% of holding−2.0%−28.8%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-15Liaw JeffreydirectorSale22,086 @ $44.79$989K−41.3% of holding−7.6%−32.3%31,332Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-15Liaw JeffreydirectorSale2,197 @ $44.80$98K−4.0% of holding−7.6%−32.3%53,418Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-15TRYFOROS THOMAS NdirectorSale228,840 @ $47.54$10.9M−100.0% of holding−6.4%−30.5%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-15Liaw JeffreydirectorSale18,288 @ $46.35$848K−34.2% of holding+0.2%−25.3%35,143Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-15Liaw JeffreydirectorSale3,616 @ $46.84$169K−10.3% of holding+0.2%−25.3%31,527Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-15Liaw JeffreydirectorSale1,884 @ $46.35$87K−3.4% of holding+0.2%−25.3%53,731Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-15Liaw JeffreydirectorSale300 @ $46.90$14K−0.6% of holding+0.2%−25.3%53,431Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-14COHAN STEVEN DdirectorSale94,997 @ $60.01$5.7M−100.0% of holding−4.7%−48.7%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-11COHAN STEVEN DdirectorSale5,003 @ $60.01$300K−100.0% of holding−5.6%−51.2%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-19MEEKS JAMES EdirectorSale100,000 @ $54.00$5.4M−100.0% of holding+17.7%−33.1%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-06Englander Daniel JdirectorSale235,480 @ $56.84$13.4M−100.0% of holding+2.8%−20.9%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-03Englander Daniel JdirectorSale84,520 @ $57.10$4.8M−100.0% of holding+1.1%−22.3%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-02Blunt MattdirectorSale50,000 @ $57.66$2.9M−100.0% of holding−0.2%−20.6%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-23Morefield Diane MdirectorSale30,000 @ $58.01$1.7M−60.0% of holding−2.0%−21.5%20,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-05TRYFOROS THOMAS NdirectorSale83,310 @ $61.86$5.2M−91.4% of holding−6.5%−18.8%7,850Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

103 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-16Pocock JaneofficerAward / grant25,30825,308Form 4
2026-08-16Pocock JaneofficerAward / grant500,000500,000Form 4
2026-08-16STEARNS LEAH CofficerAward / grant12,65412,654Form 4
2026-08-16STEARNS LEAH CofficerAward / grant200,000200,000Form 4
2026-08-13Berger David JoeldirectorAward / grant24,34124,341Form 4
2026-07-28Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise43,166127,386Form 4
2026-07-28Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise3,59184,220Form 4
2026-07-28Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise3,5910Form 4
2026-07-28Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise43,166178,718Form 4
2026-07-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise1,27780,809Form 4
2026-07-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise81281,621Form 4
2026-07-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise1,277221,884Form 4
2026-07-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise812182,718Form 4
2026-07-13Englander Daniel JdirectorOther acquisition40,000235,352Form 4
2026-07-08Morefield Diane MdirectorOption exercise50,00050,000Form 4
2026-07-08Morefield Diane MdirectorOption exercise50,0000Form 4
2026-04-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise43,166103,659Form 4
2026-04-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise4,52360,493Form 4
2026-04-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise1,277105,745Form 4
2026-04-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise809104,468Form 4
2026-04-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise43,166223,505Form 4
2026-04-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise1,2774,868Form 4
2026-04-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise809222,696Form 4
2026-04-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise4,5236,145Form 4
2026-01-20ADAIR A JAYSONdirectorGift21,200254,400Form 4
2026-01-20ADAIR A JAYSONdirectorGift21,200318,000Form 4
2026-01-20ADAIR A JAYSONdirectorGift7,76114,174,859Form 4
2026-01-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise43,16679,021Form 4
2026-01-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise4,52335,855Form 4
2026-01-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise1,27781,107Form 4
2026-01-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise80979,830Form 4
2026-01-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise80910,668Form 4
2026-01-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise1,277266,671Form 4
2026-01-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise43,166267,948Form 4
2026-01-15Liaw JeffreydirectorOption exercise4,52311,477Form 4
2025-12-30TRYFOROS THOMAS NdirectorGift27,850413,785Form 4
2025-12-30TRYFOROS THOMAS NdirectorGift27,85027,850Form 4
2025-12-05JOHNSON WILLIS JdirectorAward / grant17,81317,813Form 4
2025-12-05COHAN STEVEN DdirectorAward / grant17,81317,813Form 4
2025-12-05TRYFOROS THOMAS NdirectorAward / grant17,81317,813Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.