CPRICapri Holdings Limitedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.73 · now $14.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CPRI has typically landed between $11.50 and $18.07 — a range of −21.9% to +22.7% from the issuance price $14.73.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,675 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-12-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CPRI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$11.5worst · -21.9%$18.07best · +22.7%
  • now $14.73 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.48 (-1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.2–$15.76
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.5–$18.07
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,675 windows spanning 2011-12-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−73.3%−73.3%+2.4%
2020-02-14−71.5%−71.5%+0.8%
2020-03-04−67.7%−70.1%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+71.9%+0.0%+91.6%
2020-04-02+70.7%+0.0%+103.7%
2020-10-28+69.4%−0.1%+75.4%

3,675 overlapping windows · 2011-12-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+1.7%
n=15
Feb
47%
+3.5%
n=15
Mar
33%
−6.9%
n=15
Apr
33%
−1.3%
n=15
May
33%
−6.3%
n=15
Jun
60%
+1.5%
n=15
Jul
60%
+0.9%
n=15
Aug
67%
+5.5%
n=15
Sep
47%
+1.5%
n=15
Oct
64%
−0.9%
n=14
Nov
64%
+11.5%
n=14
Dec
36%
−0.4%
n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$28$132026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $349K — Reitman Stephen F2026-05-29: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — McDonough Krista A2026-03-11: 1 insider purchase, $989K — IDOL JOHN D2025-12-09: 1 insider sale, $260K — Mehta Rajal2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $260K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $989K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $1.7M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $349K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Reitman Stephen F — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer McDonough Krista A — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector IDOL JOHN D — Purchase on 2026-03-11, filed same dayofficer Mehta Rajal — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-08Reitman Stephen FdirectorSale17,981 @ $19.42$349K−100.0% of holding−8.7%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-29McDonough Krista AofficerSale92,236 @ $18.51$1.7M−100.0% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-11IDOL JOHN DdirectorPurchase55,000 @ $17.98$989K+2.5% of holding+10.6%not yet — horizon still open2,257,645Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-09Mehta RajalofficerSale10,000 @ $25.96$260K−93.1% of holding−1.2%−28.2%741Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

155 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-29Reitman Stephen FdirectorWithheld for tax4,4923,934Form 4
2026-07-29Tomlin JeandirectorWithheld for tax3,96131,885Form 4
2026-07-29Freestone Robin Anthony DaviddirectorWithheld for tax3,96125,858Form 4
2026-07-29Gibbons JudydirectorWithheld for tax3,96135,842Form 4
2026-07-29THOMPSON JANE A.directorWithheld for tax3,96130,889Form 4
2026-07-29Tomlin JeandirectorAward / grant11,05511,055Form 4
2026-07-29Crouther Marilyn CdirectorAward / grant11,05511,055Form 4
2026-07-29Gibbons JudydirectorOption exercise8,4260Form 4
2026-07-29Gibbons JudydirectorAward / grant11,05511,055Form 4
2026-07-29Crouther Marilyn CdirectorOption exercise8,4260Form 4
2026-07-29Madhavan MaheshdirectorOption exercise8,4260Form 4
2026-07-29Madhavan MaheshdirectorAward / grant11,05511,055Form 4
2026-07-29Reitman Stephen FdirectorOption exercise8,4260Form 4
2026-07-29Freestone Robin Anthony DaviddirectorOption exercise8,4260Form 4
2026-07-29THOMPSON JANE A.directorOption exercise8,4260Form 4
2026-07-29THOMPSON JANE A.directorAward / grant11,05511,055Form 4
2026-07-29Freestone Robin Anthony DaviddirectorAward / grant11,05511,055Form 4
2026-07-29Tomlin JeandirectorOption exercise8,4260Form 4
2026-07-29Crouther Marilyn CdirectorOption exercise8,42624,212Form 4
2026-07-29Freestone Robin Anthony DaviddirectorOption exercise8,42629,819Form 4
2026-07-29Gibbons JudydirectorOption exercise8,42639,803Form 4
2026-07-29Madhavan MaheshdirectorOption exercise8,42619,204Form 4
2026-07-29Reitman Stephen FdirectorOption exercise8,4268,426Form 4
2026-07-29THOMPSON JANE A.directorOption exercise8,42634,850Form 4
2026-07-29Tomlin JeandirectorOption exercise8,42635,846Form 4
2026-07-29Crouther Marilyn CdirectorOption exercise8,42624,212Form 4
2026-07-29Freestone Robin Anthony DaviddirectorOption exercise8,42629,819Form 4
2026-07-29Gibbons JudydirectorOption exercise8,42639,803Form 4
2026-07-29Madhavan MaheshdirectorOption exercise8,42619,204Form 4
2026-07-29Reitman Stephen FdirectorOption exercise8,4268,426Form 4
2026-07-29THOMPSON JANE A.directorOption exercise8,42634,850Form 4
2026-07-29Tomlin JeandirectorOption exercise8,42635,846Form 4
2026-06-17IDOL JOHN DdirectorWithheld for tax25,4131,384,806Form 4
2026-06-17Hendricks JennaofficerWithheld for tax5,401101,911Form 4
2026-06-17McDonough Krista AofficerWithheld for tax4,99630,966Form 4
2026-06-17Hendricks JennaofficerOption exercise9,766107,312Form 4
2026-06-17Hendricks JennaofficerOption exercise9,76619,531Form 4
2026-06-17IDOL JOHN DdirectorOption exercise52,1821,410,219Form 4
2026-06-17IDOL JOHN DdirectorOption exercise52,182104,364Form 4
2026-06-17McDonough Krista AofficerOption exercise9,76635,962Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-11$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-05-062025-04-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-06-122023-05-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-04-072023-03-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-12-062022-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-06-102022-05-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-04-202020-03-05$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2020-04-162020-03-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-09-112019-08-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-07-112019-06-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-04-112019-03-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-03-082019-02-20$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.