Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.40 · now $14.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CPNG has typically landed between $11.57 and $17.52 — a range of −19.6% to +21.7% from the issuance price $14.40.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,365 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-03-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CPNG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $14.4 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.21 (-1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.08–$15.34
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.57–$17.52
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,365 windows spanning 2021-03-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-07 | −47.3% | −47.3% | +0.2% |
| 2022-04-11 | −43.9% | −45.8% | +0.5% |
| 2022-04-08 | −40.5% | −47.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-06-17 | +57.7% | −1.4% | +57.7% |
| 2022-06-16 | +56.4% | +0.0% | +56.4% |
| 2022-06-21 | +53.6% | −4.5% | +53.6% |
1,365 overlapping windows · 2021-03-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−7.1%
n=5
Feb
60%
+9.4%
n=5
Mar
20%
−8.5%
n=5
Apr
67%
+0.2%
n=6
May
50%
−0.1%
n=6
Jun
67%
+2.0%
n=6
Jul
33%
+3.0%
n=6
Aug
33%
−2.2%
n=6
Sep
33%
−0.9%
n=6
Oct
60%
+3.0%
n=5
Nov
20%
−4.4%
n=5
Dec
40%
−7.4%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Rogers Harold | officer | Sale | 192,110 @ $16.18 | $3.1M | −20.6% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 740,931 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Lee Jonathan D. | officer | Sale | 5,519 @ $16.10 | $89K | −2.9% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,915 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | MEHTA NEIL | director | Purchase | 2,332,863 @ $18.40 | $42.9M | +4.4% of holding | +7.2% | −33.6% | 55,310,977 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | MEHTA NEIL | director | Purchase | 3,000,000 @ $18.68 | $56.0M | +6.0% of holding | +5.4% | −33.8% | 52,978,114 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | MEHTA NEIL | director | Purchase | 2,017,241 @ $18.64 | $37.6M | +4.2% of holding | +4.5% | −34.5% | 49,978,114 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Lee Jonathan D. | officer | Sale | 2,679 @ $23.62 | $63K | −2.1% of holding | −18.1% | −30.7% | 122,096 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | Anand Gaurav | officer | Sale | 75,350 @ $29.02 | $2.2M | −3.7% of holding | −10.8% | −54.4% | 1,941,590 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Kolari Pranam | officer | Sale | 11,653 @ $31.98 | $373K | −7.3% of holding | −17.0% | −52.1% | 147,023 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Rogers Harold | officer | Sale | 64,755 @ $32.06 | $2.1M | −12.6% of holding | −3.3% | −44.4% | 449,569 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Franceschi Pedro | director | Sale | 21,428 @ $32.05 | $687K | −100.0% of holding | −3.3% | −44.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Sun Benjamin | director | Sale | 785,915 @ $31.86 | $25.0M | −59.6% of holding | −4.3% | −46.5% | 533,506 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Sun Benjamin | director | Sale | 29,882 @ $32.35 | $967K | −5.6% of holding | −4.3% | −46.5% | 503,624 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | SVF Investments (UK) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20,000,000 @ $28.00 | $560.0M | −6.5% of holding | +9.6% | −43.7% | 289,542,259 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Anand Gaurav | officer | Sale | 75,350 @ $27.79 | $2.1M | −3.6% of holding | +13.5% | −43.5% | 2,016,940 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Kolari Pranam | officer | Sale | 11,653 @ $29.14 | $340K | −6.8% of holding | −6.4% | −44.6% | 158,676 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-13 | SVF Investments (UK) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,000,000 @ $28.25 | $282.5M | −3.1% of holding | +6.2% | −23.6% | 309,542,259 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | Anand Gaurav | officer | Sale | 175,000 @ $28.11 | $4.9M | −7.7% of holding | +2.4% | −15.9% | 2,092,290 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Sun Benjamin | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $28.36 | $5.7M | −13.2% of holding | +3.9% | −17.4% | 1,319,421 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | GREENOAKS CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC | director | Purchase | 650,000 @ $26.86 | $17.5M | +1.2% of holding | +3.5% | −8.2% | 55,131,161 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | GREENOAKS CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC | director | Purchase | 750,000 @ $26.78 | $20.1M | +1.4% of holding | +2.8% | −9.8% | 54,481,161 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Anand Gaurav | officer | Sale | 75,350 @ $26.10 | $2.0M | −3.2% of holding | +5.0% | −6.9% | 2,267,290 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | SVF Investments (UK) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 30,000,000 @ $25.75 | $772.5M | −8.6% of holding | +5.0% | −6.2% | 319,542,259 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Sun Benjamin | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $26.03 | $5.2M | −11.6% of holding | +5.0% | −6.2% | 1,519,421 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Kang Hanseung | officer | Sale | 69,931 @ $26.17 | $1.8M | −10.4% of holding | +5.0% | −6.2% | 599,841 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Lee Jonathan D. | officer | Sale | 8,105 @ $26.17 | $212K | −6.1% of holding | +5.0% | −6.2% | 124,775 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Kolari Pranam | officer | Sale | 6,777 @ $26.17 | $177K | −3.8% of holding | +5.0% | −6.2% | 170,329 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Kolari Pranam | officer | Sale | 9,347 @ $23.85 | $223K | −5.0% of holding | +11.9% | +11.6% | 177,106 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-02 | Kolari Pranam | officer | Sale | 675 @ $21.94 | $15K | −0.4% of holding | +6.8% | +25.5% | 186,453 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Sun Benjamin | director | Sale | 218,813 @ $23.51 | $5.1M | −11.3% of holding | −3.8% | +24.6% | 1,719,421 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Kang Hanseung | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $23.00 | $920K | −5.6% of holding | −3.8% | +24.6% | 669,772 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Sun Benjamin | director | Sale | 31,187 @ $22.82 | $712K | −1.6% of holding | −3.8% | +24.6% | 1,938,234 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Anand Gaurav | officer | Sale | 75,350 @ $22.03 | $1.7M | −3.1% of holding | +1.6% | +30.9% | 2,342,640 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Rogers Harold | officer | Sale | 273,977 @ $23.50 | $6.4M | −34.8% of holding | −2.8% | +7.8% | 514,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Kolari Pranam | officer | Sale | 7,172 @ $24.76 | $178K | −5.2% of holding | −0.9% | +9.3% | 129,634 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Kolari Pranam | officer | Sale | 8,459 @ $22.98 | $194K | −5.8% of holding | +4.2% | +21.1% | 136,806 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Kolari Pranam | officer | Sale | 775 @ $22.10 | $17K | −0.5% of holding | +3.4% | +27.8% | 145,265 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
35 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Franceschi Pedro | director | Award / grant | 17,971 | 93,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | MEHTA NEIL | director | Award / grant | 17,391 | 96,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Sun Benjamin | director | Award / grant | 19,275 | 338,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Toubassy Ambereen | director | Award / grant | 19,565 | 69,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Sharma Asha | director | Award / grant | 17,971 | 43,169 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Child Jason | director | Award / grant | 21,304 | 98,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Toubassy Ambereen | director | Award / grant | 69 | 50,382 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Rogers Harold | officer | Award / grant | 213,884 | 933,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Anand Gaurav | officer | Award / grant | 260,402 | 2,392,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Child Jason | director | Award / grant | 1,147 | 77,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Sun Benjamin | director | Award / grant | 706 | 318,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Anand Gaurav | officer | Award / grant | 190,738 | 2,132,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Rogers Harold | officer | Award / grant | 21,672 | 471,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Rogers Harold | officer | Award / grant | 247,916 | 719,157 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Sharma Asha | director | Award / grant | 10,950 | 25,198 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Child Jason | director | Award / grant | 353 | 76,393 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Toubassy Ambereen | director | Award / grant | 353 | 50,313 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Warsh Kevin M | director | Award / grant | 11,480 | 470,582 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Sun Benjamin | director | Award / grant | 11,303 | 318,353 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Child Jason | director | Award / grant | 11,480 | 76,040 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Toubassy Ambereen | director | Award / grant | 11,038 | 49,960 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | MEHTA NEIL | director | Award / grant | 12,451 | 80,091 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Franceschi Pedro | director | Award / grant | 10,950 | 75,602 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-08 | GREENOAKS CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC | director | Other acquisition | 4,660,361 | 53,731,161 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-08 | GREENOAKS CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC | director | Other acquisition | 4,660,361 | 53,731,161 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | GREENOAKS CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC | director | Other acquisition | 5,465,099 | 58,391,522 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Kolari Pranam | officer | Award / grant | 57,494 | 187,128 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Toubassy Ambereen | director | Award / grant | 88 | 38,922 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Child Jason | director | Award / grant | 88 | 64,560 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Lee Jonathan D. | officer | Award / grant | 12,045 | 132,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Kang Hanseung | officer | Award / grant | 131,258 | 709,772 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Anand Gaurav | officer | Award / grant | 480,490 | 2,417,990 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Rogers Harold | officer | Award / grant | 168,361 | 788,301 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Rogers Harold | officer | Award / grant | 177,982 | 619,940 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Kang Hanseung | officer | Award / grant | 34,036 | 578,514 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.