CPFCentral Pacific Financial Corp.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $37.55 · now $37.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CPF has typically landed between $33.35 and $42.78 — a range of −11.2% to +13.9% from the issuance price $37.55.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($37.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CPF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $37.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$33.35worst · -11.2%$42.78best · +13.9%
  • now $37.55 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $37.89 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.74–$40.04
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $33.35–$42.78
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-10-28−63.8%−63.8%+0.0%
2009-10-19−60.7%−60.7%+0.4%
2009-10-15−60.5%−60.5%+0.0%
3 best
2010-03-23+113.4%+0.0%+113.4%
2008-08-20+101.7%−2.3%+101.7%
2010-03-24+91.4%−5.1%+91.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+1.2%
n=20
Feb
40%
−4.0%
n=20
Mar
55%
+1.0%
n=20
Apr
60%
+0.5%
n=20
May
60%
−0.4%
n=20
Jun
45%
−3.8%
n=20
Jul
40%
−1.0%
n=20
Aug
45%
+1.2%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.1%
n=20
Oct
60%
−2.1%
n=20
Nov
75%
+2.1%
n=20
Dec
60%
+3.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$40$272025-09-12: 1 insider sale, $102K — Ngo Agnes Catherine2025-08-14: 1 insider sale, $26K — KOSASA PAUL2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $93K — Ngo Agnes Catherine2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $192K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $102K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Ngo Agnes Catherine — Sale on 2025-09-12, filed same daydirector KOSASA PAUL — Sale on 2025-08-14, filed 15 days after the tradedirector Ngo Agnes Catherine — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-09-12Ngo Agnes CatherinedirectorSale3,333 @ $30.66$102K−5.2% of holding−7.0%−0.5%60,514Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-14KOSASA PAULdirectorSale923 @ $28.63$26K−100.0% of holding+4.6%+14.5%0Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade
2025-08-12Ngo Agnes CatherinedirectorSale3,333 @ $27.87$93K−4.8% of holding+8.9%+15.0%65,459Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-01Yonamine Paul KdirectorSale2,765 @ $26.25$73K−16.3% of holding+16.3%+15.9%14,181Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-14Ngo Agnes CatherinedirectorSale3,333 @ $29.20$97K−4.6% of holding−7.5%−3.7%68,792Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-01Yonamine Paul KdirectorSale2,765 @ $28.00$77K−14.0% of holding−9.7%+0.3%16,946Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-12Ngo Agnes CatherinedirectorSale3,333 @ $26.99$90K−4.4% of holding−0.3%+5.5%72,125Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-05Yonamine Paul KdirectorSale2,765 @ $26.31$73K−12.3% of holding+7.0%+2.4%19,711Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12Ngo Agnes CatherinedirectorSale3,333 @ $27.71$92K−4.4% of holding−3.6%−9.2%72,922Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

93 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Martines Arnold DofficerGift2,7503,940Form 4
2026-05-15Nobriga RobertdirectorAward / grant2,3038,580Form 4
2026-05-15Kindred Jonathan BdirectorAward / grant2,22816,178Form 4
2026-05-15FRY EARL EdirectorAward / grant2,11712,999Form 4
2026-05-15Ota Saedene KdirectorAward / grant2,11715,931Form 4
2026-05-15Lutes ChristopherdirectorAward / grant2,08023,684Form 4
2026-05-15Paloma Diane S.L.directorAward / grant2,0804,870Form 4
2026-05-15KOSASA PAULdirectorAward / grant1,85774,569Form 4
2026-05-15Fujimoto JasondirectorAward / grant1,85712,192Form 4
2026-05-15Rose CrystaldirectorAward / grant1,85716,882Form 4
2026-02-17Martines Arnold DofficerWithheld for tax6,3247,060Form 4
2026-02-17Morimoto DavidofficerWithheld for tax3,3714,375Form 4
2026-02-17Martines Arnold DofficerWithheld for tax3,15214,702Form 4
2026-02-17Martines Arnold DofficerWithheld for tax2,1098,398Form 4
2026-02-17Martines Arnold DofficerWithheld for tax2,05610,996Form 4
2026-02-17Morimoto DavidofficerWithheld for tax1,3199,623Form 4
2026-02-17Morimoto DavidofficerWithheld for tax8335,247Form 4
2026-02-17Morimoto DavidofficerWithheld for tax7135,918Form 4
2026-02-17Mesick RalphofficerWithheld for tax5484,542Form 4
2026-02-17Matsumoto Dayna NofficerWithheld for tax340712Form 4
2026-02-17Matsumoto Dayna NofficerWithheld for tax3282,720Form 4
2026-02-17Matsumoto Dayna NofficerWithheld for tax161837Form 4
2026-02-17Matsumoto Dayna NofficerWithheld for tax114237Form 4
2026-02-17Martines Arnold DofficerAward / grant11,63511,635Form 4
2026-02-17Matsumoto Dayna NofficerAward / grant2,9742,974Form 4
2026-02-17Mesick RalphofficerAward / grant4,5284,528Form 4
2026-02-17Morimoto DavidofficerAward / grant5,8985,898Form 4
2026-02-17Morimoto DavidofficerAward / grant7,7467,746Form 4
2026-02-17Martines Arnold DofficerAward / grant13,38413,384Form 4
2026-02-17Matsumoto Dayna NofficerAward / grant1,0521,052Form 4
2025-09-03Ngo Agnes CatherinedirectorGift1,61263,847Form 4
2025-07-31Martines Arnold DofficerGift4,0001,335Form 4
2025-05-15Rose CrystaldirectorAward / grant2,80715,025Form 4
2025-05-15Kindred Jonathan BdirectorAward / grant2,71713,950Form 4
2025-05-15Ota Saedene KdirectorAward / grant2,58113,814Form 4
2025-05-15FRY EARL EdirectorAward / grant2,58110,882Form 4
2025-05-15KOSASA PAULdirectorAward / grant2,53672,712Form 4
2025-05-15Ngo Agnes CatherinedirectorAward / grant2,53675,458Form 4
2025-05-15Lutes ChristopherdirectorAward / grant2,26421,604Form 4
2025-05-15Nobriga RobertdirectorAward / grant2,2646,277Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.