CPBCampbell Soup Companyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.39 · now $21.39 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CPB has typically landed between $19.33 and $23.40 — a range of −9.6% to +9.4% from the issuance price $21.39.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.39) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CPB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.39 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$19.33worst · -9.6%$23.4best · +9.4%
  • now $21.39 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.36 (-0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.45–$22.28
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.33–$23.4
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-11-13−27.0%−27.0%+0.0%
2026-02-13−26.8%−27.5%+0.0%
2026-02-12−26.3%−26.3%+1.6%
3 best
2018-06-06+26.3%+0.0%+27.2%
2018-06-05+24.5%−0.4%+26.7%
2018-06-07+24.1%+0.0%+26.1%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.5%
n=18
Feb
58%
−0.1%
n=19
Mar
68%
+2.0%
n=19
Apr
58%
+0.0%
n=19
May
47%
−1.7%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.3%
n=19
Jul
74%
+1.4%
n=19
Aug
58%
+0.3%
n=19
Sep
37%
−2.0%
n=19
Oct
50%
+1.0%
n=18
Nov
67%
+0.6%
n=18
Dec
50%
−0.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$32$202026-06-09: 1 insider purchase, $2K — Dorrance Bennett JR2026-01-09: 1 insider sale, $72K — Sanzio Anthony2025-12-30: 1 insider sale, $325K — Brawley Charles A. III2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $325K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $72K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $2K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Dorrance Bennett JR — Purchase on 2026-06-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sanzio Anthony — Sale on 2026-01-09, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Brawley Charles A. III — Sale on 2025-12-30, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-09Dorrance Bennett JRdirectorPurchase100 @ $21.45$2Kownership Δ n/a−1.3%not yet — horizon still open100Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-09Sanzio AnthonyofficerSale2,700 @ $26.51$72K−9.7% of holding+10.6%−22.3%25,264Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-30Brawley Charles A. IIIofficerSale11,550 @ $28.14$325K−20.9% of holding+0.5%−21.6%43,777Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-31Brawley Charles A. IIIofficerSale2,498 @ $40.03$100K−6.2% of holding−6.9%−38.9%37,590Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-03Sanzio AnthonyofficerSale2,000 @ $41.90$84K−10.8% of holding−12.7%−30.8%16,551Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

118 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-29Lautenbach Marc BradleydirectorAward / grant1,95048,756Form 4
2026-06-29Averill Howard MdirectorAward / grant1,97739,343Form 4
2026-06-29Hilado Maria TeresadirectorAward / grant1,96441,986Form 4
2026-06-29Schmidt KurtdirectorAward / grant3,10758,634Form 4
2026-06-29Hofstetter SarahdirectorAward / grant1,81433,865Form 4
2026-06-29Hill GrantdirectorAward / grant3,10739,011Form 4
2026-06-29ARREDONDO FABIOLA RdirectorAward / grant1,85533,627Form 4
2026-06-29Dorrance Bennett JRdirectorAward / grant1,855574,265Form 4
2026-06-29Malone Mary Alice Dorrance JRdirectorAward / grant1,81484,268Form 4
2026-06-29McLoughlin Keith RdirectorAward / grant3,71671,460Form 4
2026-06-29vanBeuren Archbold DdirectorAward / grant1,964609,041Form 4
2026-04-01Cretella RisaofficerWithheld for tax6,543105,120Form 4
2026-03-31Amendment & Restatement of Agreement of Trust of Mary Alice Dorrance Malone dated April 17, 1990otherOther acquisition17,274,20051,045,671Form 4
2026-03-30vanBeuren Archbold DdirectorAward / grant2,037607,077Form 4
2026-03-30Lautenbach Marc BradleydirectorAward / grant2,02345,932Form 4
2026-03-30McLoughlin Keith RdirectorAward / grant3,85566,480Form 4
2026-03-30Hilado Maria TeresadirectorAward / grant2,03739,275Form 4
2026-03-30Averill Howard MdirectorAward / grant2,05136,668Form 4
2026-03-30Schmidt KurtdirectorAward / grant3,22454,490Form 4
2026-03-30ARREDONDO FABIOLA RdirectorAward / grant1,92531,772Form 4
2026-03-30Hofstetter SarahdirectorAward / grant1,88231,452Form 4
2026-03-30Hill GrantdirectorAward / grant3,22435,244Form 4
2026-03-30Dorrance Bennett JRdirectorAward / grant1,925572,410Form 4
2026-03-30Malone Mary Alice Dorrance JRdirectorAward / grant1,88282,454Form 4
2026-03-01Anand MohitofficerAward / grant21,50521,505Form 4
2026-02-01Poland Daniel LofficerWithheld for tax14,02097,665Form 4
2026-01-06Malone Mary Alice Dorrance JRdirectorOther acquisition26,741,88013,218,457Form 4
2026-01-06Amendment & Restatement of Agreement of Trust of Mary Alice Dorrance Malone dated April 17, 1990otherOther acquisition26,741,88013,218,457Form 4
2025-12-29Schmidt KurtdirectorAward / grant2,54050,551Form 4
2025-12-29Hofstetter SarahdirectorAward / grant1,48329,157Form 4
2025-12-29Dorrance Bennett JRdirectorAward / grant1,516570,485Form 4
2025-12-29Malone Mary Alice Dorrance JRdirectorAward / grant1,48380,572Form 4
2025-12-29Hill GrantdirectorAward / grant2,54031,582Form 4
2025-12-29Lautenbach Marc BradleydirectorAward / grant1,59443,295Form 4
2025-12-29McLoughlin Keith RdirectorAward / grant3,03761,750Form 4
2025-12-29vanBeuren Archbold DdirectorAward / grant1,605605,040Form 4
2025-12-29ARREDONDO FABIOLA RdirectorAward / grant1,51629,847Form 4
2025-12-29Averill Howard MdirectorAward / grant1,61634,133Form 4
2025-12-29Hilado Maria TeresadirectorAward / grant1,60536,718Form 4
2025-12-01Brawley Charles A. IIIofficerWithheld for tax3,37355,327Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-06-082026-05-15$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-01-122025-12-30$50–100K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-01-122025-12-19$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-11$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.