Issued 2026-09-16 at $402.27 · now $402.27 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CPAY has typically landed between $349.93 and $458.06 — a range of −13.0% to +13.9% from the issuance price $402.27.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,940 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-12-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($402.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CPAY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $402.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $402.27 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $409.19 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $384.55–$433.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $349.93–$458.06
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,940 windows spanning 2010-12-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −44.4% | −44.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −41.1% | −41.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −39.8% | −39.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-01 | +34.4% | +0.0% | +43.1% |
| 2020-03-31 | +29.3% | −7.1% | +32.9% |
| 2020-03-30 | +27.8% | −10.7% | +27.8% |
3,940 overlapping windows · 2010-12-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$24.2B
market cap
$16.71
EPS (TTM)
22.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$4.5B
'20'25
Net income$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr23.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr27.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.60
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$611.67
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$571.57
- Analyst target · range $340.00–$450.00$385.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$402.27
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
69%
+3.4%
n=16
Feb
69%
+5.5%
n=16
Mar
50%
−1.1%
n=16
Apr
75%
+3.9%
n=16
May
38%
+0.4%
n=16
Jun
44%
−1.5%
n=16
Jul
75%
+3.8%
n=16
Aug
63%
+3.6%
n=16
Sep
31%
−2.0%
n=16
Oct
67%
+0.2%
n=15
Nov
80%
+4.4%
n=15
Dec
47%
−0.1%
n=15
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Clarke Ronald | director | Sale | 50,504 @ $412.58 | $20.8M | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,388,774 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | Clarke Ronald | director | Sale | 24,670 @ $413.42 | $10.2M | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,364,104 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | Clarke Ronald | director | Sale | 15,575 @ $411.49 | $6.4M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,439,278 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | Clarke Ronald | director | Sale | 12,109 @ $410.56 | $5.0M | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,454,853 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | Clarke Ronald | director | Sale | 9,581 @ $414.57 | $4.0M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,354,523 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | Clarke Ronald | director | Sale | 6,854 @ $409.56 | $2.8M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,466,962 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | Clarke Ronald | director | Sale | 193 @ $415.11 | $80K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,354,330 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Clarke Ronald | director | Sale | 51,919 @ $415.12 | $21.6M | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,510,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Clarke Ronald | director | Sale | 16,540 @ $415.82 | $6.9M | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,493,849 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Clarke Ronald | director | Sale | 8,409 @ $417.29 | $3.5M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,485,440 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Clarke Ronald | director | Sale | 7,545 @ $418.08 | $3.2M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,477,895 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Clarke Ronald | director | Sale | 5,882 @ $414.16 | $2.4M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,562,308 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Clarke Ronald | director | Sale | 4,039 @ $418.86 | $1.7M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,473,856 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Clarke Ronald | director | Sale | 40 @ $419.62 | $17K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,473,816 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | King Alan | officer | Sale | 3,805 @ $416.61 | $1.6M | −15.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,732 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | King Alan | officer | Sale | 9,928 @ $415.07 | $4.1M | −28.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,795 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | King Alan | officer | Sale | 8,237 @ $414.08 | $3.4M | −19.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,723 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Stull Steven T | director | Sale | 889 @ $413.67 | $368K | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,830 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Stull Steven T | director | Sale | 879 @ $412.91 | $363K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,719 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Stull Steven T | director | Sale | 589 @ $414.62 | $244K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,241 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | King Alan | officer | Sale | 258 @ $415.70 | $107K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Stull Steven T | director | Sale | 1,960 @ $411.81 | $807K | −7.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,638 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Stull Steven T | director | Sale | 1,640 @ $409.34 | $671K | −6.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,958 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Stull Steven T | director | Sale | 360 @ $410.24 | $148K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,598 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Stull Steven T | director | Sale | 40 @ $412.42 | $16K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,598 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | King Alan | officer | Sale | 9,600 @ $410.00 | $3.9M | −28.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,537 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | King Alan | officer | Sale | 3,800 @ $412.10 | $1.6M | −13.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,537 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | King Alan | officer | Sale | 2,617 @ $410.88 | $1.1M | −8.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,337 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | King Alan | officer | Sale | 2,463 @ $410.12 | $1.0M | −9.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,537 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Stull Steven T | director | Sale | 455 @ $410.19 | $187K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,786 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Stull Steven T | director | Sale | 188 @ $411.88 | $77K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,598 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | King Alan | officer | Sale | 183 @ $410.09 | $75K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,954 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | King Alan | officer | Sale | 7,122 @ $419.58 | $3.0M | −22.5% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,537 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Farrelly Joseph W | director | Sale | 1,751 @ $415.03 | $727K | −20.2% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,912 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Farrelly Joseph W | director | Sale | 1,800 @ $405.09 | $729K | −14.7% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,412 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Farrelly Joseph W | director | Sale | 1,749 @ $410.02 | $717K | −16.8% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,663 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Netto Armando Lins | officer | Sale | 70,476 @ $352.13 | $24.8M | −86.2% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,274 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Netto Armando Lins | officer | Sale | 4,560 @ $351.60 | $1.6M | −28.8% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,274 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Stull Steven T | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $360.78 | $361K | −3.4% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,241 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Netto Armando Lins | officer | Sale | 2,694 @ $357.01 | $962K | −14.5% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,834 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | Netto Armando Lins | officer | Sale | 14,089 @ $356.05 | $5.0M | −43.2% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,528 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Netto Armando Lins | officer | Sale | 418 @ $355.08 | $148K | −1.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,617 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Sloan Jeffrey Steven | director | Sale | 3,600 @ $343.62 | $1.2M | −22.4% of holding | −13.4% | +5.8% | 12,474 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Vickery Alissa B | officer | Sale | 976 @ $358.91 | $350K | −25.1% of holding | −6.0% | +2.8% | 2,905 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Vickery Alissa B | officer | Sale | 725 @ $358.31 | $260K | −25.0% of holding | −6.0% | +2.8% | 2,180 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Stull Steven T | director | Purchase | 8,000 @ $314.98 | $2.5M | +37.7% of holding | +2.1% | +3.3% | 29,241 | Form 4 · filed 24 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Macchia Richard | director | Sale | 2,427 @ $375.23 | $911K | −16.6% of holding | −3.4% | −24.4% | 12,215 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
158 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Clarke Ronald | director | Withheld for tax | 290,043 | 2,568,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Clarke Ronald | director | Option exercise | 450,000 | 2,858,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Clarke Ronald | director | Option exercise | 450,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | King Alan | officer | Option exercise | 18,423 | 42,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | King Alan | officer | Option exercise | 18,423 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | King Alan | officer | Option exercise | 9,600 | 34,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | King Alan | officer | Option exercise | 6,600 | 31,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | King Alan | officer | Option exercise | 2,463 | 27,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | King Alan | officer | Option exercise | 6,600 | 36,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | King Alan | officer | Option exercise | 9,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | King Alan | officer | Option exercise | 2,463 | 18,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | King Alan | officer | Option exercise | 7,122 | 31,659 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | King Alan | officer | Option exercise | 7,122 | 43,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Netto Armando Lins | officer | Award / grant | 9,405 | 9,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Netto Armando Lins | officer | Award / grant | 9,404 | 9,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Clarke Ronald | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Walker Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,187 | 5,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Walker Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 251 | 5,742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Walker Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 138 | 6,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Walker Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 84 | 6,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Walker Peter | officer | Award / grant | 938 | 6,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Walker Peter | officer | Award / grant | 568 | 5,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Netto Armando Lins | officer | Option exercise | 36,704 | 61,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Netto Armando Lins | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 81,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Netto Armando Lins | officer | Option exercise | 13,259 | 25,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Netto Armando Lins | officer | Option exercise | 513 | 11,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Netto Armando Lins | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Netto Armando Lins | officer | Option exercise | 513 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Netto Armando Lins | officer | Option exercise | 36,704 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Netto Armando Lins | officer | Option exercise | 13,259 | 4,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Clarke Ronald | director | Withheld for tax | 68,150 | 2,408,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Clarke Ronald | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 2,476,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Clarke Ronald | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 650,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Clarke Ronald | director | Withheld for tax | 68,487 | 2,376,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Clarke Ronald | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 2,444,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Clarke Ronald | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 750,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Vickery Alissa B | officer | Withheld for tax | 224 | 2,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Vickery Alissa B | officer | Withheld for tax | 154 | 2,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Vickery Alissa B | officer | Award / grant | 348 | 2,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Vickery Alissa B | officer | Award / grant | 804 | 2,817 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-07-07 | 2026-06-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.