Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.46 · now $4.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, COYA has typically landed between $3.41 and $5.98 — a range of −23.5% to +34.1% from the issuance price $4.46.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
910 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-12-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where COYA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.46 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.44 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.95–$4.92
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.41–$5.98
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-10-28 | −37.4% | −40.8% | +0.0% |
| 2024-10-22 | −37.4% | −37.4% | +5.8% |
| 2024-10-23 | −37.3% | −37.8% | +5.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-31 | +68.6% | −1.2% | +68.6% |
| 2024-09-23 | +64.1% | +0.0% | +64.1% |
| 2024-09-25 | +63.8% | +0.0% | +63.8% |
910 overlapping windows · 2022-12-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
26 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Pavao Mark H | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Swaminathan Arun | director | Award / grant | 293,983 | 293,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | SNYDER DAVID S | officer | Award / grant | 140,041 | 140,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Grossman Fred | officer | Award / grant | 140,041 | 140,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Berman Howard | director | Award / grant | 15,257 | 15,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | ROSS WILBUR L JR | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lee Ann | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Villalobos Anabella | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Weinand Dieter | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | GOLDSTEIN DOV A MD | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | GOLDSTEIN DOV A MD | director | Option exercise | 17,557 | 27,557 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | GOLDSTEIN DOV A MD | director | Option exercise | 17,557 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | Villalobos Anabella | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | GOLDSTEIN DOV A MD | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | Lee Ann | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | ROSS WILBUR L JR | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | Weinand Dieter | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-09 | Berman Howard | director | Award / grant | 150,602 | 150,602 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-09 | Grossman Fred | officer | Award / grant | 140,562 | 140,562 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-09 | Swaminathan Arun | director | Award / grant | 240,964 | 240,964 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-09 | SNYDER DAVID S | officer | Award / grant | 140,562 | 140,562 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | GOLDSTEIN DOV A MD | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | ROSS WILBUR L JR | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Lee Ann | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Villalobos Anabella | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Weinand Dieter | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.