COTYCoty Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.63 · now $2.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, COTY has typically landed between $2.09 and $3.08 — a range of −20.4% to +17.2% from the issuance price $2.63.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,302 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-06-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where COTY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$2.09worst · -20.4%$3.08best · +17.2%
  • now $2.63 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.58 (-2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.38–$2.77
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.09–$3.08
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,302 windows spanning 2013-06-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−67.6%−67.6%+0.0%
2020-02-19−65.0%−67.4%+0.0%
2020-02-20−60.8%−67.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-11-04+156.6%+0.0%+156.6%
2020-11-02+142.3%−1.0%+147.5%
2020-10-29+141.3%−2.7%+153.4%

3,302 overlapping windows · 2013-06-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
38%
−1.3%
n=13
Feb
62%
+6.1%
n=13
Mar
38%
−3.7%
n=13
Apr
38%
+1.4%
n=13
May
31%
−7.5%
n=13
Jun
69%
+7.0%
n=13
Jul
36%
−2.2%
n=14
Aug
43%
−2.4%
n=14
Sep
21%
−6.5%
n=14
Oct
46%
−2.0%
n=13
Nov
54%
+14.1%
n=13
Dec
38%
−1.0%
n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$5$22026-03-06: 1 insider purchase, $200K — von Bretten Gordon2026-02-10: 1 insider purchase, $13K — Mercier Laurent2025-09-03: 1 insider purchase, $127K — Blazewicz Kristin2025-08-26: 1 insider purchase, $12K — Mercier Laurent2025-08-25: 1 insider purchase, $50K — Mercier Laurent2025-08-22: 2 insider purchases, $1.1M — Nabi Sue, Srinivasan Priya2025-08: 4 open-market purchases, $1.2M2025-09: 1 open-market purchase, $127K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $13K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $200K↑ buys↓ salesdirector von Bretten Gordon — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Mercier Laurent — Purchase on 2026-02-10, filed 8 days after the tradeofficer Blazewicz Kristin — Purchase on 2025-09-03, filed same dayofficer Mercier Laurent — Purchase on 2025-08-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mercier Laurent — Purchase on 2025-08-25, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Nabi Sue — Purchase on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Srinivasan Priya — Purchase on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-06von Bretten GordondirectorPurchase83,000 @ $2.41$200K+9.2% of holding−9.3%not yet — horizon still open986,620Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-10Mercier LaurentofficerPurchase5,000 @ $2.65$13K+1.0% of holding−8.8%+0.5%500,031Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2025-09-03Blazewicz KristinofficerPurchase29,400 @ $4.30$127K+3.7% of holding−13.3%−51.0%829,142Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-26Mercier LaurentofficerPurchase3,000 @ $3.84$12K+0.7% of holding+4.2%−35.6%405,216Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-25Mercier LaurentofficerPurchase12,500 @ $3.96$50K+3.2% of holding+0.8%−39.0%402,216Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-22Nabi SuedirectorPurchase260,000 @ $3.92$1.0M+0.8% of holding−1.3%−39.2%32,127,286Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-22Srinivasan PriyaofficerPurchase30,000 @ $3.84$115K+399.5% of holding−1.3%−39.2%37,509Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2023-10-08Ballini BeatricedirectorPurchase20,000 @ $9.28$186Kownership Δ n/a−8.1%−14.4%20,000Form 4 · filed 772 days after the trade
2022-12-12Ballini BeatricedirectorSale7,000 @ $7.90$55K−100.0% of holding+19.0%+41.0%0Form 4 · filed 1072 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

135 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-04-04Srinivasan PriyaofficerOption exercise4,741176,700Form 4
2026-04-04Srinivasan PriyaofficerOption exercise4,741176,700Form 4
2026-04-04Srinivasan PriyaofficerWithheld for tax2,34748,786Form 4
2026-04-04Srinivasan PriyaofficerOption exercise4,74151,133Form 4
2026-04-04Srinivasan PriyaofficerOption exercise4,74151,133Form 4
2026-04-04Srinivasan PriyaofficerWithheld for tax2,34748,786Form 4
2026-03-18Fischer CarstendirectorAward / grant7,1427,142Form 4
2026-03-18Gogi Aalia NighatdirectorAward / grant7,1427,142Form 4
2026-03-18Kunst-Concewitz RobertdirectorAward / grant7,1427,142Form 4
2026-03-18Plaines StephaniedirectorAward / grant7,1427,142Form 4
2026-03-18Plaines StephaniedirectorAward / grant7,1427,142Form 4
2026-03-18Fischer CarstendirectorAward / grant7,1427,142Form 4
2026-03-18Liuni Maria CarladirectorAward / grant7,1427,142Form 4
2026-03-18Kunst-Concewitz RobertdirectorAward / grant7,1427,142Form 4
2026-03-18Gogi Aalia NighatdirectorAward / grant7,1427,142Form 4
2026-03-18Liuni Maria CarladirectorAward / grant7,1427,142Form 4
2026-03-16Strobel MarkusdirectorAward / grant6,000,0006,000,000Form 4
2026-03-16Strobel MarkusdirectorAward / grant1,351,3521,351,352Form 4
2026-03-16Strobel MarkusdirectorAward / grant6,000,0006,000,000Form 4
2026-03-16Strobel MarkusdirectorAward / grant1,351,3521,351,352Form 4
2026-01-01Capel PatriciadirectorAward / grant12,36312,363Form 4
2026-01-01Capel PatriciadirectorAward / grant12,36312,363Form 4
2025-12-22Blazewicz KristinofficerAward / grant86,487389,192Form 4
2025-12-22Mercier LaurentofficerAward / grant111,925506,884Form 4
2025-12-22Srinivasan PriyaofficerAward / grant66,964181,441Form 4
2025-12-22von Bayern AnnaofficerAward / grant61,050274,725Form 4
2025-12-22Srinivasan PriyaofficerAward / grant81,846114,477Form 4
2025-12-22Mercier LaurentofficerAward / grant111,925506,884Form 4
2025-12-22Srinivasan PriyaofficerAward / grant81,846114,477Form 4
2025-12-22Blazewicz KristinofficerAward / grant86,487389,192Form 4
2025-12-22von Bayern AnnaofficerAward / grant61,050274,725Form 4
2025-12-22Srinivasan PriyaofficerAward / grant66,964181,441Form 4
2025-12-18Makanju Anna AdeoladirectorOption exercise13,28713,287Form 4
2025-12-18Makanju Anna AdeoladirectorOption exercise13,28713,287Form 4
2025-12-18Makanju Anna AdeoladirectorOption exercise13,287125,000Form 4
2025-12-18Makanju Anna AdeoladirectorOption exercise13,287125,000Form 4
2025-11-15HARF PETERdirectorOption exercise45,000127,657Form 4
2025-11-15Creus JoachimdirectorOption exercise25,00031,547Form 4
2025-11-15Creus JoachimdirectorOption exercise25,000100,000Form 4
2025-11-15Creus JoachimdirectorAward / grant25,000125,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-07-112023-06-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-06-102022-06-02$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2020-04-162020-03-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-02-102020-01-08$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2020-01-102019-12-06$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousesale2019-09-162019-08-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2019-09-112019-08-14$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2019-06-272019-06-06$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2019-04-302019-03-26$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2019-04-302019-03-25$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2019-04-162019-03-14$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousepurchase2019-04-162019-03-06$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousepurchase2019-03-212019-02-04$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousesale2019-02-182019-01-04$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.