COSTCostco Wholesale CorporationConsumer Defensive · Discount Storesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $893.74 · now $893.74 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, COST has typically landed between $819.06 and $996.01 — a range of −8.4% to +11.4% from the issuance price $893.74.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($893.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where COST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $893.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$819.06worst · -8.4%$996.01best · +11.4%
  • now $893.74 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $908.64 (+1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $869.51–$947.77
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $819.06–$996.01
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-04-20−29.8%−29.8%+0.0%
2022-04-21−29.5%−29.5%+0.0%
2022-04-19−27.6%−27.6%+1.6%
3 best
2009-03-05+23.6%−2.8%+23.6%
2009-03-06+22.5%−1.4%+25.5%
2009-08-20+22.3%+0.0%+22.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$414.7B
market cap
$19.88
EPS (TTM)
47.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-24
next earnings
Revenue$275.2B
'20'25
Net income$8.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$7.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr2.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr27.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.28
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $893.74$233.40$1,352
  • DCF (intrinsic)$310.56
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$485.94
  • Analyst target · range $1,000–$1,275$1,100
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$893.74

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.3%
n=18
Feb
58%
+1.4%
n=19
Mar
58%
+1.9%
n=19
Apr
68%
+2.1%
n=19
May
68%
+0.4%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.5%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.0%
n=19
Aug
58%
+1.8%
n=19
Sep
58%
+1.1%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.7%
n=18
Nov
94%
+5.2%
n=18
Dec
44%
−0.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$1K$8482026-06-23: 1 insider sale, $847K — DENMAN KENNETH D2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $695K — Frates Caton2026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $732K — Adamo Claudine2026-01-21: 1 insider sale, $838K — Jones Teresa A.2026-01-16: 1 insider sale, $437K — DECKER SUSAN L2026-01-14: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Klauer James C2026-01-09: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Miller Russell D2025-12-30: 1 insider sale, $482K — POLIT JAVIER2025-12-29: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — POLIT JAVIER2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — Wilcox William Richard2025-10-24: 2 insider sales, $3.7M — Adamo Claudine, Barbre Tiffany Marie2025-09-29: 2 insider sales, $4.5M — Miller Russell D, Frates Caton2025-08-20: 1 insider sale, $595K — Jones Teresa A.2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $595K2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $4.5M2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $3.7M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $2.2M2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $2.3M2026-01: 4 open-market sales, $4.1M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $732K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $695K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $847K↑ buys↓ salesdirector DENMAN KENNETH D — Sale on 2026-06-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Frates Caton — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed same dayofficer Adamo Claudine — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Jones Teresa A. — Sale on 2026-01-21, filed 2 days after the tradedirector DECKER SUSAN L — Sale on 2026-01-16, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Klauer James C — Sale on 2026-01-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Miller Russell D — Sale on 2026-01-09, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer POLIT JAVIER — Sale on 2025-12-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer POLIT JAVIER — Sale on 2025-12-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wilcox William Richard — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Adamo Claudine — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed same dayother Barbre Tiffany Marie — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed same dayofficer Miller Russell D — Sale on 2025-09-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Frates Caton — Sale on 2025-09-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Jones Teresa A. — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-23DENMAN KENNETH DdirectorSale885 @ $957.45$847K−15.6% of holding−4.1%not yet — horizon still open4,779Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Frates CatonofficerSale700 @ $993.00$695K−10.7% of holding−8.3%not yet — horizon still open5,815Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-09Adamo ClaudineofficerSale730 @ $1003.02$732K−10.7% of holding+2.5%−22.9%6,121Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-21Jones Teresa A.officerSale850 @ $986.26$838K−16.7% of holding−0.2%−13.9%4,228Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-16DECKER SUSAN LdirectorSale458 @ $955.00$437K−5.1% of holding+4.3%−12.2%8,532Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-14Klauer James CofficerSale1,500 @ $939.00$1.4M−3.2% of holding+8.5%−9.0%44,837Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-09Miller Russell DofficerSale1,500 @ $916.32$1.4M−15.4% of holding+5.4%−9.0%8,240Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-30POLIT JAVIERofficerSale558 @ $862.89$482K−5.2% of holding+8.0%+1.3%10,190Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-29POLIT JAVIERofficerSale2,049 @ $867.21$1.8M−16.0% of holding+8.9%−2.1%10,748Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07Wilcox William RichardofficerSale2,400 @ $930.13$2.2M−54.5% of holding−5.5%+0.4%2,000Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-10-24Adamo ClaudineofficerSale2,700 @ $935.68$2.5M−28.3% of holding−3.5%+1.3%6,851Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-24Barbre Tiffany MarieotherSale1,239 @ $934.62$1.2M−19.4% of holding−3.5%+1.3%5,155Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-29Miller Russell DofficerSale3,381 @ $915.00$3.1M−25.8% of holding−2.7%+10.4%9,740Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-29Frates CatonofficerSale1,540 @ $910.02$1.4M−14.2% of holding−2.7%+10.4%9,284Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20Jones Teresa A.officerSale600 @ $992.05$595K−20.3% of holding−8.7%−9.3%2,362Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-14Rubanenko YoramofficerSale4,000 @ $974.96$3.9M−40.9% of holding−1.7%−15.5%5,774Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-18DECKER SUSAN LdirectorSale546 @ $980.00$535K−4.5% of holding−8.4%−24.3%11,532Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-18DECKER SUSAN LdirectorSale1 @ $978.39$978−0.0% of holding−8.4%−24.3%11,531Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09Callans Patrick JofficerSale3,000 @ $1002.77$3.0M−4.9% of holding−8.2%−26.2%58,543Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-06Riel PierreofficerSale2,000 @ $1014.15$2.0M−19.6% of holding−7.7%−26.7%8,210Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-17Klauer James CofficerSale4,000 @ $981.07$3.9M−8.3% of holding−8.9%−32.5%43,994Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-27MILLERCHIP GARYdirectorSale1,100 @ $940.01$1.0M−9.0% of holding+7.1%−19.5%11,165Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-24Adamo ClaudineofficerSale900 @ $922.56$830K−11.4% of holding+12.1%−14.0%6,987Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-18Frates CatonofficerSale850 @ $900.25$765K−9.7% of holding+13.8%−10.7%7,876Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11Vachris Roland MichaeldirectorSale3,600 @ $931.00$3.4M−8.1% of holding+4.7%−15.0%41,077Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

98 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Wilcox William RichardofficerWithheld for tax1,9354,194Form 4
2026-09-10Rubanenko YoramofficerWithheld for tax1,69610,680Form 4
2026-09-10Frates CatonofficerWithheld for tax1,6548,713Form 4
2026-09-10Riel PierreofficerWithheld for tax1,56214,246Form 4
2026-09-10Jones Teresa A.officerWithheld for tax1,4596,598Form 4
2026-09-10Klauer James CofficerWithheld for tax93648,030Form 4
2026-09-10Adamo ClaudineofficerWithheld for tax9179,334Form 4
2026-09-10Rubanenko YoramofficerAward / grant4,12912,376Form 4
2026-09-10Jones Teresa A.officerAward / grant4,1298,057Form 4
2026-09-10Riel PierreofficerAward / grant4,55215,808Form 4
2026-09-10Frates CatonofficerAward / grant4,55210,367Form 4
2026-09-10Adamo ClaudineofficerAward / grant4,12910,250Form 4
2026-09-10Wilcox William RichardofficerAward / grant4,1296,129Form 4
2026-09-10Klauer James CofficerAward / grant4,12948,966Form 4
2026-07-10RAIKES JEFFREY SdirectorGift5,2496,044Form 4
2026-03-12George Sarah CatherineofficerDiscretionary6420Form 4
2026-03-11MILLERCHIP GARYdirectorWithheld for tax1,15415,465Form 4
2026-01-27RAIKES JEFFREY SdirectorGift5,11511,293Form 4
2026-01-27Jones Teresa A.officerGift3003,928Form 4
2026-01-16Raimondo Gina MariedirectorAward / grant215215Form 4
2025-12-19DENMAN KENNETH DdirectorGift3255,664Form 4
2025-12-15DECKER SUSAN LdirectorGift2,8278,990Form 4
2025-11-10RAIKES JEFFREY SdirectorGift4,12016,408Form 4
2025-10-22Vachris Roland MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax1,49353,418Form 4
2025-10-22Vachris Roland MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax1,16052,258Form 4
2025-10-22Frates CatonofficerWithheld for tax9017,221Form 4
2025-10-22Frates CatonofficerWithheld for tax7588,122Form 4
2025-10-22Frates CatonofficerWithheld for tax7066,515Form 4
2025-10-22Sullivan John ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax58548,037Form 4
2025-10-22Sullivan John ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax57349,191Form 4
2025-10-22Sullivan John ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax56948,622Form 4
2025-10-22POLIT JAVIERofficerWithheld for tax53813,427Form 4
2025-10-22MILLERCHIP GARYdirectorWithheld for tax50016,619Form 4
2025-10-22Sullivan John ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax42149,764Form 4
2025-10-22Sullivan John ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax36647,671Form 4
2025-10-22POLIT JAVIERofficerWithheld for tax33712,797Form 4
2025-10-22MILLERCHIP GARYdirectorWithheld for tax31317,120Form 4
2025-10-22POLIT JAVIERofficerWithheld for tax29413,134Form 4
2025-10-22Frates CatonofficerWithheld for tax2488,880Form 4
2025-10-22Klauer James CofficerWithheld for tax24047,014Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousepurchase2026-07-172026-07-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Markwayne MullinSenatepurchase2026-01-162025-12-29$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-01-122025-12-24$1–15K
Richard Dean Dr MccormickHousepurchase2025-12-092025-11-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-10$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-11-182025-10-17$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatepurchase2025-11-152025-10-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-11-062025-10-07$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.