COSO · TickerCove

COSOCoastalSouth Bancshares, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.23 · now $27.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, COSO has typically landed between $25.12 and $30.48 — a range of −7.8% to +11.9% from the issuance price $27.23.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,200 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-09-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$27.23 · 88% of range

$21.01 low$28.04 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.3%

typical move · IQR 7.0%

−7.8%worst (p90)+11.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where COSO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $27.23 (+0.0%)
typical $27.32 (+0.3%)
middle 50% $26.36–$28.28
90% range $25.12–$30.48

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,200 windows spanning 2017-09-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2018-09-20	−40.5%	−40.5%	+0.0%
2018-09-21	−40.5%	−40.5%	+0.0%
2018-09-24	−40.5%	−40.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2019-02-06	+38.4%	+0.0%	+38.4%
2019-02-05	+38.4%	+0.0%	+38.4%
2019-02-04	+38.4%	+0.0%	+38.4%

2,200 overlapping windows · 2017-09-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

56%

+2.9%

n=9

Feb

56%

+5.8%

n=9

Mar

56%

−1.3%

n=9

Apr

33%

−2.3%

n=9

May

56%

+1.7%

n=9

Jun

33%

−1.6%

n=9

Jul

44%

+1.4%

n=9

Aug

67%

+1.9%

n=9

Sep

56%

−0.5%

n=9

Oct

22%

−5.5%

n=9

Nov

67%

+4.2%

n=9

Dec

56%

+1.6%

n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-31	Bruderer Ernst W.	director	Sale	2,000 @ $27.43	$55K	−4.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	41,131	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-26	Bruderer Ernst W.	director	Sale	2,000 @ $27.50	$55K	−4.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	43,131	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-18	Bruderer Ernst W.	director	Sale	1,000 @ $27.89	$28K	−2.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	45,131	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-12	Bruderer Ernst W.	director	Sale	1,000 @ $27.56	$28K	−2.1% of holding	+0.1%	not yet — horizon still open	46,131	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07	MACLEOD JAMES S	director	Purchase	238 @ $28.15	$7K	+0.1% of holding	−0.0%	not yet — horizon still open	201,585	Form 4 · filed 38 days after the trade
2026-08-06	MACLEOD JAMES S	director	Purchase	96 @ $27.61	$3K	+0.0% of holding	+0.6%	not yet — horizon still open	201,347	Form 4 · filed 39 days after the trade
2026-05-06	Valduga Anthony P.	officer	Sale	4,558 @ $25.84	$118K	−5.0% of holding	+0.3%	not yet — horizon still open	86,115	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-09	Stone Stephen R.	director	Purchase	200 @ $24.15	$5K	+0.2% of holding	+6.0%	+2.3%	120,385	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-10	HIGH MICHAEL B	director	Purchase	1,500 @ $25.14	$38K	ownership Δ n/a	−1.7%	−2.3%	1,500	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-02	Topper Joseph V. Jr.	director	Purchase	100,000 @ $21.50	$2.1M	+1265.8% of holding	−4.9%	−2.4%	107,900	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-07-02	Richardson James N. Jr.	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $21.50	$430K	+18.4% of holding	−4.9%	−2.4%	128,891	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-07-02	Gutin Boris	director	Purchase	11,000 @ $21.50	$237K	+151.0% of holding	−4.9%	−2.4%	18,284	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-07-02	MACLEOD JAMES S	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $21.50	$215K	ownership Δ n/a	−4.9%	−2.4%	10,000	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-07-02	ALDRIDGE JOHN G JR	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $21.50	$108K	+38.1% of holding	−4.9%	−2.4%	18,129	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-07-02	FRAWLEY PATRICK M	director	Purchase	4,650 @ $21.50	$100K	+5.9% of holding	−4.9%	−2.4%	83,549	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-07-02	Hemby Lauren M.	officer	Purchase	4,500 @ $21.50	$97K	+78.3% of holding	−4.9%	−2.4%	10,250	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-07-02	Askins L. Scott	director	Purchase	2,325 @ $21.50	$50K	+19.9% of holding	−4.9%	−2.4%	13,990	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-07-02	Stone Stephen R.	director	Purchase	2,200 @ $21.50	$47K	+1.9% of holding	−4.9%	−2.4%	120,185	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-07-02	Bruderer Ernst W.	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $21.50	$43K	+4.4% of holding	−4.9%	−2.4%	47,131	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-07-02	Valduga Anthony P.	officer	Purchase	1,500 @ $21.50	$32K	+1.9% of holding	−4.9%	−2.4%	81,514	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-07-02	Turner Cameron Bradley	officer	Purchase	1,000 @ $21.50	$22K	+20.0% of holding	−4.9%	−2.4%	6,000	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

43 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-06	Valduga Anthony P.	officer	Gift	2,000	84,115	Form 4
2026-04-27	Stone Stephen R.	director	Withheld for tax	5,022	132,363	Form 4
2026-04-27	Valduga Anthony P.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,841	90,673	Form 4
2026-04-27	Hemby Lauren M.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,181	13,069	Form 4
2026-04-27	Turner Cameron Bradley	officer	Withheld for tax	1,169	8,831	Form 4
2026-04-27	Stone Stephen R.	director	Option exercise	17,000	137,385	Form 4
2026-04-27	Valduga Anthony P.	officer	Option exercise	13,000	94,514	Form 4
2026-04-27	Hemby Lauren M.	officer	Option exercise	4,000	14,250	Form 4
2026-04-27	Turner Cameron Bradley	officer	Option exercise	4,000	10,000	Form 4
2026-04-27	Turner Cameron Bradley	officer	Option exercise	4,000	0	Form 4
2026-04-27	Hemby Lauren M.	officer	Option exercise	4,000	0	Form 4
2026-04-27	Stone Stephen R.	director	Option exercise	17,000	0	Form 4
2026-04-27	Stone Stephen R.	director	Option exercise	17,000	0	Form 4
2026-04-27	Hemby Lauren M.	officer	Option exercise	4,000	0	Form 4
2026-04-27	Valduga Anthony P.	officer	Option exercise	13,000	0	Form 4
2026-04-27	Valduga Anthony P.	officer	Option exercise	13,000	0	Form 4
2026-04-27	Turner Cameron Bradley	officer	Option exercise	4,000	0	Form 4
2026-02-11	Valduga Anthony P.	officer	Award / grant	10,000	10,000	Form 4
2026-02-11	Turner Cameron Bradley	officer	Award / grant	1,500	1,500	Form 4
2026-02-11	ALDRIDGE JOHN G JR	director	Award / grant	927	927	Form 4
2026-02-11	Askins L. Scott	director	Award / grant	927	927	Form 4
2026-02-11	Bruderer Ernst W.	director	Award / grant	868	868	Form 4
2026-02-11	ALDRIDGE JOHN G JR	director	Award / grant	927	927	Form 4
2026-02-11	Askins L. Scott	director	Award / grant	927	927	Form 4
2026-02-11	Bruderer Ernst W.	director	Award / grant	868	868	Form 4
2026-02-11	Stone Stephen R.	director	Award / grant	12,000	12,000	Form 4
2026-02-11	Richardson James N. Jr.	director	Award / grant	868	868	Form 4
2026-02-11	Topper Joseph V. Jr.	director	Award / grant	927	927	Form 4
2026-02-11	Hemby Lauren M.	officer	Award / grant	4,000	4,000	Form 4
2026-02-11	MACLEOD JAMES S	director	Award / grant	1,189	1,189	Form 4
2026-02-11	Valduga Anthony P.	officer	Award / grant	10,000	10,000	Form 4
2026-02-11	HIGH MICHAEL B	director	Award / grant	868	868	Form 4
2026-02-11	GRIFFITH MARK	director	Award / grant	987	987	Form 4
2026-02-11	Turner Cameron Bradley	officer	Award / grant	1,500	1,500	Form 4
2026-02-11	FRAWLEY PATRICK M	director	Award / grant	868	868	Form 4
2026-02-11	FRAWLEY PATRICK M	director	Award / grant	868	868	Form 4
2026-02-11	GRIFFITH MARK	director	Award / grant	987	987	Form 4
2026-02-11	HIGH MICHAEL B	director	Award / grant	868	868	Form 4
2026-02-11	Hemby Lauren M.	officer	Award / grant	4,000	4,000	Form 4
2026-02-11	MACLEOD JAMES S	director	Award / grant	1,189	1,189	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i