Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.88 · now $16.88 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CORZ has typically landed between $12.68 and $24.10 — a range of −24.9% to +42.8% from the issuance price $16.88.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
643 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-01-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CORZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.88 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $17.71 (+4.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.98–$20.43
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.68–$24.1
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 643 windows spanning 2024-01-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-01-23 | −39.7% | −39.7% | +0.0% |
| 2025-01-24 | −38.9% | −38.9% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-05 | −38.8% | −38.8% | +0.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-05-14 | +175.1% | +0.0% | +175.1% |
| 2024-05-15 | +169.7% | −3.4% | +169.7% |
| 2024-05-13 | +162.9% | −1.6% | +162.9% |
643 overlapping windows · 2024-01-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+5.4%
n=2
Feb
33%
+4.4%
n=3
Mar
0%
−17.6%
n=3
Apr
67%
+9.4%
n=3
May
100%
+42.6%
n=3
Jun
67%
+50.5%
n=3
Jul
33%
−11.6%
n=3
Aug
67%
−3.2%
n=3
Sep
100%
+14.5%
n=3
Oct
100%
+16.1%
n=2
Nov
50%
+6.5%
n=2
Dec
0%
−17.6%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $17.14 | $171K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,207,896 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $18.67 | $187K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,217,896 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $16.23 | $162K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,927,896 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $17.45 | $174K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,937,896 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | CRAIN ELIZABETH | director | Purchase | 6,000 @ $18.33 | $110K | +9.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 71,348 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Weiss Eric Stanton | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $19.19 | $134K | +2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 259,262 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $20.10 | $201K | −0.5% of holding | −13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,959,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 9,000 @ $19.90 | $179K | −0.5% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,970,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $20.65 | $21K | −0.1% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,969,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $22.62 | $170K | −0.4% of holding | −30.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,979,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $21.55 | $32K | −0.1% of holding | −30.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,986,601 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $20.39 | $20K | −0.1% of holding | −30.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,988,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 8,300 @ $20.75 | $172K | −0.4% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,990,801 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $21.89 | $35K | −0.1% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,989,201 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 100 @ $22.49 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,989,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $22.30 | $223K | −0.5% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,999,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 9,700 @ $22.43 | $218K | −0.5% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,013,726 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 300 @ $23.01 | $7K | −0.0% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,013,426 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $22.63 | $226K | −0.5% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,023,426 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 8,800 @ $25.99 | $229K | −0.4% of holding | −28.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,040,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $27.42 | $30K | −0.1% of holding | −28.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,038,995 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 100 @ $27.95 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −28.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,038,895 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 7,600 @ $29.11 | $221K | −0.4% of holding | −19.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,051,295 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 2,400 @ $29.88 | $72K | −0.1% of holding | −19.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,048,895 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 9,900 @ $28.19 | $279K | −0.5% of holding | −25.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,058,995 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 100 @ $28.79 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −25.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,058,895 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 5,500 @ $26.64 | $147K | −0.3% of holding | −14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,073,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $27.11 | $122K | −0.2% of holding | −14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,068,895 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 5,500 @ $28.76 | $158K | −0.3% of holding | −15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,078,895 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 3,200 @ $28.27 | $90K | −0.2% of holding | −15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,084,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $26.93 | $35K | −0.1% of holding | −15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,087,595 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $26.25 | $263K | −0.5% of holding | +5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,088,895 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 9,600 @ $23.12 | $222K | −0.5% of holding | +20.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,960,748 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 400 @ $23.76 | $10K | −0.0% of holding | +20.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,960,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 7,400 @ $23.39 | $173K | −0.4% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,970,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 2,600 @ $22.82 | $59K | −0.1% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,977,748 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 9,900 @ $20.85 | $206K | −0.5% of holding | +32.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,980,448 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 100 @ $21.53 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +32.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,980,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $20.94 | $209K | −0.5% of holding | +24.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,990,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $19.80 | $198K | −0.5% of holding | +11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 9,600 @ $18.61 | $179K | −0.5% of holding | +14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,027,489 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 400 @ $18.99 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | +14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,027,089 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $16.49 | $165K | −0.5% of holding | +26.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,037,089 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $15.25 | $153K | −0.5% of holding | +23.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,047,089 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Weiss Eric Stanton | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $14.53 | $102K | +2.9% of holding | +16.6% | +10.0% | 252,262 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Rozov Yadin | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $9.95 | $298K | ownership Δ n/a | +0.8% | +38.5% | 30,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Weiss Eric Stanton | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $21.50 | $108K | +2.3% of holding | −22.8% | −6.1% | 226,687 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 7,759 @ $12.39 | $96K | −0.4% of holding | +6.9% | +11.9% | 2,049,689 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $12.31 | $616K | −2.4% of holding | +13.6% | +16.3% | 2,050,102 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 60,000 @ $11.33 | $680K | −2.8% of holding | +47.3% | +19.1% | 2,100,102 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Rozov Yadin | director | Purchase | 110,000 @ $10.87 | $1.2M | +30.1% of holding | +49.5% | +28.7% | 475,687 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $11.23 | $562K | −2.3% of holding | +41.2% | +25.9% | 2,160,102 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Sullivan Adam Taylor | director | Sale | 22,629 @ $7.52 | $170K | −0.6% of holding | +7.3% | +104.8% | 3,736,164 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Sale | 7,921 @ $7.52 | $60K | −0.4% of holding | +7.3% | +104.8% | 2,015,502 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Levy Jordan | director | Purchase | 62,500 @ $8.01 | $501K | +25.6% of holding | +3.0% | +59.8% | 306,887 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-06 | Weiss Eric Stanton | director | Purchase | 6,000 @ $8.46 | $51K | +2.8% of holding | +3.0% | +59.8% | 221,687 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Becker Todd A | director | Sale | 5,069 @ $9.89 | $50K | −100.0% of holding | −10.4% | +29.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Becker Todd A | director | Sale | 134,250 @ $10.75 | $1.4M | −40.7% of holding | −17.5% | +27.7% | 195,687 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Becker Todd A | director | Sale | 10,763 @ $5.57 | $60K | −100.0% of holding | −17.5% | +27.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Becker Todd A | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $10.86 | $42K | −43.5% of holding | −17.5% | +27.7% | 5,069 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
51 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Gift | 95,000 | 422,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,205 | 1,947,896 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Adams Mark | director | Award / grant | 27,594 | 27,594 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Sullivan Adam Taylor | director | Withheld for tax | 15,584 | 4,436,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,325 | 2,009,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Sullivan Adam Taylor | director | Withheld for tax | 18,023 | 4,452,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,469 | 2,033,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Smith Stephen M | director | Award / grant | 18,961 | 18,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Award / grant | 138,547 | 2,098,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Nygaard James P Jr | officer | Award / grant | 120,074 | 1,043,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,741 | 2,010,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Sullivan Adam Taylor | director | Withheld for tax | 87,355 | 4,470,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Sullivan Adam Taylor | director | Withheld for tax | 315,307 | 4,557,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Withheld for tax | 97,652 | 2,057,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Sullivan Adam Taylor | director | Award / grant | 741,545 | 4,872,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Award / grant | 216,734 | 2,154,741 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Nygaard James P Jr | officer | Withheld for tax | 92,725 | 928,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Weiss Eric Stanton | director | Award / grant | 18,575 | 245,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Rozov Yadin | director | Award / grant | 18,575 | 454,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Booth Jeffrey David | director | Award / grant | 18,575 | 214,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | CRAIN ELIZABETH | director | Award / grant | 18,575 | 65,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Levy Jordan | director | Award / grant | 18,575 | 325,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Sullivan Adam Taylor | director | Withheld for tax | 274,404 | 4,131,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Withheld for tax | 139,873 | 1,938,007 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Sullivan Adam Taylor | director | Withheld for tax | 117,540 | 4,405,704 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Award / grant | 55,758 | 2,077,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Sullivan Adam Taylor | director | Award / grant | 159,308 | 4,523,244 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-30 | Rozov Yadin | director | Gift | 40,100 | 435,587 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Gift | 20,000 | 517,133 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Sullivan Adam Taylor | director | Withheld for tax | 23,508 | 4,363,600 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,228 | 2,021,428 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,805 | 2,029,656 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Sullivan Adam Taylor | director | Withheld for tax | 23,508 | 4,383,553 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,228 | 2,041,461 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | CRAIN ELIZABETH | director | Award / grant | 46,773 | 46,773 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-28 | Sullivan Adam Taylor | director | Award / grant | 665,985 | 4,402,149 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-28 | DUCHENE TODD M | officer | Award / grant | 194,600 | 2,210,102 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-26 | Nygaard James P Jr | officer | Award / grant | 819,672 | 1,017,762 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Weiss Eric Stanton | director | Award / grant | 20,448 | 215,687 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Becker Todd A | director | Award / grant | 20,448 | 329,937 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.