COPConocoPhillipsEnergy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $132.54 · now $132.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, COP has typically landed between $117.45 and $152.82 — a range of −11.4% to +15.3% from the issuance price $132.54.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($132.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where COP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $132.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$117.45worst · -11.4%$152.82best · +15.3%
  • now $132.54 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $134.71 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $126.96–$142.46
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $117.45–$152.82
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−61.1%−61.1%+1.6%
2020-02-21−58.0%−61.2%+0.0%
2020-02-19−56.8%−61.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+55.5%+0.0%+57.4%
2020-10-28+48.6%−0.6%+54.3%
2020-10-26+46.5%−5.6%+46.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$146.5B
market cap
$5.88
EPS (TTM)
20.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$58.7B
'20'25
Net income$8.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$16.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr12.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.36
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 22 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $132.54$82.47$496.16
  • DCF (intrinsic)$467.63
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 20.3× · n=22$119.20
  • Analyst target · range $111.00–$183.00$144.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$132.54

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
−0.6%
n=18
Feb
68%
+0.7%
n=19
Mar
68%
+2.4%
n=19
Apr
53%
+3.8%
n=19
May
42%
−0.2%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.3%
n=19
Jul
47%
+0.7%
n=19
Aug
63%
+0.8%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.5%
n=18
Nov
50%
+2.3%
n=18
Dec
61%
+0.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$141$842026-08-21: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — LUNDQUIST ANDREW D2026-08-20: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — Rose Kelly Brunetti2026-06-10: 1 insider sale, $235K — Mulligan Sharmila2026-03-31: 1 insider sale, $15.0M — Lance Ryan Michael2026-03-24: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Rose Kelly Brunetti2026-03-23: 1 insider sale, $889K — Olds Nicholas G2026-03-20: 1 insider sale, $64.5M — Lance Ryan Michael2026-03-13: 2 insider sales, $4.4M — LUNDQUIST ANDREW D, Hrap Heather G.2026-03-12: 2 insider sales, $3.0M — Olds Nicholas G, HAYNES WELSH KONTESSA S2026-03-11: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Olds Nicholas G2026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Rose Kelly Brunetti2026-03-06: 1 insider sale, $4.8M — LEACH TIMOTHY A2025-12-19: 1 insider sale, $46.3M — Lance Ryan Michael2025-11-10: 1 insider purchase, $500K — McRaven William H.2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $500K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $46.3M2026-03: 11 open-market sales, $96.0M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $235K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $3.3M↑ buys↓ salesofficer LUNDQUIST ANDREW D — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Rose Kelly Brunetti — Sale on 2026-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mulligan Sharmila — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed same daydirector Lance Ryan Michael — Sale on 2026-03-31, filed same dayofficer Rose Kelly Brunetti — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Olds Nicholas G — Sale on 2026-03-23, filed same daydirector Lance Ryan Michael — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer LUNDQUIST ANDREW D — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Hrap Heather G. — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Olds Nicholas G — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer HAYNES WELSH KONTESSA S — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Olds Nicholas G — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rose Kelly Brunetti — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector LEACH TIMOTHY A — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Lance Ryan Michael — Sale on 2025-12-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector McRaven William H. — Purchase on 2025-11-10, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-21LUNDQUIST ANDREW DofficerSale9,487 @ $135.15$1.3M−49.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open9,593Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-20Rose Kelly BrunettiofficerSale15,000 @ $134.51$2.0M−59.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open10,284Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-10Mulligan SharmiladirectorSale1,974 @ $119.00$235K−100.0% of holding−9.4%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-31Lance Ryan MichaeldirectorSale113,221 @ $132.71$15.0M−24.4% of holding−15.2%not yet — horizon still open350,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-24Rose Kelly BrunettiofficerSale7,700 @ $130.03$1.0M−23.3% of holding−12.3%not yet — horizon still open25,284Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-23Olds Nicholas GofficerSale6,994 @ $127.06$889K−56.5% of holding−12.1%not yet — horizon still open5,395Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-20Lance Ryan MichaeldirectorSale506,800 @ $127.26$64.5M−98.7% of holding−13.8%not yet — horizon still open6,835Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-13LUNDQUIST ANDREW DofficerSale34,500 @ $119.68$4.1M−66.4% of holding−7.7%−2.5%17,469Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-13Hrap Heather G.officerSale2,654 @ $119.68$318K−31.9% of holding−7.7%−2.5%5,663Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-12Olds Nicholas GofficerSale14,522 @ $119.36$1.7M−54.0% of holding−0.5%−0.3%12,389Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12HAYNES WELSH KONTESSA SofficerSale10,339 @ $120.07$1.2M−100.0% of holding−0.5%−0.3%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-11Olds Nicholas GofficerSale12,150 @ $116.36$1.4M−31.1% of holding+4.0%+5.3%26,911Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09Rose Kelly BrunettiofficerSale8,500 @ $118.04$1.0M−20.5% of holding+7.1%+2.7%32,984Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-06LEACH TIMOTHY AdirectorSale40,000 @ $118.79$4.8M−8.9% of holding+14.2%+0.4%411,211Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-19Lance Ryan MichaeldirectorSale500,708 @ $92.50$46.3M−60.6% of holding+4.1%+9.8%325,972Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-10McRaven William H.directorPurchase5,768 @ $86.68$500Kownership Δ n/a+9.8%+26.8%5,768Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-16JOHNSON KIRK L.officerPurchase5,300 @ $94.24$499K+57.4% of holding−6.8%−12.5%14,527Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-20Murti Arjun NdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $95.87$240K+13.2% of holding+4.2%−7.0%21,500Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-17WALKER R AdirectorPurchase10,400 @ $97.80$1.0M+37.7% of holding+6.0%−5.3%38,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

197 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15NIBLOCK ROBERT AdirectorAward / grant27096,396Form 4
2026-09-01Kinney Shannon BrowningofficerAward / grant24,08024,080Form 4
2026-09-01Olds Nicholas GofficerAward / grant22,75822,758Form 4
2026-09-01JOHNSON KIRK L.officerAward / grant37,93037,930Form 4
2026-06-15NIBLOCK ROBERT AdirectorAward / grant32295,532Form 4
2026-06-01LUNDQUIST ANDREW DofficerWithheld for tax1,32519,080Form 4
2026-06-01LUNDQUIST ANDREW DofficerOption exercise2,9368,812Form 4
2026-06-01LUNDQUIST ANDREW DofficerOption exercise2,93620,405Form 4
2026-06-01LUNDQUIST ANDREW DofficerOption exercise2,93620,405Form 4
2026-04-15LEACH TIMOTHY AdirectorOption exercise2,2300Form 4
2026-04-15McRaven William H.directorOption exercise2,23023,537Form 4
2026-04-15LEACH TIMOTHY AdirectorOption exercise2,230413,441Form 4
2026-04-15McRaven William H.directorOption exercise2,2308,097Form 4
2026-04-15LEACH TIMOTHY AdirectorOption exercise2,230413,441Form 4
2026-04-15McRaven William H.directorOption exercise2,2308,097Form 4
2026-03-31Olds Nicholas GofficerGift1,9033,492Form 4
2026-03-20Lance Ryan MichaeldirectorOption exercise506,800513,635Form 4
2026-03-20Lance Ryan MichaeldirectorOption exercise506,8000Form 4
2026-03-16NIBLOCK ROBERT AdirectorAward / grant29894,528Form 4
2026-03-13LUNDQUIST ANDREW DofficerOption exercise34,50051,969Form 4
2026-03-13LUNDQUIST ANDREW DofficerOption exercise34,5000Form 4
2026-03-11Olds Nicholas GofficerOption exercise12,15039,061Form 4
2026-03-11Olds Nicholas GofficerOption exercise12,1500Form 4
2026-03-04LEACH TIMOTHY AdirectorWithheld for tax5,871451,211Form 4
2026-03-04LEACH TIMOTHY AdirectorOption exercise8,4740Form 4
2026-03-04LEACH TIMOTHY AdirectorOption exercise7,3900Form 4
2026-03-04LEACH TIMOTHY AdirectorOption exercise8,474457,082Form 4
2026-03-04LEACH TIMOTHY AdirectorOption exercise7,390448,608Form 4
2026-03-04LEACH TIMOTHY AdirectorOption exercise8,474457,082Form 4
2026-03-04LEACH TIMOTHY AdirectorOption exercise7,390448,608Form 4
2026-02-14Lance Ryan MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax18,12737,835Form 4
2026-02-14Rose Kelly BrunettiofficerWithheld for tax3,71941,484Form 4
2026-02-14Olds Nicholas GofficerWithheld for tax3,16926,911Form 4
2026-02-14LEACH TIMOTHY AdirectorWithheld for tax2,683441,218Form 4
2026-02-14JOHNSON KIRK L.officerWithheld for tax1,61517,015Form 4
2026-02-14O'BRIEN ANDREW M.officerWithheld for tax1,57815,760Form 4
2026-02-14Hrap Heather G.officerWithheld for tax1,4818,317Form 4
2026-02-14LUNDQUIST ANDREW DofficerWithheld for tax1,43817,469Form 4
2026-02-14HAYNES WELSH KONTESSA SofficerWithheld for tax48710,339Form 4
2026-02-14Rose Kelly BrunettiofficerOption exercise10,0500Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-05$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-05-042026-04-01$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-02-132026-01-07$15–50K
Markwayne MullinSenatepurchase2026-01-162025-12-29$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-13$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-11-102025-10-27$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-11-062025-10-24$15–50K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.