Issued 2026-09-16 at $54.61 · now $54.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, COO has typically landed between $47.21 and $60.84 — a range of −13.6% to +11.4% from the issuance price $54.61.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($54.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where COO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $54.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $54.61 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $54.47 (-0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $51.4–$57.53
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $47.21–$60.84
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-01 | −55.5% | −56.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-30 | −55.5% | −55.5% | +2.5% |
| 2008-09-29 | −54.4% | −54.4% | +3.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-15 | +69.4% | +0.0% | +69.4% |
| 2008-12-10 | +55.0% | −6.6% | +55.0% |
| 2008-12-16 | +49.4% | +0.0% | +51.5% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$56.63
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$32.38
- Analyst target · range $61.00–$98.00$85.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$54.61
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Kurzius Lawrence Erik | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $53.91 | $539K | +90.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,099 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Rosebrough Walter M Jr | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $54.29 | $163K | +17.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Rosebrough Walter M Jr | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $54.11 | $379K | +70.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Keel Paul A | director | Purchase | 4,701 @ $53.18 | $250K | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,701 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Lucchese Cynthia L | director | Purchase | 1,784 @ $84.06 | $150K | +23.3% of holding | −3.7% | −23.5% | 9,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Rivas Maria | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $82.13 | $82K | +9.9% of holding | −1.5% | −29.1% | 11,141 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Kurzius Lawrence Erik | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $82.50 | $165K | +34.6% of holding | −3.5% | −32.5% | 7,777 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-16 | White Albert G III | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $80.80 | $808K | +4.4% of holding | −0.5% | −29.6% | 236,151 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-16 | Sheffield Holly R | officer | Purchase | 1,230 @ $80.75 | $99K | +3.3% of holding | −0.5% | −29.6% | 39,052 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-29 | Kurzius Lawrence Erik | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $68.39 | $137K | +53.0% of holding | +2.5% | +7.1% | 5,777 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-05 | White Albert G III | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $68.39 | $684K | +4.6% of holding | −1.1% | +6.0% | 226,151 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-05 | Warner Gerard H III | officer | Purchase | 1,450 @ $69.23 | $100K | +8.6% of holding | −1.1% | +6.0% | 18,319 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-02 | McBride Daniel G | officer | Purchase | 3,000 @ $65.04 | $195K | +5.0% of holding | −0.5% | +17.9% | 63,120 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-02 | Andrews Brian G | officer | Purchase | 1,525 @ $65.68 | $100K | +7.4% of holding | −0.5% | +17.9% | 22,191 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
158 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Keel Paul A | director | Award / grant | 2,814 | 2,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Jay Colleen | director | Option exercise | 3,322 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Jay Colleen | director | Award / grant | 4,157 | 4,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Rivas Maria | director | Option exercise | 3,322 | 3,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Rivas Maria | director | Option exercise | 3,322 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Rivas Maria | director | Award / grant | 3,779 | 3,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Rosebrough Walter M Jr | director | Award / grant | 3,779 | 3,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | WEISS ROBERT S | director | Option exercise | 3,654 | 292,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | WEISS ROBERT S | director | Option exercise | 3,654 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | WEISS ROBERT S | director | Award / grant | 3,779 | 3,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Carbone Barbara | director | Option exercise | 3,050 | 3,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Carbone Barbara | director | Option exercise | 3,050 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Carbone Barbara | director | Award / grant | 3,779 | 3,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | MADDEN TERESA S | director | Option exercise | 3,322 | 15,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | MADDEN TERESA S | director | Option exercise | 3,322 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | MADDEN TERESA S | director | Award / grant | 3,779 | 3,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Lucchese Cynthia L | director | Option exercise | 3,322 | 12,767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Lucchese Cynthia L | director | Option exercise | 3,322 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Lucchese Cynthia L | director | Award / grant | 3,779 | 3,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kurzius Lawrence Erik | director | Option exercise | 3,322 | 11,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kurzius Lawrence Erik | director | Option exercise | 3,322 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kurzius Lawrence Erik | director | Award / grant | 3,779 | 3,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Jay Colleen | director | Option exercise | 3,322 | 39,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Rosebrough Walter M Jr | director | Option exercise | 832 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Rosebrough Walter M Jr | director | Option exercise | 832 | 832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Jay Colleen | director | Option exercise | 7,064 | 36,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Jay Colleen | director | Option exercise | 7,064 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | White Albert G III | director | Withheld for tax | 9,419 | 245,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | McBride Daniel G | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,415 | 73,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | McBride Daniel G | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,121 | 71,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | McBride Daniel G | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,119 | 69,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Andrews Brian G | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,893 | 8,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Warner Gerard H III | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,714 | 28,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Sheffield Holly R | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,641 | 43,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Warner Gerard H III | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,501 | 25,206 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Sheffield Holly R | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,462 | 45,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Warner Gerard H III | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,354 | 23,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Warner Gerard H III | officer | Withheld for tax | 787 | 26,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Sheffield Holly R | officer | Withheld for tax | 738 | 44,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Warner Gerard H III | officer | Withheld for tax | 629 | 27,494 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-29 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-01-12 | 2025-12-10 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-06-09 | 2025-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2023-11-08 | 2023-10-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-11-08 | 2023-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2023-11-08 | 2023-10-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-12-06 | 2022-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-10-07 | 2022-09-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-07-07 | 2022-06-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-07-07 | 2022-06-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-06-10 | 2022-05-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-06-10 | 2022-05-10 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.