Issued 2026-09-16 at $36.37 · now $36.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CON has typically landed between $32.65 and $42.55 — a range of −10.2% to +17.0% from the issuance price $36.37.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
517 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-07-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($36.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CON has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $36.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $36.37 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36.58 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $34.2–$38.96
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.65–$42.55
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-09-06 | −19.7% | −19.7% | +0.0% |
| 2024-09-09 | −14.4% | −15.7% | +1.1% |
| 2024-09-11 | −14.1% | −15.6% | +1.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-03 | +28.6% | +0.0% | +28.9% |
| 2026-06-02 | +27.2% | −1.4% | +27.2% |
| 2026-06-04 | +26.9% | +0.0% | +28.0% |
517 overlapping windows · 2024-07-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | ORTENZIO ROBERT A | director | Sale | 130,000 @ $31.84 | $4.1M | −20.5% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 503,455 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | ORTENZIO ROBERT A | director | Sale | 130,000 @ $30.50 | $4.0M | −17.0% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 633,455 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | ORTENZIO ROBERT A | director | Sale | 130,000 @ $25.00 | $3.3M | −14.6% of holding | +23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 763,455 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | ORTENZIO ROBERT A | director | Sale | 130,000 @ $25.00 | $3.3M | −12.7% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 893,455 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
45 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | ORTENZIO ROBERT A | director | Disposition | 770,000 | 4,763,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | ORTENZIO ROBERT A | director | Disposition | 150,000 | 882,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | ORTENZIO ROBERT A | director | Disposition | 30,000 | 196,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | ORTENZIO ROBERT A | director | Disposition | 30,000 | 196,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | ORTENZIO ROBERT A | director | Disposition | 20,000 | 206,286 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Newton William Keith | director | Gift | 89,081 | 89,081 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Newton William Keith | director | Gift | 89,081 | 393,750 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | DiCanio Matthew T. | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,708 | 342,292 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Gallara Giovanni | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,563 | 113,437 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Anderson John Robert Jr. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,540 | 113,460 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Kosuth Michael A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,449 | 113,551 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | deLorimier John A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,428 | 113,572 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Nelson Su Zan | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,903 | 114,097 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Conser Jonathan P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,903 | 114,097 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Gilbert Greg M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,903 | 114,097 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Devasia Thomas A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,903 | 114,097 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Ryan Timothy F. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,903 | 114,097 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | McAndrew Douglas R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,903 | 114,097 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Rhine Michael D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,935 | 76,163 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Kendall Danielle | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,935 | 76,065 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | ORTENZIO ROBERT A | director | Gift | 100,000 | 5,433,794 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Pegus Cheryl | director | Award / grant | 7,748 | 20,740 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Rhine Michael D. | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 80,098 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Ryan Timothy F. | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Bonner Brigid A. | director | Award / grant | 7,748 | 15,496 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Bonner Brigid A. | director | Award / grant | 7,748 | 7,748 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Gilbert Greg M. | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | deLorimier John A. | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Watkins Marc R. | director | Award / grant | 7,748 | 20,740 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Kendall Danielle | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Gopal Vipin | director | Award / grant | 7,748 | 7,748 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Gopal Vipin | director | Award / grant | 7,748 | 15,496 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Conser Jonathan P. | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Anderson John Robert Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Nelson Su Zan | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Devasia Thomas A. | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | ORTENZIO ROBERT A | director | Award / grant | 7,748 | 5,533,794 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | McAndrew Douglas R. | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Newton William Keith | director | Award / grant | 225,000 | 482,831 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Thomas Daniel | director | Award / grant | 7,748 | 74,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.