Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.33 · now $10.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, COMP has typically landed between $7.27 and $14.19 — a range of −29.6% to +37.3% from the issuance price $10.33.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,350 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where COMP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.33 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.38 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.82–$11.95
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.27–$14.19
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,350 windows spanning 2021-04-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-05-27 | −41.3% | −41.3% | +11.1% |
| 2022-05-31 | −38.4% | −39.8% | +14.0% |
| 2022-04-08 | −38.3% | −38.3% | +3.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-01-03 | +114.4% | +0.0% | +114.4% |
| 2022-12-27 | +90.0% | −2.9% | +90.0% |
| 2022-12-30 | +89.3% | −4.7% | +89.3% |
1,350 overlapping windows · 2021-04-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+20.2%
n=5
Feb
40%
−1.0%
n=5
Mar
20%
−8.8%
n=5
Apr
20%
−15.8%
n=5
May
67%
+6.8%
n=6
Jun
33%
+1.0%
n=6
Jul
83%
+11.7%
n=6
Aug
50%
+0.2%
n=6
Sep
17%
−8.3%
n=6
Oct
40%
−3.8%
n=5
Nov
80%
+9.0%
n=5
Dec
40%
+5.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Reffkin Robert L. | director | Sale | 23,456 @ $11.70 | $274K | −0.3% of holding | −12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,757,748 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Reffkin Robert L. | director | Sale | 23,456 @ $12.51 | $293K | −0.3% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,781,204 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Reffkin Robert L. | director | Sale | 22,856 @ $7.68 | $175K | −0.3% of holding | +70.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,805,260 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Reffkin Robert L. | director | Sale | 600 @ $8.28 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | +70.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,804,660 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Wahlers Scott R. | officer | Sale | 99,986 @ $12.03 | $1.2M | −28.6% of holding | +3.5% | −11.1% | 250,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Wahlers Scott R. | officer | Sale | 26,600 @ $11.00 | $293K | −7.8% of holding | +20.0% | −18.9% | 313,625 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Wahlers Scott R. | officer | Sale | 23,500 @ $11.00 | $259K | −6.5% of holding | +13.0% | −23.0% | 340,225 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Wahlers Scott R. | officer | Sale | 49,900 @ $11.00 | $549K | −12.1% of holding | −1.7% | −34.3% | 363,725 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Serwin Bradley K | officer | Sale | 20,953 @ $11.00 | $230K | −7.5% of holding | −1.7% | −34.3% | 258,712 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-24 | Serwin Bradley K | officer | Sale | 20,952 @ $10.50 | $220K | −7.0% of holding | −2.8% | −34.6% | 279,665 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Serwin Bradley K | officer | Sale | 13,969 @ $10.00 | $140K | −4.4% of holding | +1.8% | −30.5% | 300,617 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Serwin Bradley K | officer | Sale | 904 @ $9.50 | $9K | −0.3% of holding | +13.3% | −25.8% | 314,586 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Serwin Bradley K | officer | Sale | 903 @ $9.00 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | +13.2% | −28.0% | 315,490 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Serwin Bradley K | officer | Sale | 13,065 @ $9.50 | $124K | −4.9% of holding | −20.0% | −8.7% | 252,221 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Serwin Bradley K | officer | Sale | 13,064 @ $9.00 | $118K | −4.7% of holding | −17.6% | −5.6% | 265,286 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | SVF Excalibur (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,000,000 @ $9.15 | $91.5M | −17.2% of holding | −18.0% | −33.6% | 48,070,273 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Reffkin Robert L. | director | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $9.93 | $9.9M | −100.0% of holding | −3.5% | −23.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-19 | Reffkin Robert L. | director | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $8.98 | $9.0M | −50.0% of holding | −3.5% | −23.9% | 1,000,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-19 | Wahlers Scott R. | officer | Sale | 150,000 @ $8.77 | $1.3M | −25.9% of holding | −3.5% | −23.9% | 429,187 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Serwin Bradley K | officer | Sale | 123,822 @ $9.07 | $1.1M | −34.5% of holding | −3.5% | −23.9% | 235,245 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Wahlers Scott R. | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $10.02 | $1.0M | −23.3% of holding | −3.5% | −23.9% | 329,187 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Thomas-Graham Pamela | director | Sale | 35,683 @ $9.00 | $321K | −27.5% of holding | −3.5% | −23.9% | 93,990 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Serwin Bradley K | officer | Sale | 13,650 @ $10.00 | $137K | −5.8% of holding | −3.5% | −23.9% | 221,595 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Leinwand Allan | director | Sale | 10,098 @ $10.00 | $101K | −10.2% of holding | −3.5% | −23.9% | 89,042 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Reffkin Robert L. | director | Sale | 775,490 @ $7.91 | $6.1M | −68.1% of holding | +19.2% | +4.2% | 363,646 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Reffkin Robert L. | director | Sale | 224,510 @ $7.90 | $1.8M | −16.5% of holding | +26.2% | +11.6% | 1,139,136 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-23 | Reffkin Robert L. | director | Sale | 491,454 @ $6.90 | $3.4M | −33.0% of holding | +33.7% | −0.6% | 1,000,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Reffkin Robert L. | director | Sale | 465,829 @ $6.91 | $3.2M | −23.8% of holding | +31.4% | −1.8% | 1,491,454 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-17 | Reffkin Robert L. | director | Sale | 42,717 @ $6.90 | $295K | −2.1% of holding | +48.9% | +2.1% | 1,957,283 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-15 | Reffkin Robert L. | director | Sale | 141,061 @ $6.27 | $884K | −6.6% of holding | +16.2% | −6.2% | 2,000,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Reffkin Robert L. | director | Sale | 4,730 @ $5.90 | $28K | −0.2% of holding | +31.4% | +10.2% | 2,141,061 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | Reffkin Robert L. | director | Sale | 804,893 @ $5.91 | $4.8M | −27.3% of holding | +28.7% | +10.2% | 2,145,791 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Reffkin Robert L. | director | Sale | 49,316 @ $5.91 | $291K | −1.6% of holding | +21.9% | +1.7% | 2,950,684 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-17 | SVF Excalibur (Cayman) Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,000,000 @ $6.33 | $63.3M | −14.7% of holding | +0.6% | −7.0% | 58,070,273 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
185 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Sordello Steven J | director | Option exercise | 2,419 | 249,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Sordello Steven J | director | Option exercise | 2,419 | 7,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Glass Ethan Charles | officer | Withheld for tax | 50,970 | 151,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wahlers Scott R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,233 | 318,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Gustavson Timothy B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,176 | 28,457 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wahlers Scott R. | officer | Option exercise | 19,795 | 250,741 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Glass Ethan Charles | officer | Option exercise | 101,733 | 202,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wahlers Scott R. | officer | Option exercise | 47,466 | 342,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Glass Ethan Charles | officer | Option exercise | 38,150 | 495,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Glass Ethan Charles | officer | Option exercise | 63,583 | 63,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Gustavson Timothy B. | officer | Option exercise | 2,299 | 34,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Gustavson Timothy B. | officer | Option exercise | 2,299 | 29,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wahlers Scott R. | officer | Option exercise | 27,671 | 239,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | McCarter Josh N. | director | Gift | 35,288 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | McCarter Josh N. | director | Gift | 35,288 | 217,447 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Williams Dawanna | director | Option exercise | 35,288 | 203,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Martell Frank | director | Option exercise | 35,288 | 218,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Martell Frank | director | Option exercise | 35,288 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Martell Frank | director | Award / grant | 27,702 | 27,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Leinwand Allan | director | Option exercise | 35,288 | 35,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Leinwand Allan | director | Option exercise | 35,288 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Leinwand Allan | director | Award / grant | 27,702 | 27,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | PHILLIPS JR CHARLES E | director | Option exercise | 35,288 | 236,642 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | PHILLIPS JR CHARLES E | director | Option exercise | 35,288 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | PHILLIPS JR CHARLES E | director | Award / grant | 27,702 | 27,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Thomas-Graham Pamela | director | Option exercise | 35,288 | 186,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Thomas-Graham Pamela | director | Option exercise | 35,288 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Thomas-Graham Pamela | director | Award / grant | 27,702 | 27,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | McCarter Josh N. | director | Option exercise | 35,288 | 35,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | McCarter Josh N. | director | Option exercise | 35,288 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | McCarter Josh N. | director | Award / grant | 27,702 | 27,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Williams Dawanna | director | Award / grant | 27,702 | 27,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Sordello Steven J | director | Option exercise | 35,288 | 247,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Sordello Steven J | director | Option exercise | 35,288 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Sordello Steven J | director | Award / grant | 27,702 | 27,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Sordello Steven J | director | Award / grant | 9,677 | 9,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Williams Dawanna | director | Option exercise | 35,288 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Sordello Steven J | director | Option exercise | 2,773 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Sordello Steven J | director | Option exercise | 2,773 | 212,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Wahlers Scott R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,103 | 295,179 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.