COLM · TickerCove

COLMColumbia Sportswear CompanyConsumer Cyclical · Apparel - Manufacturersas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $57.09 · now $57.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, COLM has typically landed between $50.43 and $63.67 — a range of −11.7% to +11.5% from the issuance price $57.09.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($57.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$57.09 · 45% of range

$48.18 low$67.79 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.6%

typical move · IQR 9.0%

−11.7%worst (p90)+11.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where COLM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $57.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $57.09 (+0.0%)
typical $56.73 (-0.6%)
middle 50% $54.17–$59.29
90% range $50.43–$63.67

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−37.9%	−37.9%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−35.0%	−35.0%	+0.8%
2020-02-13	−34.0%	−34.0%	+0.6%
3 best
2015-02-10	+36.2%	−0.3%	+36.2%
2015-02-11	+35.3%	+0.0%	+36.6%
2015-02-09	+34.6%	−0.4%	+35.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+0.4%

n=20

Feb

65%

+5.0%

n=20

Mar

55%

+0.5%

n=20

Apr

55%

+0.3%

n=20

May

50%

−0.6%

n=20

Jun

45%

+0.1%

n=20

Jul

55%

+0.3%

n=20

Aug

35%

−1.5%

n=20

Sep

60%

+0.8%

n=20

Oct

35%

−1.1%

n=20

Nov

75%

+3.7%

n=20

Dec

55%

+0.9%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-28	BABSON STEPHEN E	director	Sale	4,150 @ $67.95	$282K	−3.0% of holding	−7.5%	not yet — horizon still open	132,376	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-27	Nelson Ronald E.	director	Sale	4,080 @ $67.78	$277K	−15.2% of holding	−0.2%	not yet — horizon still open	22,789	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-27	Swanson Jim A	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $68.00	$136K	−10.6% of holding	−0.2%	not yet — horizon still open	16,877	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26	Swanson Jim A	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $65.50	$131K	−10.6% of holding	−1.0%	not yet — horizon still open	16,877	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04	SIMMONS SABRINA	director	Sale	1,329 @ $61.24	$81K	−13.9% of holding	+5.0%	not yet — horizon still open	8,260	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-26	Kulok Lisa	officer	Sale	5,262 @ $54.62	$287K	−47.7% of holding	+0.8%	+11.2%	5,772	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-13	Bragdon Peter J	director	Purchase	300 @ $54.40	$16K	+1.2% of holding	+4.1%	−0.6%	26,223	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-11	Bragdon Peter J	director	Purchase	300 @ $49.87	$15K	+1.2% of holding	+9.4%	+18.3%	24,986	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-09	BABSON STEPHEN E	director	Sale	2,776 @ $65.94	$183K	−2.1% of holding	−9.5%	−40.6%	128,309	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-02	SIMMONS SABRINA	director	Sale	968 @ $60.50	$59K	−12.3% of holding	−1.1%	−36.9%	6,932	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

290 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Bragdon Peter J	director	Withheld for tax	827	28,846	Form 4
2026-09-01	LUTHER RICHELLE T	officer	Withheld for tax	478	18,219	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kulok Lisa	officer	Withheld for tax	458	8,180	Form 4
2026-09-01	LUTHER RICHELLE T	officer	Option exercise	375	1,124	Form 4
2026-09-01	Bragdon Peter J	director	Option exercise	1,309	9,159	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kulok Lisa	officer	Option exercise	368	1,104	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kulok Lisa	officer	Option exercise	368	1,835	Form 4
2026-09-01	Bragdon Peter J	director	Option exercise	618	1,854	Form 4
2026-09-01	Bragdon Peter J	director	Option exercise	617	3,081	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kulok Lisa	officer	Option exercise	580	4,054	Form 4
2026-09-01	LUTHER RICHELLE T	officer	Option exercise	716	5,007	Form 4
2026-09-01	LUTHER RICHELLE T	officer	Option exercise	377	1,885	Form 4
2026-09-01	LUTHER RICHELLE T	officer	Option exercise	377	17,981	Form 4
2026-09-01	LUTHER RICHELLE T	officer	Option exercise	716	18,697	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kulok Lisa	officer	Option exercise	368	7,690	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kulok Lisa	officer	Option exercise	368	8,058	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kulok Lisa	officer	Option exercise	580	8,638	Form 4
2026-09-01	Bragdon Peter J	director	Option exercise	618	27,747	Form 4
2026-09-01	Bragdon Peter J	director	Option exercise	1,309	29,673	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kulok Lisa	officer	Option exercise	368	8,058	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kulok Lisa	officer	Option exercise	368	7,690	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kulok Lisa	officer	Option exercise	368	7,690	Form 4
2026-09-01	LUTHER RICHELLE T	officer	Option exercise	716	18,697	Form 4
2026-09-01	LUTHER RICHELLE T	officer	Option exercise	377	17,981	Form 4
2026-09-01	LUTHER RICHELLE T	officer	Option exercise	375	17,604	Form 4
2026-09-01	Bragdon Peter J	director	Option exercise	1,309	29,673	Form 4
2026-09-01	Bragdon Peter J	director	Option exercise	617	28,364	Form 4
2026-09-01	Bragdon Peter J	director	Option exercise	618	27,747	Form 4
2026-09-01	Bragdon Peter J	director	Option exercise	617	28,364	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kulok Lisa	officer	Option exercise	580	8,638	Form 4
2026-09-01	LUTHER RICHELLE T	officer	Option exercise	375	17,604	Form 4
2026-09-01	LUTHER RICHELLE T	officer	Option exercise	377	17,981	Form 4
2026-09-01	LUTHER RICHELLE T	officer	Option exercise	716	18,697	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kulok Lisa	officer	Option exercise	580	8,638	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kulok Lisa	officer	Option exercise	368	8,058	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kulok Lisa	officer	Option exercise	368	7,690	Form 4
2026-09-01	Bragdon Peter J	director	Option exercise	618	27,747	Form 4
2026-09-01	Bragdon Peter J	director	Option exercise	617	28,364	Form 4
2026-09-01	Bragdon Peter J	director	Option exercise	1,309	29,673	Form 4
2026-09-01	LUTHER RICHELLE T	officer	Option exercise	375	17,604	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i