Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.19 · now $22.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, COLL has typically landed between $18.84 and $26.79 — a range of −15.1% to +20.7% from the issuance price $22.19.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,836 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-05-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where COLL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $22.19 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.16 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.56–$23.77
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.84–$26.79
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,836 windows spanning 2015-05-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2015-12-16 | −44.5% | −44.5% | +7.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −41.9% | −42.0% | +0.0% |
| 2015-12-17 | −40.2% | −44.9% | +6.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2016-08-31 | +131.2% | +0.0% | +131.2% |
| 2016-09-01 | +126.3% | +0.0% | +126.3% |
| 2016-09-02 | +124.1% | −0.4% | +124.1% |
2,836 overlapping windows · 2015-05-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
+4.1%
n=11
Feb
55%
+0.3%
n=11
Mar
55%
−6.9%
n=11
Apr
27%
−2.6%
n=11
May
27%
−4.3%
n=11
Jun
58%
+3.6%
n=12
Jul
50%
−0.7%
n=12
Aug
42%
−5.8%
n=12
Sep
42%
+11.7%
n=12
Oct
36%
−3.8%
n=11
Nov
82%
+21.2%
n=11
Dec
55%
+5.8%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Freund John Gordon | director | Sale | 20 @ $34.05 | $681 | −0.0% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,952 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Freund John Gordon | director | Sale | 4,127 @ $34.54 | $143K | −4.7% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,972 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Lurker Nancy | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $35.97 | $162K | −20.0% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,017 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | BOHLIN GAREN G | director | Sale | 8,700 @ $37.18 | $323K | −12.3% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,259 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Dieter David | officer | Sale | 13,976 @ $34.92 | $488K | −15.4% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Dieter David | officer | Sale | 6,224 @ $36.65 | $228K | −6.4% of holding | −10.2% | −50.8% | 91,047 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Sale | 46,417 @ $40.36 | $1.9M | −38.1% of holding | −13.4% | −52.6% | 75,329 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Sale | 3,559 @ $40.99 | $146K | −4.7% of holding | −13.4% | −52.6% | 71,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Sale | 11,125 @ $47.89 | $533K | −9.2% of holding | +0.7% | −34.1% | 110,088 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Sale | 6,475 @ $48.66 | $315K | −5.9% of holding | +0.7% | −34.1% | 103,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Balice-Gordon Rita J. | director | Sale | 3,650 @ $47.03 | $172K | −6.5% of holding | −2.2% | −36.3% | 52,629 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Fallon John A. | director | Sale | 34,853 @ $47.21 | $1.6M | −35.0% of holding | +2.9% | −37.4% | 64,634 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Tupper Colleen | officer | Sale | 25,142 @ $40.38 | $1.0M | −16.0% of holding | +15.8% | −22.8% | 131,525 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Tupper Colleen | officer | Sale | 4,858 @ $41.28 | $201K | −3.7% of holding | +15.8% | −22.8% | 126,667 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Smith Thomas B | officer | Sale | 17,478 @ $38.42 | $672K | −19.9% of holding | −13.4% | −3.0% | 70,264 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Sale | 16,389 @ $38.21 | $626K | −13.7% of holding | −9.4% | +11.3% | 103,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | SANTINI GINO | director | Sale | 5,405 @ $37.19 | $201K | −5.4% of holding | −8.2% | +15.4% | 95,042 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Rubric Capital Management LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25,000 @ $37.85 | $946K | −0.8% of holding | −3.4% | +13.4% | 3,132,743 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Sale | 4,861 @ $38.03 | $185K | −4.5% of holding | −3.4% | +13.4% | 103,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Freund John Gordon | director | Sale | 11,659 @ $34.36 | $401K | −33.5% of holding | +6.6% | +23.0% | 23,129 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Freund John Gordon | director | Sale | 6,601 @ $30.62 | $202K | −8.5% of holding | +3.7% | +42.7% | 70,658 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Sale | 18,881 @ $30.03 | $567K | −15.4% of holding | −4.0% | −0.3% | 103,613 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Tupper Colleen | officer | Sale | 6,396 @ $30.03 | $192K | −3.9% of holding | −4.0% | −0.3% | 156,667 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Sale | 1,927 @ $30.00 | $58K | −1.5% of holding | −1.2% | +1.0% | 122,494 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | Tupper Colleen | officer | Sale | 1,206 @ $30.00 | $36K | −0.7% of holding | −1.2% | +1.0% | 163,063 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Sale | 2,255 @ $30.00 | $68K | −1.8% of holding | −5.3% | +0.4% | 124,421 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Tupper Colleen | officer | Sale | 977 @ $30.00 | $29K | −0.6% of holding | −5.3% | +0.4% | 164,269 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Tupper Colleen | officer | Sale | 10,445 @ $30.01 | $313K | −5.9% of holding | −11.1% | +7.7% | 165,246 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Sale | 2,348 @ $30.00 | $70K | −1.6% of holding | +6.9% | +17.2% | 142,063 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Tupper Colleen | officer | Sale | 1,504 @ $30.00 | $45K | −0.8% of holding | +6.9% | +17.2% | 175,691 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Kuhlmann Shirley R. | officer | Sale | 26,067 @ $28.50 | $743K | −19.4% of holding | +5.9% | +14.9% | 108,137 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-06 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Sale | 15,387 @ $30.00 | $462K | −10.8% of holding | +5.9% | +14.9% | 126,676 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Sale | 3,295 @ $30.00 | $99K | −2.2% of holding | +5.9% | +14.9% | 144,411 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Tupper Colleen | officer | Sale | 1,949 @ $30.00 | $58K | −1.1% of holding | +5.9% | +14.9% | 177,195 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Kuhlmann Shirley R. | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $28.03 | $561K | −13.0% of holding | +9.6% | +25.8% | 134,204 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Kuhlmann Shirley R. | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $28.08 | $1.1M | −20.6% of holding | +8.8% | +28.9% | 154,204 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-10 | Kuhlmann Shirley R. | officer | Sale | 21,400 @ $32.87 | $703K | −14.6% of holding | −8.3% | −10.6% | 125,284 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-10 | Kuhlmann Shirley R. | officer | Sale | 6,100 @ $33.64 | $205K | −4.9% of holding | −8.3% | −10.6% | 119,184 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
77 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | SANTINI GINO | director | Option exercise | 8,700 | 112,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | SANTINI GINO | director | Option exercise | 8,700 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Freund John Gordon | director | Option exercise | 8,700 | 88,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Freund John Gordon | director | Option exercise | 8,700 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | SANTINI GINO | director | Award / grant | 8,741 | 103,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | BOHLIN GAREN G | director | Award / grant | 8,741 | 71,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Freund John Gordon | director | Award / grant | 8,741 | 79,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Balice-Gordon Rita J. | director | Award / grant | 8,741 | 61,370 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Glancy Donovan Michael | director | Award / grant | 17,482 | 17,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Paya Carlos V | director | Award / grant | 8,741 | 28,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Lurker Nancy | director | Award / grant | 8,741 | 26,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | BOHLIN GAREN G | director | Option exercise | 8,700 | 70,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | BOHLIN GAREN G | director | Option exercise | 8,700 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Dieter David | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,840 | 68,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Tupper Colleen | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,679 | 147,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,615 | 121,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Tupper Colleen | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,861 | 173,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Smith Thomas B | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,538 | 90,651 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Karnani Vikram | director | Withheld for tax | 11,296 | 197,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,977 | 143,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Smith Thomas B | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,897 | 102,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Dieter David | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,781 | 97,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Karnani Vikram | director | Award / grant | 32,531 | 209,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Award / grant | 19,023 | 122,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Award / grant | 30,702 | 153,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Dieter David | officer | Award / grant | 9,005 | 100,052 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Dieter David | officer | Award / grant | 22,194 | 91,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Karnani Vikram | director | Award / grant | 79,264 | 176,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Smith Thomas B | officer | Award / grant | 14,268 | 85,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Smith Thomas B | officer | Award / grant | 22,774 | 108,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Tupper Colleen | officer | Award / grant | 26,421 | 153,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Tupper Colleen | officer | Award / grant | 32,734 | 185,822 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Option exercise | 17,600 | 121,213 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Option exercise | 17,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Karnani Vikram | director | Withheld for tax | 8,983 | 96,989 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Fallon John A. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 79,634 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Fallon John A. | director | Option exercise | 19,853 | 99,487 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Fallon John A. | director | Option exercise | 19,853 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Fallon John A. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Dreyer Scott | officer | Option exercise | 16,389 | 120,002 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.