COLBColumbia Banking System, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $29.72 · now $29.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, COLB has typically landed between $25.71 and $34.28 — a range of −13.5% to +15.3% from the issuance price $29.72.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($29.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where COLB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $29.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$25.71worst · -13.5%$34.28best · +15.3%
  • now $29.72 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $29.88 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $28.06–$31.7
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $25.71–$34.28
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-06-10−57.4%−57.4%+1.5%
2008-06-13−57.3%−57.3%+3.2%
2008-06-11−55.3%−55.6%+5.9%
3 best
2009-03-11+73.2%+0.0%+73.2%
2009-03-30+72.4%+0.0%+75.5%
2009-04-08+71.8%+0.0%+71.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−2.2%
n=20
Feb
40%
−0.4%
n=20
Mar
40%
−3.6%
n=20
Apr
45%
+2.3%
n=20
May
55%
+0.0%
n=20
Jun
50%
−0.7%
n=20
Jul
65%
+1.8%
n=20
Aug
45%
+1.7%
n=20
Sep
60%
+1.8%
n=20
Oct
55%
+3.2%
n=20
Nov
60%
+2.7%
n=20
Dec
60%
+3.0%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$34$232026-06-30: 1 insider purchase, $22K — Deer Aaron James2026-06-08: 2 insider sales, $115K — Moore Devine David …2026-03-13: 2 insider sales, $30K — BARUFFI KUMI YAMAMOTO, Lakely Brock2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $65K — Nixon Torran B2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $63K — Nixon Torran B2026-01-30: 1 insider sale, $404K — GARDNER STEVEN R2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $404K2026-03: 4 open-market sales, $158K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $22K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $115K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Deer Aaron James — Purchase on 2026-06-30, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Moore Devine David — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Moore Devine David — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer BARUFFI KUMI YAMAMOTO — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Lakely Brock — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Nixon Torran B — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Nixon Torran B — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector GARDNER STEVEN R — Sale on 2026-01-30, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30Deer Aaron JamesofficerPurchase886 @ $25.37$22K+2.1% of holding−1.8%not yet — horizon still open42,761Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08Moore Devine DavidofficerSale3,812 @ $29.77$114K−17.0% of holding+5.3%not yet — horizon still open18,636Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08Moore Devine DavidofficerSale60 @ $29.77$2K−0.3% of holding+5.3%not yet — horizon still open22,448Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-13BARUFFI KUMI YAMAMOTOofficerSale937 @ $26.23$25K−1.7% of holding+5.6%+0.8%53,715Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-13Lakely BrockofficerSale211 @ $26.23$6K−1.9% of holding+5.6%+0.8%11,104Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-04Nixon Torran BofficerSale2,240 @ $28.85$65K−2.2% of holding+1.0%−5.7%98,229Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03Nixon Torran BofficerSale2,241 @ $28.25$63K−2.2% of holding+0.8%−9.0%100,469Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-30GARDNER STEVEN RdirectorSale13,725 @ $29.43$404K−100.0% of holding+0.3%−0.4%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-04Nixon Torran BofficerSale4,481 @ $25.99$116K−4.1% of holding+1.0%−4.2%104,869Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

244 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14MACHUCA LUISdirectorAward / grant59449,560Form 4
2026-09-04GARDNER STEVEN RdirectorAward / grant2,5772,577Form 4
2026-09-02LAGOMARSINO SIMONEdirectorAward / grant2,6702,670Form 4
2026-08-14Giem JudiofficerOption exercise2,3932,393Form 4
2026-08-14Giem JudiofficerWithheld for tax6431,750Form 4
2026-08-14Giem JudiofficerOption exercise2,39313,108Form 4
2026-08-14Giem JudiofficerOption exercise2,39313,108Form 4
2026-08-14Giem JudiofficerOption exercise2,39313,108Form 4
2026-08-14Giem JudiofficerOption exercise2,39313,108Form 4
2026-06-15MACHUCA LUISdirectorAward / grant56348,966Form 4
2026-05-14STUDENMUND JAYNIE MdirectorAward / grant3,94921,807Form 4
2026-05-14MITCHELL M CHRISTIANdirectorAward / grant3,94941,909Form 4
2026-05-14Lund Randal LeedirectorAward / grant3,94927,663Form 4
2026-05-14MACHUCA LUISdirectorAward / grant3,94929,953Form 4
2026-05-14SCHULTZ JOHN FdirectorAward / grant3,94950,384Form 4
2026-05-14Varnado AnddriadirectorAward / grant3,94930,894Form 4
2026-05-14SEATON ELIZABETH WHITEHEADdirectorAward / grant3,9493,949Form 4
2026-05-14Terry Hilliard C. IIIdirectorAward / grant3,94955,514Form 4
2026-05-14Forrest EricdirectorAward / grant3,94936,351Form 4
2026-05-14Finkelstein Mark AdirectorAward / grant3,94935,554Form 4
2026-04-15Lakely BrockofficerWithheld for tax39610,708Form 4
2026-03-16MACHUCA LUISdirectorAward / grant65948,403Form 4
2026-03-13Stein ClintdirectorOption exercise18,171158,735Form 4
2026-03-13Stein ClintdirectorWithheld for tax7,151151,584Form 4
2026-03-13Merrywell ChristopherofficerOption exercise5,01346,040Form 4
2026-03-13Nixon Torran BofficerOption exercise5,013103,242Form 4
2026-03-13Namdar FrankofficerOption exercise2,82033,290Form 4
2026-03-13Anderson Drew KofficerOption exercise2,50623,184Form 4
2026-03-13OGNALL ANDREW HofficerOption exercise2,38175,083Form 4
2026-03-13BARUFFI KUMI YAMAMOTOofficerOption exercise2,38154,652Form 4
2026-03-13Nixon Torran BofficerWithheld for tax2,002101,240Form 4
2026-03-13Merrywell ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax1,97344,067Form 4
2026-03-13Deer Aaron JamesofficerOption exercise1,56742,492Form 4
2026-03-13Namdar FrankofficerWithheld for tax1,36731,923Form 4
2026-03-13Anderson Drew KofficerWithheld for tax1,21521,969Form 4
2026-03-13OGNALL ANDREW HofficerWithheld for tax95174,132Form 4
2026-03-13Moore Devine DavidofficerOption exercise94022,884Form 4
2026-03-13Lakely BrockofficerOption exercise84611,315Form 4
2026-03-13Deer Aaron JamesofficerWithheld for tax61741,875Form 4
2026-03-13Moore Devine DavidofficerWithheld for tax37622,508Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.