Issued 2026-09-25 at $295.83 · now $295.83 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, COHR has typically landed between $226.53 and $392.93 — a range of −23.4% to +32.8% from the issuance price $295.83.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($295.83) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where COHR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $295.83 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $295.83 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $308.05 (+4.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $272.17–$343.94
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $226.53–$392.93
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-11-03 | −45.1% | −45.1% | +1.7% |
| 2008-09-26 | −43.7% | −43.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-11 | −43.3% | −43.3% | +0.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-05-17 | +85.9% | +0.0% | +85.9% |
| 2023-05-16 | +85.4% | +0.0% | +85.4% |
| 2023-05-18 | +81.1% | +0.0% | +81.1% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$4.66
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$71.49
- Analyst target · range $230.00–$455.00$371.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$295.83
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Digirolomo Enrico | director | Sale | 5,315 @ $305.99 | $1.6M | −30.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,923 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Beard Robert P | officer | Sale | 500 @ $309.32 | $155K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 51,428 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Neal-Graves Lisa | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $268.42 | $591K | −14.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,033 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Eng Julie Sheridan | officer | Sale | 6,030 @ $270.69 | $1.6M | −12.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 41,027 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-31 | Eng Julie Sheridan | officer | Sale | 7,047 @ $276.83 | $2.0M | −13.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,057 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | SKAGGS STEPHEN A | director | Sale | 2,272 @ $276.88 | $629K | −13.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,592 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Digirolomo Enrico | director | Sale | 2,272 @ $276.85 | $629K | −11.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,238 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Luther Sherri R | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $324.00 | $972K | −4.4% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,475 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Luther Sherri R | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $306.68 | $307K | −1.5% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,475 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Luther Sherri R | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $372.96 | $746K | −2.8% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,475 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 500 @ $368.00 | $184K | −1.0% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,298 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 500 @ $358.00 | $179K | −1.0% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,798 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 500 @ $348.00 | $174K | −1.0% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,298 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 500 @ $344.00 | $172K | −1.0% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,798 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | Luther Sherri R | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $351.00 | $702K | −2.8% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,475 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 1,240 @ $236.22 | $293K | −2.4% of holding | +28.6% | +5.2% | 50,298 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $245.57 | $246K | −1.9% of holding | +28.6% | +5.2% | 52,538 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $244.46 | $244K | −1.9% of holding | +28.6% | +5.2% | 51,538 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $258.00 | $258K | −1.9% of holding | +19.7% | −3.9% | 50,298 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Eng Julie Sheridan | officer | Sale | 1,454 @ $258.18 | $375K | −2.9% of holding | +8.4% | +3.3% | 49,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | SKAGGS STEPHEN A | director | Sale | 3,523 @ $243.13 | $857K | −17.3% of holding | +11.7% | +6.1% | 16,864 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Digirolomo Enrico | director | Sale | 3,911 @ $241.50 | $945K | −18.3% of holding | +9.9% | +4.4% | 17,446 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Eng Julie Sheridan | officer | Sale | 2,792 @ $291.42 | $814K | −5.2% of holding | −15.3% | −19.4% | 50,890 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Luther Sherri R | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $217.74 | $871K | −5.2% of holding | +16.3% | +36.2% | 72,475 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | CORASANTI JOSEPH J | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $196.74 | $3.0M | −15.8% of holding | −7.6% | +86.5% | 79,914 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | STERLING MICHELLE M | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $164.51 | $329K | −18.8% of holding | +8.1% | +112.1% | 8,645 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $172.00 | $172K | −2.0% of holding | +17.3% | +144.1% | 50,019 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $168.00 | $168K | −1.9% of holding | +17.3% | +144.1% | 51,019 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Mocciaro Ilaria | officer | Sale | 1,377 @ $162.71 | $224K | −5.4% of holding | +12.3% | +143.8% | 24,033 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $158.36 | $158K | −2.0% of holding | +12.9% | +148.1% | 50,019 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Digirolomo Enrico | director | Sale | 2,831 @ $134.85 | $382K | −11.8% of holding | +32.8% | +158.0% | 21,078 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | SKAGGS STEPHEN A | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $150.00 | $300K | −9.0% of holding | +35.6% | +165.5% | 20,108 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Dreyer Michael L | director | Sale | 11,570 @ $144.88 | $1.7M | −48.9% of holding | +24.7% | +144.0% | 12,085 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | BAIN CAPITAL INVESTORS LLC | director | Sale | 7,500,000 @ $143.37 | $1.1B | −96.7% of holding | +22.9% | +131.4% | 254,252 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | CORASANTI JOSEPH J | director | Sale | 9,720 @ $151.25 | $1.5M | −9.3% of holding | +22.9% | +131.4% | 94,914 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | BARBAROSSA GIOVANNI | officer | Sale | 60,706 @ $160.00 | $9.7M | −27.1% of holding | +14.7% | +127.4% | 163,158 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | BARBAROSSA GIOVANNI | officer | Sale | 47,751 @ $140.46 | $6.7M | −16.9% of holding | +19.6% | +133.2% | 235,593 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | BARBAROSSA GIOVANNI | officer | Sale | 11,729 @ $141.10 | $1.7M | −5.0% of holding | +19.6% | +133.2% | 223,864 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | SKAGGS STEPHEN A | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $140.00 | $280K | −8.3% of holding | +19.6% | +133.2% | 22,108 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | SKAGGS STEPHEN A | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $130.00 | $260K | −7.7% of holding | +18.6% | +129.3% | 24,108 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Eng Julie Sheridan | officer | Sale | 5,328 @ $90.36 | $481K | −8.8% of holding | +15.5% | +204.3% | 55,490 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Eng Julie Sheridan | officer | Sale | 1,308 @ $91.06 | $119K | −2.4% of holding | +15.5% | +204.3% | 54,182 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Eng Julie Sheridan | officer | Sale | 300 @ $92.66 | $28K | −0.6% of holding | +15.5% | +204.3% | 53,882 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Eng Julie Sheridan | officer | Sale | 200 @ $93.54 | $19K | −0.4% of holding | +15.5% | +204.3% | 53,682 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | SKAGGS STEPHEN A | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $122.23 | $244K | −7.7% of holding | −11.6% | +83.3% | 23,836 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | Koeppen Christopher | officer | Sale | 3,100 @ $100.00 | $310K | −6.9% of holding | −9.3% | +84.6% | 42,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Koeppen Christopher | officer | Sale | 2,600 @ $95.99 | $250K | −5.2% of holding | −9.6% | +77.0% | 47,482 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Koeppen Christopher | officer | Sale | 1,196 @ $97.80 | $117K | −2.6% of holding | −9.6% | +77.0% | 45,124 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Koeppen Christopher | officer | Sale | 1,162 @ $96.91 | $113K | −2.4% of holding | −9.6% | +77.0% | 46,320 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Koeppen Christopher | officer | Sale | 500 @ $94.59 | $47K | −1.0% of holding | −9.6% | +77.0% | 50,082 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $80.88 | $81K | −2.1% of holding | +19.7% | +107.4% | 47,747 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-11 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $83.00 | $83K | −2.1% of holding | +11.8% | +127.2% | 47,747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | SADASIVAM SHAKER | director | Sale | 29,292 @ $80.00 | $2.3M | −43.1% of holding | +7.7% | +89.8% | 38,622 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Neal-Graves Lisa | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $79.65 | $96K | −8.6% of holding | +6.5% | +74.7% | 12,682 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $81.00 | $81K | −2.1% of holding | −1.9% | +65.3% | 47,747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Koeppen Christopher | officer | Sale | 6,154 @ $80.00 | $492K | −10.0% of holding | −0.3% | +83.2% | 55,338 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Koeppen Christopher | officer | Sale | 2,581 @ $80.00 | $206K | −4.7% of holding | −0.3% | +83.2% | 52,757 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Koeppen Christopher | officer | Sale | 2,545 @ $80.00 | $204K | −4.8% of holding | −0.3% | +83.2% | 50,212 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $78.00 | $78K | −2.1% of holding | +1.7% | +96.8% | 47,747 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-12 | Xia Howard H. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $76.84 | $77K | −2.0% of holding | +1.7% | +96.8% | 48,747 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
197 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Digirolomo Enrico | director | Gift | 1,279 | 10,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Eng Julie Sheridan | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,862 | 54,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | ANDERSON JAMES ROBERT | director | Withheld for tax | 11,958 | 185,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Luther Sherri R | director | Withheld for tax | 2,594 | 70,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Mocciaro Ilaria | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,174 | 24,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Beard Robert P | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,896 | 51,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Luther Sherri R | director | Award / grant | 8,731 | 73,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Beard Robert P | officer | Award / grant | 5,373 | 53,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Mocciaro Ilaria | officer | Award / grant | 1,612 | 23,879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Mocciaro Ilaria | officer | Award / grant | 2,449 | 26,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Place Jeffrey B. | officer | Award / grant | 3,358 | 21,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | ANDERSON JAMES ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 30,564 | 197,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Eng Julie Sheridan | officer | Award / grant | 5,373 | 55,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Eng Julie Sheridan | officer | Award / grant | 11,960 | 66,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Mocciaro Ilaria | officer | Award / grant | 2,335 | 2,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Mocciaro Ilaria | officer | Award / grant | 2,335 | 2,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Mocciaro Ilaria | officer | Award / grant | 2,335 | 2,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Mocciaro Ilaria | officer | Award / grant | 2,335 | 2,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Place Jeffrey B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,181 | 17,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | ANDERSON JAMES ROBERT | director | Withheld for tax | 25,836 | 166,438 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Xia Howard H. | director | Option exercise | 2,000 | 52,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Xia Howard H. | director | Option exercise | 2,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Xia Howard H. | director | Option exercise | 3,240 | 53,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Xia Howard H. | director | Option exercise | 3,240 | 2,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Xia Howard H. | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 51,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Xia Howard H. | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 5,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Digirolomo Enrico | director | Gift | 1,847 | 15,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Digirolomo Enrico | director | Option exercise | 2,906 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Digirolomo Enrico | director | Option exercise | 1,005 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Dreyer Michael L | director | Award / grant | 279 | 12,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | CORASANTI JOSEPH J | director | Award / grant | 279 | 80,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Hatter Patricia | director | Award / grant | 279 | 23,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | MOTLEY DAVID L | director | Award / grant | 279 | 26,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | SKAGGS STEPHEN A | director | Award / grant | 279 | 20,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Patrick Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 279 | 5,382 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Xia Howard H. | director | Award / grant | 279 | 50,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | SADASIVAM SHAKER | director | Award / grant | 279 | 41,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | STERLING MICHELLE M | director | Award / grant | 279 | 8,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | VIJ SANDEEP | director | Award / grant | 279 | 15,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Digirolomo Enrico | director | Award / grant | 279 | 21,357 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-08 | 2026-06-25 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-06 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-22 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-25 | $1–15K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | sale | 2026-03-02 | 2026-02-04 | $15–50K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-12-18 | $15–50K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-12-18 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-25 | $15–50K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.