Issued 2026-08-13 at $38.98 · now $37.31 (2026-08-13, −4.3% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, COGT has typically landed between $29.58 and $54.93 — a range of −24.1% to +40.9% from the issuance price $38.98.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,082 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-03-29 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($38.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where COGT has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $38.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $37.31 (-4.3%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $39.37 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $34.76–$43.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.58–$54.93
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −61.0% | −61.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-12 | −60.9% | −60.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-11 | −57.5% | −57.5% | +3.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-07-02 | +538.2% | +0.0% | +646.1% |
| 2020-06-16 | +517.5% | −15.5% | +544.7% |
| 2020-06-17 | +503.0% | −12.6% | +567.3% |
2,082 overlapping windows · 2018-03-29 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study of an FGFR2/3 Inhibitor (CGT4859) in Patients With Cholangiocarcinoma and Other Advanced Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.