Issued 2026-09-25 at $32.31 · now $32.31 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, COGT has typically landed between $24.52 and $45.53 — a range of −24.1% to +40.9% from the issuance price $32.31.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,112 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-03-29 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($32.31) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where COGT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $32.31 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $32.31 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $32.35 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $28.46–$36.24
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $24.52–$45.53
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −61.0% | −61.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-12 | −60.9% | −60.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-11 | −57.5% | −57.5% | +3.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-07-02 | +538.2% | +0.0% | +646.1% |
| 2020-06-16 | +517.5% | −15.5% | +544.7% |
| 2020-06-17 | +503.0% | −12.6% | +567.3% |
2,112 overlapping windows · 2018-03-29 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study of an FGFR2/3 Inhibitor (CGT4859) in Patients With Cholangiocarcinoma and Other Advanced Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Morris Arlene | director | Sale | 42,349 @ $37.09 | $1.6M | −93.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,161 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Morris Arlene | director | Sale | 3,161 @ $37.54 | $119K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Sale | 7,000,000 @ $34.66 | $242.6M | −56.0% of holding | −17.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,503,418 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-22 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Sale | 3,500,000 @ $36.40 | $127.4M | −38.9% of holding | −5.3% | −7.2% | 5,503,418 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-26 | Robinson John Edward | officer | Sale | 90,000 @ $38.74 | $3.5M | −39.1% of holding | −2.1% | −9.2% | 140,002 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Sachs Jessica | officer | Sale | 82,642 @ $38.70 | $3.2M | −38.2% of holding | −2.1% | −9.2% | 133,938 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Green John L. | officer | Sale | 77,000 @ $38.68 | $3.0M | −36.9% of holding | −2.1% | −9.2% | 131,834 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Kearns Evan | officer | Sale | 65,000 @ $38.70 | $2.5M | −37.3% of holding | −2.1% | −9.2% | 109,398 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Purchase | 2,777,777 @ $9.00 | $25.0M | +44.6% of holding | −0.8% | +214.3% | 9,003,418 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-14 | Pinnow Cole | officer | Purchase | 43,750 @ $7.60 | $332K | +2085.3% of holding | +6.3% | +57.0% | 45,848 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
76 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Morris Arlene | director | Option exercise | 41,927 | 41,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Morris Arlene | director | Option exercise | 3,583 | 45,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Morris Arlene | director | Option exercise | 41,927 | 2,773 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Morris Arlene | director | Option exercise | 3,583 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Ferrante Karen Jean | director | Award / grant | 627 | 627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Shegog Todd | director | Award / grant | 17,901 | 17,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | CAIN CHRISTOPHER W. | director | Award / grant | 17,901 | 17,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Ferrante Karen Jean | director | Award / grant | 17,901 | 17,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Harwin Peter Evan | director | Award / grant | 17,901 | 17,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Ros Matthew | director | Award / grant | 17,901 | 17,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Morris Arlene | director | Award / grant | 17,901 | 17,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Robbins Andrew R | director | Gift | 160,000 | 497,503 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Robbins Andrew R | director | Gift | 160,000 | 160,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ferrante Karen Jean | director | Award / grant | 686 | 686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Conversion | 28,000 | 39,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Conversion | 7,000,000 | 12,503,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Conversion | 7,000,000 | 12,503,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Ferrante Karen Jean | director | Award / grant | 643 | 643 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Robbins Andrew R | director | Withheld for tax | 367,497 | 657,503 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Sachs Jessica | officer | Withheld for tax | 154,716 | 216,580 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Green John L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 145,007 | 208,834 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Robinson John Edward | officer | Withheld for tax | 139,998 | 230,002 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Kearns Evan | officer | Withheld for tax | 125,602 | 174,398 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Pinnow Cole | officer | Withheld for tax | 94,800 | 216,650 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Robbins Andrew R | director | Award / grant | 840,000 | 1,025,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Green John L. | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 53,841 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Green John L. | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 353,841 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Kearns Evan | officer | Award / grant | 260,000 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Kearns Evan | officer | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Sachs Jessica | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 51,296 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Sachs Jessica | officer | Award / grant | 320,000 | 371,296 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Green John L. | officer | Award / grant | 65,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Kearns Evan | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Sachs Jessica | officer | Award / grant | 65,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Pinnow Cole | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 97,450 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Pinnow Cole | officer | Award / grant | 214,000 | 311,450 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Pinnow Cole | officer | Award / grant | 65,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Robbins Andrew R | director | Award / grant | 185,000 | 185,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Robbins Andrew R | director | Award / grant | 245,000 | 245,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Robinson John Edward | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.