Issued 2026-09-16 at $203.19 · now $203.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, COF has typically landed between $175.33 and $233.62 — a range of −13.7% to +15.0% from the issuance price $203.19.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($203.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where COF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $203.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $203.19 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $204.72 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $192.14–$217.31
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $175.33–$233.62
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-01-20 | −59.5% | −59.5% | +0.2% |
| 2009-01-15 | −59.2% | −59.2% | +0.0% |
| 2009-01-06 | −58.4% | −58.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-08 | +127.5% | −3.1% | +127.5% |
| 2009-04-07 | +106.9% | +0.0% | +106.9% |
| 2009-04-20 | +86.5% | +0.0% | +134.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$592.85
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$46.69
- Analyst target · range $229.00–$300.00$254.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$203.19
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Dean Lia | officer | Sale | 2,066 @ $206.07 | $426K | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 61,195 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Karam Celia | officer | Sale | 2,017 @ $206.07 | $416K | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 57,696 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Cooper Matthew W | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $214.10 | $749K | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 83,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Dean Lia | officer | Sale | 2,192 @ $225.52 | $494K | −3.3% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,262 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Karam Celia | officer | Sale | 1,887 @ $225.52 | $426K | −3.1% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,709 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Karam Celia | officer | Sale | 1 @ $225.92 | $226 | −0.0% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,708 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Dean Lia | officer | Sale | 1 @ $225.92 | $226 | −0.0% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,261 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Mouadeb Mark Daniel | officer | Sale | 1,199 @ $225.00 | $270K | −2.4% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,132 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Zamsky Michael | officer | Sale | 5,473 @ $218.02 | $1.2M | −16.4% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,992 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Raghu Ravi | officer | Sale | 50 @ $218.49 | $11K | −0.2% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,278 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Cooper Matthew W | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $219.33 | $768K | −3.9% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 86,694 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Mouadeb Mark Daniel | officer | Sale | 1,183 @ $220.00 | $260K | −2.3% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,331 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Mouadeb Mark Daniel | officer | Sale | 690 @ $215.00 | $148K | −1.3% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,514 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Raghu Ravi | officer | Sale | 5,820 @ $210.02 | $1.2M | −17.9% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,772 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Raghu Ravi | officer | Sale | 3,462 @ $209.27 | $724K | −9.6% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,592 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Raghu Ravi | officer | Sale | 444 @ $210.70 | $94K | −1.7% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,328 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Golden Timothy P | officer | Sale | 3,487 @ $211.00 | $736K | −31.9% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,429 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Cooper Matthew W | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $208.00 | $728K | −3.7% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Cooper Matthew W | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $183.36 | $642K | −3.6% of holding | +13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,694 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Haggerty Kaitlin | officer | Sale | 119 @ $182.59 | $22K | −0.2% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,181 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Cooper Matthew W | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $183.93 | $644K | −3.5% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,194 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Haggerty Kaitlin | officer | Sale | 1,307 @ $183.93 | $240K | −2.6% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,300 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Karam Celia | officer | Sale | 1,749 @ $192.58 | $337K | −2.8% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,579 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Dean Lia | officer | Sale | 1,692 @ $185.61 | $314K | −2.5% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,454 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Karam Celia | officer | Sale | 1,099 @ $185.61 | $204K | −1.7% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,323 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Dean Lia | officer | Sale | 3,284 @ $191.00 | $627K | −4.9% of holding | −1.1% | −1.5% | 63,108 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Karam Celia | officer | Sale | 1,636 @ $191.00 | $312K | −2.6% of holding | −1.1% | −1.5% | 60,339 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Mouadeb Mark Daniel | officer | Sale | 1,593 @ $210.00 | $335K | −3.1% of holding | −7.8% | −8.1% | 49,382 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Hanson Jason P. | officer | Sale | 3,729 @ $205.00 | $764K | −8.5% of holding | −4.8% | −5.1% | 40,230 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Mouadeb Mark Daniel | officer | Sale | 791 @ $205.00 | $162K | −1.5% of holding | −4.8% | −5.1% | 50,975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Mouadeb Mark Daniel | officer | Sale | 718 @ $200.00 | $144K | −1.4% of holding | −4.8% | −5.1% | 51,766 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Blinde Neal | officer | Sale | 15,360 @ $191.45 | $2.9M | −31.4% of holding | −1.6% | −1.5% | 33,551 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Blinde Neal | officer | Sale | 7,748 @ $189.42 | $1.5M | −13.2% of holding | −1.6% | −1.5% | 50,811 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Blinde Neal | officer | Sale | 5,983 @ $191.45 | $1.1M | −8.9% of holding | −1.6% | −1.5% | 61,477 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Blinde Neal | officer | Sale | 3,182 @ $189.38 | $603K | −4.5% of holding | −1.6% | −1.5% | 67,860 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Blinde Neal | officer | Sale | 2,918 @ $188.32 | $550K | −4.7% of holding | −1.6% | −1.5% | 58,559 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Blinde Neal | officer | Sale | 1,900 @ $190.64 | $362K | −3.7% of holding | −1.6% | −1.5% | 48,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Blinde Neal | officer | Sale | 644 @ $188.04 | $121K | −0.9% of holding | −1.6% | −1.5% | 71,042 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Blinde Neal | officer | Sale | 400 @ $190.14 | $76K | −0.6% of holding | −1.6% | −1.5% | 67,460 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Dean Lia | officer | Sale | 3,284 @ $223.68 | $735K | −4.5% of holding | −14.4% | −14.2% | 70,162 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Karam Celia | officer | Sale | 2,108 @ $218.25 | $460K | −3.4% of holding | −10.6% | −11.5% | 59,269 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Cooper Matthew W | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $250.00 | $500K | −2.1% of holding | −13.8% | −31.0% | 92,486 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Raghu Ravi | officer | Sale | 13,450 @ $250.00 | $3.4M | −30.7% of holding | −9.8% | −31.7% | 30,337 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Dean Lia | officer | Sale | 3,163 @ $244.35 | $773K | −4.5% of holding | −10.8% | −27.5% | 66,692 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Karam Celia | officer | Sale | 2,064 @ $244.35 | $504K | −3.3% of holding | −10.8% | −27.5% | 61,373 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Cooper Matthew W | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $221.54 | $443K | −2.1% of holding | +10.1% | −29.3% | 94,486 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Dean Lia | officer | Sale | 3,269 @ $218.15 | $713K | −4.5% of holding | +9.4% | −30.2% | 69,855 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Karam Celia | officer | Sale | 2,936 @ $218.15 | $640K | −4.4% of holding | +9.4% | −30.2% | 63,433 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | LaPrade,III Frank G. | officer | Sale | 13,564 @ $222.41 | $3.0M | −21.9% of holding | +9.7% | −23.5% | 48,315 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | LaPrade,III Frank G. | officer | Sale | 4,276 @ $220.84 | $944K | −6.5% of holding | +9.7% | −23.5% | 61,879 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Blinde Neal | officer | Sale | 43,200 @ $221.83 | $9.6M | −37.2% of holding | +4.7% | −25.5% | 73,020 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D | director | Sale | 34,437 @ $221.04 | $7.6M | −0.8% of holding | +3.1% | −21.0% | 4,056,397 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D | director | Sale | 25,383 @ $221.29 | $5.6M | −0.6% of holding | +3.1% | −21.0% | 4,001,228 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D | director | Sale | 16,347 @ $220.65 | $3.6M | −0.4% of holding | +3.1% | −21.0% | 4,026,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D | director | Sale | 6,102 @ $219.07 | $1.3M | −0.1% of holding | +3.1% | −21.0% | 4,096,513 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D | director | Sale | 5,679 @ $220.23 | $1.3M | −0.1% of holding | +3.1% | −21.0% | 4,090,834 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D | director | Sale | 5,169 @ $221.75 | $1.1M | −0.1% of holding | +3.1% | −21.0% | 4,051,228 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D | director | Sale | 4,389 @ $219.31 | $963K | −0.1% of holding | +3.1% | −21.0% | 4,042,958 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D | director | Sale | 3,881 @ $218.47 | $848K | −0.1% of holding | +3.1% | −21.0% | 4,047,347 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $218.07 | $458K | −0.1% of holding | +3.1% | −21.0% | 4,102,615 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
221 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Hanson Jason P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 893 | 41,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hanson Jason P. | officer | Option exercise | 2,014 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hanson Jason P. | officer | Option exercise | 2,014 | 42,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Hanson Jason P. | officer | Option exercise | 2,014 | 42,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Archibong Ime | director | Award / grant | 1,294 | 9,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | SHATTUCK MAYO A III | director | Award / grant | 1,294 | 67,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | SHEPHERD MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 1,294 | 27,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Serra Eileen | director | Award / grant | 1,294 | 12,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Wong Jennifer L. | director | Award / grant | 1,294 | 15,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | RASKIND PETER E | director | Award / grant | 1,294 | 34,396 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | williams craig a. | director | Award / grant | 1,294 | 10,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Detrick Christine Rose | director | Award / grant | 1,294 | 8,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Locoh-Donou Francois | director | Award / grant | 1,294 | 14,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Leenaars Cornelis PAJ | director | Award / grant | 1,294 | 15,192 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Harford Suni P | director | Award / grant | 1,294 | 4,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Killalea Peter Thomas | director | Award / grant | 1,294 | 21,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | LaPrade,III Frank G. | officer | Award / grant | 11,041 | 69,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D | director | Withheld for tax | 30,173 | 4,068,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D | director | Withheld for tax | 25,093 | 4,031,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | LaPrade,III Frank G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,482 | 58,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Alexander Robert M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,491 | 77,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Sanjiv Yajnik | director | Withheld for tax | 4,475 | 149,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Dean Lia | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,056 | 67,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Cooper Matthew W | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,651 | 100,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Blinde Neal | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,624 | 38,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Young Andrew M | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,453 | 59,186 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Karam Celia | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,351 | 64,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Zamsky Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,728 | 33,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Haggerty Kaitlin | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,398 | 50,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Mouadeb Mark Daniel | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,320 | 52,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | West Kara | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,020 | 46,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Raghu Ravi | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,903 | 36,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Cooper Matthew W | officer | Award / grant | 8,094 | 104,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Dean Lia | officer | Award / grant | 8,094 | 71,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Blinde Neal | officer | Award / grant | 8,342 | 41,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Karam Celia | officer | Award / grant | 7,429 | 67,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | FAIRBANK RICHARD D | director | Award / grant | 55,638 | 4,056,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Young Andrew M | officer | Award / grant | 7,656 | 62,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Mouadeb Mark Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 5,142 | 54,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Raghu Ravi | officer | Award / grant | 4,834 | 37,957 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-02 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.