COFCapital One Financial CorporationFinancial Services · Financial - Credit Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $203.19 · now $203.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, COF has typically landed between $175.33 and $233.62 — a range of −13.7% to +15.0% from the issuance price $203.19.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-022026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($203.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where COF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $203.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$175.33worst · -13.7%$233.62best · +15.0%
  • now $203.19 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $204.72 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $192.14$217.31
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $175.33$233.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-01-20−59.5%−59.5%+0.2%
2009-01-15−59.2%−59.2%+0.0%
2009-01-06−58.4%−58.4%+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-08+127.5%−3.1%+127.5%
2009-04-07+106.9%+0.0%+106.9%
2009-04-20+86.5%+0.0%+134.7%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-022026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$124.4B
market cap
$2.85
EPS (TTM)
71.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-20
next earnings
Revenue$69.3B
'20'25
Net income$2.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$26.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr3.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr2.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.45
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $203.19$3.00$636.54
  • DCF (intrinsic)$592.85
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$46.69
  • Analyst target · range $229.00$300.00$254.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$203.19

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
−0.7%
n=18
Feb
58%
−0.9%
n=19
Mar
58%
−1.8%
n=19
Apr
68%
+5.6%
n=19
May
58%
+3.3%
n=19
Jun
53%
−1.4%
n=19
Jul
84%
+5.1%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.5%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.9%
n=19
Oct
72%
+2.2%
n=18
Nov
56%
+3.0%
n=18
Dec
56%
+1.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$256$1752026-09-15: 2 insider sales, $841K — Dean Lia, Karam Celia2026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $749K — Cooper Matthew W2026-08-17: 4 insider sales, $920K — Dean Lia, Karam Celia …2026-08-13: 1 insider sale, $270K — Mouadeb Mark Daniel2026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Zamsky Michael2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $11K — Raghu Ravi2026-08-04: 2 insider sales, $1.0M — Cooper Matthew W, Mouadeb Mark Daniel2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $148K — Mouadeb Mark Daniel2026-07-31: 3 insider sales, $2.0M — Raghu Ravi …2026-07-29: 1 insider sale, $736K — Golden Timothy P2026-07-07: 1 insider sale, $728K — Cooper Matthew W2026-06-02: 1 insider sale, $642K — Cooper Matthew W2026-05-13: 1 insider sale, $22K — Haggerty Kaitlin2026-05-12: 2 insider sales, $884K — Cooper Matthew W, Haggerty Kaitlin2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $337K — Karam Celia2026-04-01: 2 insider sales, $518K — Dean Lia, Karam Celia2026-03-02: 2 insider sales, $940K — Dean Lia, Karam Celia2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $335K — Mouadeb Mark Daniel2026-02-25: 3 insider sales, $1.1M — Hanson Jason P., Mouadeb Mark Daniel …2026-02-24: 8 insider sales, $7.3M — Blinde Neal …2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $735K — Dean Lia2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $460K — Karam Celia2026-01-06: 1 insider sale, $500K — Cooper Matthew W2026-01-05: 1 insider sale, $3.4M — Raghu Ravi2026-01-02: 2 insider sales, $1.3M — Dean Lia, Karam Celia2025-12-02: 1 insider sale, $443K — Cooper Matthew W2025-12-01: 2 insider sales, $1.4M — Dean Lia, Karam Celia2025-11-13: 2 insider sales, $4.0M — LaPrade,III Frank G. …2025-11-06: 1 insider sale, $9.6M — Blinde Neal2025-11-04: 10 insider sales, $23.3M — FAIRBANK RICHARD D, Cooper Matthew W …2025-10-27: 8 insider sales, $23.4M — FAIRBANK RICHARD D …2025-10-02: 1 insider sale, $424K — Cooper Matthew W2025-09-02: 1 insider sale, $447K — Cooper Matthew W2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $45K — Golden Timothy P2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $728K — Golden Timothy P2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $1.9M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $447K2025-10: 9 open-market sales, $23.8M2025-11: 13 open-market sales, $36.8M2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $1.8M2026-01: 4 open-market sales, $5.1M2026-02: 14 open-market sales, $9.9M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $940K2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $518K2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $1.2M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $642K2026-07: 5 open-market sales, $3.5M2026-08: 10 open-market sales, $3.6M2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $1.6M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Dean Lia — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Karam Celia — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Cooper Matthew W — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Dean Lia — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Karam Celia — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Karam Celia — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Dean Lia — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Mouadeb Mark Daniel — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Zamsky Michael — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Raghu Ravi — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Cooper Matthew W — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Mouadeb Mark Daniel — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Mouadeb Mark Daniel — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Raghu Ravi — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Raghu Ravi — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Raghu Ravi — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Golden Timothy P — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Cooper Matthew W — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Cooper Matthew W — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Haggerty Kaitlin — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Cooper Matthew W — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Haggerty Kaitlin — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Karam Celia — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Dean Lia — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Karam Celia — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Dean Lia — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Karam Celia — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Mouadeb Mark Daniel — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Hanson Jason P. — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Mouadeb Mark Daniel — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Mouadeb Mark Daniel — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Blinde Neal — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Blinde Neal — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Blinde Neal — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Blinde Neal — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Blinde Neal — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Blinde Neal — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Blinde Neal — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Blinde Neal — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Dean Lia — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Karam Celia — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cooper Matthew W — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Raghu Ravi — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Dean Lia — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Karam Celia — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Cooper Matthew W — Sale on 2025-12-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Dean Lia — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Karam Celia — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer LaPrade,III Frank G. — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer LaPrade,III Frank G. — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Blinde Neal — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cooper Matthew W — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAIRBANK RICHARD D — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Cooper Matthew W — Sale on 2025-10-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Cooper Matthew W — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Golden Timothy P — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Golden Timothy P — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Dean LiaofficerSale2,066 @ $206.07$426K−3.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open61,195Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Karam CeliaofficerSale2,017 @ $206.07$416K−3.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open57,696Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01Cooper Matthew WofficerSale3,500 @ $214.10$749K−4.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open83,194Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Dean LiaofficerSale2,192 @ $225.52$494K−3.3% of holding−5.8%not yet — horizon still open63,262Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Karam CeliaofficerSale1,887 @ $225.52$426K−3.1% of holding−5.8%not yet — horizon still open59,709Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Karam CeliaofficerSale1 @ $225.92$226−0.0% of holding−5.8%not yet — horizon still open59,708Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Dean LiaofficerSale1 @ $225.92$226−0.0% of holding−5.8%not yet — horizon still open63,261Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-13Mouadeb Mark DanielofficerSale1,199 @ $225.00$270K−2.4% of holding−5.1%not yet — horizon still open49,132Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-10Zamsky MichaelofficerSale5,473 @ $218.02$1.2M−16.4% of holding−2.3%not yet — horizon still open27,992Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07Raghu RaviofficerSale50 @ $218.49$11K−0.2% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open26,278Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-04Cooper Matthew WofficerSale3,500 @ $219.33$768K−3.9% of holding−1.6%not yet — horizon still open86,694Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04Mouadeb Mark DanielofficerSale1,183 @ $220.00$260K−2.3% of holding−1.6%not yet — horizon still open50,331Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03Mouadeb Mark DanielofficerSale690 @ $215.00$148K−1.3% of holding−3.5%not yet — horizon still open51,514Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-31Raghu RaviofficerSale5,820 @ $210.02$1.2M−17.9% of holding−0.0%not yet — horizon still open26,772Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-31Raghu RaviofficerSale3,462 @ $209.27$724K−9.6% of holding−0.0%not yet — horizon still open32,592Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-31Raghu RaviofficerSale444 @ $210.70$94K−1.7% of holding−0.0%not yet — horizon still open26,328Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-29Golden Timothy PofficerSale3,487 @ $211.00$736K−31.9% of holding−1.9%not yet — horizon still open7,429Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-07Cooper Matthew WofficerSale3,500 @ $208.00$728K−3.7% of holding+6.3%not yet — horizon still open90,194Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02Cooper Matthew WofficerSale3,500 @ $183.36$642K−3.6% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open93,694Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-13Haggerty KaitlinofficerSale119 @ $182.59$22K−0.2% of holding+2.3%not yet — horizon still open49,181Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12Cooper Matthew WofficerSale3,500 @ $183.93$644K−3.5% of holding−0.4%not yet — horizon still open97,194Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-12Haggerty KaitlinofficerSale1,307 @ $183.93$240K−2.6% of holding−0.4%not yet — horizon still open49,300Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-01Karam CeliaofficerSale1,749 @ $192.58$337K−2.8% of holding−9.2%not yet — horizon still open61,579Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-01Dean LiaofficerSale1,692 @ $185.61$314K−2.5% of holding−6.0%not yet — horizon still open65,454Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Karam CeliaofficerSale1,099 @ $185.61$204K−1.7% of holding−6.0%not yet — horizon still open63,323Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Dean LiaofficerSale3,284 @ $191.00$627K−4.9% of holding−1.1%−1.5%63,108Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Karam CeliaofficerSale1,636 @ $191.00$312K−2.6% of holding−1.1%−1.5%60,339Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26Mouadeb Mark DanielofficerSale1,593 @ $210.00$335K−3.1% of holding−7.8%−8.1%49,382Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-25Hanson Jason P.officerSale3,729 @ $205.00$764K−8.5% of holding−4.8%−5.1%40,230Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-25Mouadeb Mark DanielofficerSale791 @ $205.00$162K−1.5% of holding−4.8%−5.1%50,975Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-25Mouadeb Mark DanielofficerSale718 @ $200.00$144K−1.4% of holding−4.8%−5.1%51,766Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Blinde NealofficerSale15,360 @ $191.45$2.9M−31.4% of holding−1.6%−1.5%33,551Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24Blinde NealofficerSale7,748 @ $189.42$1.5M−13.2% of holding−1.6%−1.5%50,811Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24Blinde NealofficerSale5,983 @ $191.45$1.1M−8.9% of holding−1.6%−1.5%61,477Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24Blinde NealofficerSale3,182 @ $189.38$603K−4.5% of holding−1.6%−1.5%67,860Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24Blinde NealofficerSale2,918 @ $188.32$550K−4.7% of holding−1.6%−1.5%58,559Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24Blinde NealofficerSale1,900 @ $190.64$362K−3.7% of holding−1.6%−1.5%48,911Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24Blinde NealofficerSale644 @ $188.04$121K−0.9% of holding−1.6%−1.5%71,042Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24Blinde NealofficerSale400 @ $190.14$76K−0.6% of holding−1.6%−1.5%67,460Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04Dean LiaofficerSale3,284 @ $223.68$735K−4.5% of holding−14.4%−14.2%70,162Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02Karam CeliaofficerSale2,108 @ $218.25$460K−3.4% of holding−10.6%−11.5%59,269Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-06Cooper Matthew WofficerSale2,000 @ $250.00$500K−2.1% of holding−13.8%−31.0%92,486Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-05Raghu RaviofficerSale13,450 @ $250.00$3.4M−30.7% of holding−9.8%−31.7%30,337Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-02Dean LiaofficerSale3,163 @ $244.35$773K−4.5% of holding−10.8%−27.5%66,692Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02Karam CeliaofficerSale2,064 @ $244.35$504K−3.3% of holding−10.8%−27.5%61,373Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-02Cooper Matthew WofficerSale2,000 @ $221.54$443K−2.1% of holding+10.1%−29.3%94,486Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-01Dean LiaofficerSale3,269 @ $218.15$713K−4.5% of holding+9.4%−30.2%69,855Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01Karam CeliaofficerSale2,936 @ $218.15$640K−4.4% of holding+9.4%−30.2%63,433Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-13LaPrade,III Frank G.officerSale13,564 @ $222.41$3.0M−21.9% of holding+9.7%−23.5%48,315Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-13LaPrade,III Frank G.officerSale4,276 @ $220.84$944K−6.5% of holding+9.7%−23.5%61,879Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-06Blinde NealofficerSale43,200 @ $221.83$9.6M−37.2% of holding+4.7%−25.5%73,020Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-04FAIRBANK RICHARD DdirectorSale34,437 @ $221.04$7.6M−0.8% of holding+3.1%−21.0%4,056,397Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04FAIRBANK RICHARD DdirectorSale25,383 @ $221.29$5.6M−0.6% of holding+3.1%−21.0%4,001,228Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04FAIRBANK RICHARD DdirectorSale16,347 @ $220.65$3.6M−0.4% of holding+3.1%−21.0%4,026,611Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04FAIRBANK RICHARD DdirectorSale6,102 @ $219.07$1.3M−0.1% of holding+3.1%−21.0%4,096,513Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04FAIRBANK RICHARD DdirectorSale5,679 @ $220.23$1.3M−0.1% of holding+3.1%−21.0%4,090,834Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04FAIRBANK RICHARD DdirectorSale5,169 @ $221.75$1.1M−0.1% of holding+3.1%−21.0%4,051,228Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04FAIRBANK RICHARD DdirectorSale4,389 @ $219.31$963K−0.1% of holding+3.1%−21.0%4,042,958Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04FAIRBANK RICHARD DdirectorSale3,881 @ $218.47$848K−0.1% of holding+3.1%−21.0%4,047,347Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04FAIRBANK RICHARD DdirectorSale2,100 @ $218.07$458K−0.1% of holding+3.1%−21.0%4,102,615Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

221 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-01Hanson Jason P.officerWithheld for tax89341,351Form 4
2026-08-01Hanson Jason P.officerOption exercise2,0140Form 4
2026-08-01Hanson Jason P.officerOption exercise2,01442,244Form 4
2026-08-01Hanson Jason P.officerOption exercise2,01442,244Form 4
2026-05-08Archibong ImedirectorAward / grant1,2949,977Form 4
2026-05-08SHATTUCK MAYO A IIIdirectorAward / grant1,29467,911Form 4
2026-05-08SHEPHERD MICHAELdirectorAward / grant1,29427,987Form 4
2026-05-08Serra EileendirectorAward / grant1,29412,844Form 4
2026-05-08Wong Jennifer L.directorAward / grant1,29415,226Form 4
2026-05-08RASKIND PETER EdirectorAward / grant1,29434,396Form 4
2026-05-08williams craig a.directorAward / grant1,29410,218Form 4
2026-05-08Detrick Christine RosedirectorAward / grant1,2948,923Form 4
2026-05-08Locoh-Donou FrancoisdirectorAward / grant1,29414,802Form 4
2026-05-08Leenaars Cornelis PAJdirectorAward / grant1,29415,192Form 4
2026-05-08Harford Suni PdirectorAward / grant1,2944,314Form 4
2026-05-08Killalea Peter ThomasdirectorAward / grant1,29421,378Form 4
2026-04-07LaPrade,III Frank G.officerAward / grant11,04169,283Form 4
2026-03-09FAIRBANK RICHARD DdirectorWithheld for tax30,1734,068,510Form 4
2026-03-09FAIRBANK RICHARD DdirectorWithheld for tax25,0934,031,782Form 4
2026-03-09LaPrade,III Frank G.officerWithheld for tax5,48258,242Form 4
2026-03-09Alexander Robert M.officerWithheld for tax4,49177,292Form 4
2026-03-09Sanjiv YajnikdirectorWithheld for tax4,475149,383Form 4
2026-03-09Dean LiaofficerWithheld for tax4,05667,146Form 4
2026-03-09Cooper Matthew WofficerWithheld for tax3,651100,694Form 4
2026-03-09Blinde NealofficerWithheld for tax3,62438,269Form 4
2026-03-09Young Andrew MofficerWithheld for tax3,45359,186Form 4
2026-03-09Karam CeliaofficerWithheld for tax3,35164,417Form 4
2026-03-09Zamsky MichaelofficerWithheld for tax2,72833,465Form 4
2026-03-09Haggerty KaitlinofficerWithheld for tax2,39850,561Form 4
2026-03-09Mouadeb Mark DanielofficerWithheld for tax2,32052,204Form 4
2026-03-09West KaraofficerWithheld for tax2,02046,665Form 4
2026-03-09Raghu RaviofficerWithheld for tax1,90336,054Form 4
2026-03-09Cooper Matthew WofficerAward / grant8,094104,345Form 4
2026-03-09Dean LiaofficerAward / grant8,09471,202Form 4
2026-03-09Blinde NealofficerAward / grant8,34241,893Form 4
2026-03-09Karam CeliaofficerAward / grant7,42967,768Form 4
2026-03-09FAIRBANK RICHARD DdirectorAward / grant55,6384,056,875Form 4
2026-03-09Young Andrew MofficerAward / grant7,65662,639Form 4
2026-03-09Mouadeb Mark DanielofficerAward / grant5,14254,524Form 4
2026-03-09Raghu RaviofficerAward / grant4,83437,957Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-02$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-05$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.