Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.21 · now $10.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, COE has typically landed between $7.44 and $14.58 — a range of −27.1% to +42.8% from the issuance price $10.21.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,545 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-06-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where COE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.21 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.19 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.91–$11.47
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.44–$14.58
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,545 windows spanning 2016-06-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-07-16 | −69.2% | −69.2% | +0.0% |
| 2021-07-20 | −69.1% | −69.1% | +2.4% |
| 2021-06-24 | −68.4% | −68.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-01-27 | +146.9% | −7.7% | +146.9% |
| 2019-12-13 | +145.5% | +0.0% | +145.5% |
| 2019-12-16 | +128.4% | +0.0% | +140.5% |
2,545 overlapping windows · 2016-06-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
20%
−4.6%
n=10
Feb
40%
+11.0%
n=10
Mar
60%
+7.3%
n=10
Apr
30%
−2.0%
n=10
May
70%
−5.4%
n=10
Jun
50%
+16.1%
n=10
Jul
45%
−6.3%
n=11
Aug
36%
−5.3%
n=11
Sep
64%
+9.5%
n=11
Oct
20%
−4.0%
n=10
Nov
30%
−9.2%
n=10
Dec
60%
+6.2%
n=10
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 35,400 @ $20.83 | $737K | +0.1% of holding | −40.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,615,160 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 337,500 @ $20.17 | $6.8M | +1.0% of holding | −46.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,428,140 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 254,820 @ $19.61 | $5.0M | +0.7% of holding | −45.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,090,640 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 199,980 @ $19.72 | $3.9M | +0.6% of holding | −36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,835,820 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 90,480 @ $19.39 | $1.8M | +0.3% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,635,840 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 105,120 @ $19.29 | $2.0M | +0.3% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,545,360 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 158,460 @ $19.20 | $3.0M | +0.5% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,440,240 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 125,880 @ $19.06 | $2.4M | +0.4% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,281,780 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 333,840 @ $18.48 | $6.2M | +1.0% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,155,900 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 122,580 @ $17.54 | $2.2M | +0.4% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,822,060 | Form 4 · filed 10 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 194,460 @ $17.21 | $3.3M | +0.6% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,699,480 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 109,080 @ $16.91 | $1.8M | +0.3% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,505,020 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 169,980 @ $16.88 | $2.9M | +0.5% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,395,940 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 451,320 @ $16.97 | $7.7M | +1.4% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,225,960 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 185,880 @ $16.26 | $3.0M | +0.6% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,774,640 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 301,440 @ $15.84 | $4.8M | +0.9% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,588,760 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $15.60 | $936K | +0.2% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,287,320 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $15.54 | $932K | +0.2% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,227,320 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 123,780 @ $15.98 | $2.0M | +0.4% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,167,320 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 59,940 @ $15.95 | $956K | +0.2% of holding | −18.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,043,540 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 498,660 @ $16.62 | $8.3M | +1.6% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,983,600 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 112,500 @ $16.68 | $1.9M | +0.4% of holding | −14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,484,940 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 83,460 @ $16.56 | $1.4M | +0.3% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,372,440 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 111,840 @ $16.60 | $1.9M | +0.4% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,288,980 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 135,540 @ $16.93 | $2.3M | +0.4% of holding | −10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,177,140 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 178,800 @ $17.23 | $3.1M | +0.6% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,041,600 | Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 213,480 @ $17.24 | $3.7M | +0.7% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,862,800 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 95,040 @ $16.71 | $1.6M | +0.3% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,649,320 | Form 4 · filed 10 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 186,840 @ $17.19 | $3.2M | +0.6% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,554,280 | Form 4 · filed 11 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 185,880 @ $16.45 | $3.1M | +0.6% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,367,440 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 211,260 @ $16.72 | $3.5M | +0.7% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,181,560 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 165,420 @ $16.46 | $2.7M | +0.6% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,970,300 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 556,020 @ $16.78 | $9.3M | +1.9% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,804,880 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 286,800 @ $16.57 | $4.8M | +1.0% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,248,860 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 293,520 @ $15.98 | $4.7M | +1.0% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,902,000 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $15.52 | $931K | +0.2% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,962,000 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 60 @ $15.95 | $957 | +0.0% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,962,060 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 152,820 @ $15.23 | $2.3M | +0.5% of holding | +25.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,512,780 | Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $15.20 | $912K | +0.2% of holding | +25.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,572,780 | Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 35,700 @ $15.21 | $543K | +0.1% of holding | +25.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,608,480 | Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 151,800 @ $15.61 | $2.4M | +0.5% of holding | +29.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,359,960 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 60 @ $14.85 | $891 | +0.0% of holding | +29.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,208,160 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 150,600 @ $15.76 | $2.4M | +0.5% of holding | +29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,208,100 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 210,000 @ $15.46 | $3.2M | +0.8% of holding | +28.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,759,000 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $15.40 | $924K | +0.2% of holding | +28.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,997,500 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $15.36 | $922K | +0.2% of holding | +28.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,057,500 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $15.19 | $911K | +0.2% of holding | +28.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,937,500 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $14.85 | $891K | +0.2% of holding | +28.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,819,000 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 58,500 @ $14.81 | $866K | +0.2% of holding | +28.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,877,500 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 3,720 @ $15.04 | $56K | +0.0% of holding | +28.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,549,000 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 72,780 @ $16.01 | $1.2M | +0.3% of holding | +24.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,395,280 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $16.00 | $960K | +0.2% of holding | +24.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,455,280 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $16.00 | $960K | +0.2% of holding | +24.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,515,280 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $16.00 | $480K | +0.1% of holding | +24.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,545,280 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 13,620 @ $15.50 | $211K | +0.0% of holding | +24.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,322,500 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 12,000 @ $15.63 | $188K | +0.0% of holding | +24.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,308,880 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 58,140 @ $16.02 | $931K | +0.2% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,280,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 12,000 @ $15.86 | $190K | +0.0% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,292,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 4,380 @ $15.50 | $68K | +0.0% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,296,880 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Purchase | 85,860 @ $17.50 | $1.5M | +0.3% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,210,360 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
29 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Option exercise | 137,500 | 825,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Option exercise | 137,500 | 42,388,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Shu Ting | director | Withheld for tax | 12,000 | 493,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Withheld for tax | 12,000 | 493,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Shu Ting | director | Award / grant | 72,720 | 72,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Option exercise | 72,720 | 505,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Award / grant | 72,720 | 72,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Shu Ting | director | Option exercise | 72,720 | 505,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Lin Frank Hurst | director | Award / grant | 72,720 | 72,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Lin Frank Hurst | director | Option exercise | 72,720 | 1,192,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Wu Xiaoguang | director | Option exercise | 45,911 | 1,404,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Wu Xiaoguang | director | Option exercise | 45,911 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Option exercise | 275,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Shu Ting | director | Option exercise | 275,000 | 42,251,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Shu Ting | director | Option exercise | 275,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Option exercise | 275,000 | 42,251,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Tang Cindy Chun | officer | Award / grant | 89,000 | 89,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Lai Jimmy Y. | director | Option exercise | 50,336 | 2,982,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Lai Jimmy Y. | director | Option exercise | 50,336 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Option exercise | 137,500 | 41,976,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Option exercise | 137,500 | 962,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Shu Ting | director | Option exercise | 137,500 | 962,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Shu Ting | director | Option exercise | 137,500 | 41,976,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wu Xiaoguang | director | Option exercise | 45,907 | 45,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wu Xiaoguang | director | Option exercise | 45,907 | 1,358,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Shu Ting | director | Option exercise | 275,000 | 41,838,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Shu Ting | director | Option exercise | 275,000 | 275,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Option exercise | 275,000 | 41,838,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Huang Jack Jiajia | director | Option exercise | 275,000 | 275,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.