Issued 2026-09-16 at $56.37 · now $56.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, COCO has typically landed between $44.76 and $71.41 — a range of −20.6% to +26.7% from the issuance price $56.37.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,209 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($56.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where COCO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $56.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $56.37 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $58.01 (+2.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $52.33–$63.68
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $44.76–$71.41
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,209 windows spanning 2021-10-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-11-17 | −45.3% | −45.3% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-15 | −43.8% | −46.8% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-16 | −39.1% | −39.1% | +9.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-22 | +69.2% | +0.0% | +70.1% |
| 2026-04-21 | +64.4% | −1.7% | +67.2% |
| 2026-04-17 | +64.0% | −3.6% | +64.0% |
1,209 overlapping windows · 2021-10-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−5.1%
n=5
Feb
80%
+11.8%
n=5
Mar
20%
−7.2%
n=5
Apr
80%
+15.3%
n=5
May
100%
+15.6%
n=5
Jun
40%
−6.9%
n=5
Jul
20%
+2.3%
n=5
Aug
80%
+4.6%
n=5
Sep
40%
−1.8%
n=5
Oct
50%
−1.1%
n=4
Nov
80%
+13.7%
n=5
Dec
40%
−1.2%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Sadowsky Kenneth | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $82.92 | $323K | −0.7% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 580,296 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Liran Ira | director | Sale | 74,232 @ $80.29 | $6.0M | −19.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 309,871 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Liran Ira | director | Sale | 73,842 @ $80.32 | $5.9M | −15.5% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 402,579 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Liran Ira | director | Sale | 96,158 @ $79.14 | $7.6M | −16.8% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 476,421 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Liran Ira | director | Sale | 95,768 @ $79.14 | $7.6M | −20.0% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 384,103 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $80.00 | $2.4M | −34.1% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,910 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | van Es Charles | officer | Sale | 8,045 @ $75.05 | $604K | −12.0% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,085 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Sadowsky Kenneth | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $77.47 | $302K | −0.7% of holding | +5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 582,666 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $75.00 | $2.3M | −34.1% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,910 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $70.00 | $1.4M | −25.7% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,910 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | van Es Charles | officer | Sale | 8,561 @ $70.00 | $599K | −11.3% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,130 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | van Es Charles | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $66.87 | $134K | −2.6% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,691 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Kirban Michael | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $68.00 | $3.4M | −8.8% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 515,681 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $67.50 | $1.4M | −25.7% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,910 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $65.00 | $1.3M | −20.4% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,910 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $62.50 | $1.3M | −25.7% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,910 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Roper Martin | director | Sale | 20,544 @ $59.35 | $1.2M | −6.4% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Roper Martin | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $51.13 | $1.3M | −7.7% of holding | +43.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,484 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Roper Martin | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $50.00 | $1.3M | −7.7% of holding | +47.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | Roper Martin | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $50.00 | $1.3M | −7.7% of holding | +46.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,484 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Roper Martin | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $50.00 | $1.3M | −7.7% of holding | +56.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Roper Martin | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $50.11 | $1.3M | −7.7% of holding | +46.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Sadowsky Kenneth | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $48.93 | $191K | −0.7% of holding | +46.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 586,566 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Roper Martin | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $50.00 | $1.3M | −7.7% of holding | +43.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,484 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Roper Martin | director | Sale | 4,456 @ $50.55 | $225K | −1.5% of holding | +46.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Roper Martin | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $50.11 | $1.3M | −7.7% of holding | +33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,484 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Roper Martin | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $50.95 | $1.3M | −7.7% of holding | +30.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Roper Martin | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $50.00 | $1.3M | −7.7% of holding | +28.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,484 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | van Es Charles | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $48.67 | $97K | −2.5% of holding | +27.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,691 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | BAKER COREY | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $55.45 | $111K | −7.2% of holding | −19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,951 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Sadowsky Kenneth | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $56.92 | $222K | −0.7% of holding | −21.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 590,466 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | BAKER COREY | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $58.04 | $116K | −6.7% of holding | −21.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,951 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | BAKER COREY | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $59.92 | $120K | −6.3% of holding | −21.7% | −16.1% | 29,951 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $60.00 | $1.2M | −25.7% of holding | −22.7% | −21.8% | 57,910 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $57.98 | $1.2M | −25.7% of holding | −22.7% | −21.8% | 57,910 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Sale | 11,175 @ $57.98 | $648K | −16.2% of holding | −22.7% | −21.8% | 57,910 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Sadowsky Kenneth | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $60.14 | $601K | −1.7% of holding | −22.7% | −21.8% | 594,366 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Sale | 8,825 @ $57.98 | $512K | −13.2% of holding | −22.7% | −21.8% | 57,910 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | BAKER COREY | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $57.98 | $116K | −5.9% of holding | −22.7% | −21.8% | 31,951 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | van Es Charles | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $57.98 | $116K | −2.4% of holding | −22.7% | −21.8% | 79,691 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | BAKER COREY | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $58.86 | $118K | −5.6% of holding | −20.1% | −21.2% | 33,951 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Kirban Michael | director | Sale | 40,204 @ $58.00 | $2.3M | −6.6% of holding | −19.8% | −25.7% | 565,681 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Kirban Michael | director | Sale | 9,796 @ $58.00 | $568K | −1.6% of holding | −12.3% | −24.1% | 605,885 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Prior Jane | officer | Sale | 34,159 @ $52.73 | $1.8M | −19.3% of holding | −3.5% | −10.2% | 143,240 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Prior Jane | officer | Sale | 15,741 @ $53.32 | $839K | −11.0% of holding | −3.5% | −10.2% | 127,499 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Prior Jane | officer | Sale | 100 @ $54.08 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −3.5% | −10.2% | 127,399 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | LEAHY JOHN D | director | Sale | 27,300 @ $56.19 | $1.5M | −61.4% of holding | −7.0% | −4.5% | 17,179 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Morreau Jane Cecil | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $53.91 | $809K | −46.6% of holding | +6.1% | +5.7% | 17,179 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Sadowsky Kenneth | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $55.64 | $217K | −0.6% of holding | +11.7% | +22.3% | 604,366 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Liran Ira | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $56.65 | $1.7M | −5.0% of holding | −7.6% | −5.5% | 572,579 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Liran Ira | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $56.66 | $1.1M | −4.0% of holding | −7.6% | −5.5% | 478,341 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Sadowsky Kenneth | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $53.92 | $210K | −0.6% of holding | +0.2% | +21.3% | 608,266 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Sadowsky Kenneth | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $51.62 | $201K | −0.6% of holding | +4.1% | +50.0% | 612,166 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Liran Ira | director | Sale | 33,862 @ $50.27 | $1.7M | −5.3% of holding | +0.9% | +37.8% | 602,579 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Liran Ira | director | Sale | 25,381 @ $50.29 | $1.3M | −4.8% of holding | +0.9% | +37.8% | 498,341 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Sadowsky Kenneth | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $47.12 | $184K | −0.6% of holding | +10.1% | +47.6% | 616,066 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Liran Ira | director | Sale | 26,138 @ $50.09 | $1.3M | −3.9% of holding | +11.9% | +59.4% | 636,441 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $50.02 | $1.0M | −20.8% of holding | +11.9% | +59.4% | 76,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | van Es Charles | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $50.00 | $1.0M | −19.2% of holding | +11.9% | +59.4% | 84,328 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Sale | 17,666 @ $48.68 | $860K | −18.8% of holding | +11.9% | +59.4% | 76,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
144 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,801 | 47,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | van Es Charles | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,801 | 48,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Prior Jane | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,801 | 115,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 23,575 | 81,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 6,425 | 87,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 23,575 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 6,425 | 34,525 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Broader Shelley G | director | Award / grant | 1,530 | 2,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Dozie Aishetu Fatima | director | Award / grant | 1,530 | 16,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Liran Ira | director | Award / grant | 1,530 | 479,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Melloul Eric | director | Award / grant | 1,530 | 4,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Morreau Jane Cecil | director | Award / grant | 1,530 | 18,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Sadowsky Kenneth | director | Award / grant | 1,530 | 584,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Zupo John | director | Award / grant | 1,530 | 13,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 87,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 23,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 77,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 53,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 77,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 73,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 20,544 | 319,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 97,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 77,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 20,544 | 329,670 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 113,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Burth Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 93,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 323,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 350,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 323,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 375,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 323,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 400,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 323,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 425,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 323,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 450,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 323,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 475,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 4,456 | 302,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Roper Martin | director | Option exercise | 4,456 | 500,214 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.