Issued 2026-09-16 at $71.85 · now $71.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CNS has typically landed between $62.63 and $81.99 — a range of −12.8% to +14.1% from the issuance price $71.85.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($71.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CNS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $71.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $71.85 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $71.61 (-0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $67.17–$76.05
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $62.63–$81.99
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −54.4% | −54.4% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −51.1% | −51.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −51.0% | −51.0% | +3.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-03 | +51.5% | +0.0% | +54.3% |
| 2009-07-10 | +45.9% | +0.0% | +46.1% |
| 2009-03-05 | +44.8% | −0.8% | +50.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Dulik Elena | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $83.16 | $91K | −4.7% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,146 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Noonan Daniel | officer | Sale | 4,360 @ $77.33 | $337K | −100.0% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | Cheigh Jon | officer | Sale | 10,500 @ $71.75 | $753K | −13.6% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | POLI FRANCIS C | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $65.73 | $657K | −15.2% of holding | −1.5% | +17.1% | 55,675 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-11 | POLI FRANCIS C | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $66.00 | $330K | −7.1% of holding | +1.7% | +22.8% | 65,675 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | POLI FRANCIS C | officer | Sale | 4,696 @ $65.24 | $306K | −6.2% of holding | +1.7% | +22.8% | 70,675 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | COHEN MARTIN | director | Purchase | 12,708 @ $60.83 | $773K | +1.4% of holding | +1.2% | +7.1% | 949,205 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | COHEN MARTIN | director | Purchase | 22,633 @ $59.50 | $1.3M | +2.5% of holding | +1.6% | +9.7% | 921,838 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 19,000 @ $59.88 | $1.1M | +0.3% of holding | +1.6% | +9.7% | 7,147,497 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | COHEN MARTIN | director | Purchase | 14,659 @ $59.91 | $878K | +1.6% of holding | +1.6% | +9.7% | 936,497 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 6,000 @ $59.86 | $359K | +0.2% of holding | +1.6% | +9.7% | 3,897,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | COHEN MARTIN | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $59.69 | $3.0M | +5.9% of holding | +3.8% | +11.0% | 899,205 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 19,329 @ $67.61 | $1.3M | +0.3% of holding | −9.5% | −1.1% | 7,128,497 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-04 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 27,292 @ $67.95 | $1.9M | +0.4% of holding | −7.2% | −1.0% | 7,108,526 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 14,975 @ $67.96 | $1.0M | +0.4% of holding | −7.2% | −1.0% | 3,891,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 642 @ $68.39 | $44K | +0.0% of holding | −7.2% | −1.0% | 7,109,168 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 19,856 @ $68.15 | $1.4M | +0.3% of holding | −7.2% | −1.9% | 7,079,940 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 17,200 @ $68.21 | $1.2M | +0.4% of holding | −7.2% | −1.9% | 3,875,909 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 1,294 @ $68.66 | $89K | +0.0% of holding | −7.2% | −1.9% | 7,081,234 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 300 @ $68.65 | $21K | +0.0% of holding | −7.2% | −1.9% | 3,876,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 6,668 @ $69.87 | $466K | +0.1% of holding | −10.5% | −7.2% | 7,058,138 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-22 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 6,643 @ $69.87 | $464K | +0.2% of holding | −10.5% | −7.2% | 3,856,697 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-22 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 2,012 @ $70.53 | $142K | +0.1% of holding | −10.5% | −7.2% | 3,858,709 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-22 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 1,946 @ $70.54 | $137K | +0.0% of holding | −10.5% | −7.2% | 7,060,084 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-21 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 5,557 @ $71.30 | $396K | +0.1% of holding | −13.7% | −9.2% | 7,051,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 5,434 @ $71.31 | $387K | +0.1% of holding | −13.7% | −9.2% | 3,850,054 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 6,382 @ $69.50 | $444K | +0.1% of holding | −13.7% | −7.9% | 7,045,739 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 5,204 @ $69.44 | $361K | +0.1% of holding | −13.7% | −7.9% | 3,844,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 519 @ $69.94 | $36K | +0.0% of holding | −13.7% | −7.9% | 3,844,620 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | STEERS ROBERT HAMILTON | director | Purchase | 174 @ $69.96 | $12K | +0.0% of holding | −13.7% | −7.9% | 7,045,913 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Cheigh Jon | officer | Sale | 25,500 @ $80.01 | $2.0M | −15.2% of holding | −9.7% | −32.9% | 142,431 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
164 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | POLI FRANCIS C | officer | Award / grant | 198 | 56,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Dulik Elena | officer | Award / grant | 39 | 22,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Brown Brandon | officer | Award / grant | 104 | 18,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Cheigh Jon | officer | Award / grant | 715 | 95,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Harvey Joseph M | director | Award / grant | 1,338 | 1,340,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Noonan Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 215 | 29,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Muni Amit | officer | Award / grant | 95 | 11,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | DERECHIN ADAM M | director | Award / grant | 200 | 535,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Villani Edmond D | director | Gift | 472 | 4,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Villani Edmond D | director | Gift | 472 | 31,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Connor Frank T | director | Award / grant | 353 | 24,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Dolly Lisa | director | Award / grant | 353 | 2,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Villani Edmond D | director | Award / grant | 353 | 4,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Aggarwal Reena | director | Award / grant | 353 | 17,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | COHEN MARTIN | director | Award / grant | 353 | 950,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Smith Dasha | director | Award / grant | 353 | 10,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | THISSEN KAREN WILSON | director | Award / grant | 353 | 2,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Noonan Daniel | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,614 | 28,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Muni Amit | officer | Award / grant | 11,562 | 11,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Dulik Elena | officer | Award / grant | 46 | 23,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Cheigh Jon | officer | Award / grant | 811 | 94,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | POLI FRANCIS C | officer | Award / grant | 223 | 56,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Noonan Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 310 | 35,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Donohue Michael T. | officer | Award / grant | 187 | 32,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Harvey Joseph M | director | Award / grant | 1,514 | 1,339,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | DERECHIN ADAM M | director | Award / grant | 226 | 535,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Brown Brandon | officer | Award / grant | 117 | 17,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | DERECHIN ADAM M | director | Gift | 500 | 535,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Villani Edmond D | director | Gift | 433 | 4,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Villani Edmond D | director | Gift | 433 | 31,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Aggarwal Reena | director | Award / grant | 440 | 17,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Villani Edmond D | director | Award / grant | 440 | 5,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | COHEN MARTIN | director | Award / grant | 440 | 950,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Dolly Lisa | director | Award / grant | 440 | 2,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Connor Frank T | director | Award / grant | 440 | 24,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Smith Dasha | director | Award / grant | 440 | 9,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | THISSEN KAREN WILSON | director | Award / grant | 440 | 2,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Donohue Michael T. | officer | Award / grant | 213 | 32,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Dulik Elena | officer | Award / grant | 52 | 23,082 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Cheigh Jon | officer | Award / grant | 924 | 93,470 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.