Issued 2026-09-16 at $55.55 · now $55.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CNO has typically landed between $50.24 and $62.32 — a range of −9.6% to +12.2% from the issuance price $55.55.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($55.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CNO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $55.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $55.55 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $56.57 (+1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $54.16–$58.98
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $50.24–$62.32
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-02-06 | −86.4% | −86.4% | +1.4% |
| 2009-01-30 | −83.7% | −83.7% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-03 | −81.8% | −81.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-10 | +396.2% | +0.0% | +442.0% |
| 2009-03-17 | +380.9% | +0.0% | +380.9% |
| 2009-03-12 | +352.8% | +0.0% | +352.8% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−2.3%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.1%
n=19
Mar
53%
−1.4%
n=19
Apr
53%
+5.0%
n=19
May
53%
+2.2%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.2%
n=19
Jul
58%
+3.7%
n=19
Aug
58%
+1.7%
n=19
Sep
58%
−0.7%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.2%
n=18
Nov
72%
+9.8%
n=18
Dec
61%
+4.3%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Williams Jeremy D. | officer | Sale | 3,240 @ $55.71 | $181K | −5.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,163 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-16 | Williams Jeremy D. | officer | Sale | 1,122 @ $55.72 | $63K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 61,041 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Williams Jeremy D. | officer | Sale | 4,420 @ $55.27 | $244K | −6.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,163 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | DeToro Karen J. | officer | Sale | 5,964 @ $55.12 | $329K | −14.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,450 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Linnenbringer Jeanne L. | officer | Sale | 3,919 @ $55.11 | $216K | −13.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,209 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | DeToro Karen J. | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $54.74 | $411K | −15.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 42,414 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Linnenbringer Jeanne L. | officer | Sale | 4,060 @ $54.73 | $222K | −11.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,128 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | DeToro Karen J. | officer | Sale | 1,836 @ $54.73 | $100K | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 42,414 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | DeToro Karen J. | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $54.98 | $412K | −14.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,250 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Linnenbringer Jeanne L. | officer | Sale | 5,010 @ $54.99 | $275K | −12.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,188 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | DeToro Karen J. | officer | Sale | 1,874 @ $54.98 | $103K | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,250 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Linnenbringer Jeanne L. | officer | Sale | 1,550 @ $54.98 | $85K | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,188 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Tarasi Rocco F. III | officer | Sale | 1,891 @ $51.31 | $97K | −2.4% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,300 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-30 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Sale | 44,250 @ $51.48 | $2.3M | −17.0% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 216,062 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Sale | 41,798 @ $51.48 | $2.2M | −19.3% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 174,264 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Tarasi Rocco F. III | officer | Sale | 5,750 @ $50.00 | $288K | −6.8% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,191 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-10 | Tarasi Rocco F. III | officer | Sale | 3,308 @ $49.00 | $162K | −4.0% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,191 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Tarasi Rocco F. III | officer | Sale | 4,808 @ $47.00 | $226K | −5.5% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,499 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Goldberg Scott L. | officer | Sale | 11,060 @ $39.54 | $437K | −4.9% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 214,524 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Goldberg Scott L. | officer | Sale | 11,060 @ $39.97 | $442K | −4.9% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 214,524 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Sale | 43,021 @ $43.05 | $1.9M | −13.4% of holding | −3.0% | +20.1% | 277,526 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Zimpfer Matthew J. | officer | Sale | 33,800 @ $43.05 | $1.5M | −9.9% of holding | −3.0% | +20.1% | 307,937 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Sale | 45,357 @ $43.17 | $2.0M | −12.4% of holding | −3.3% | +18.8% | 320,547 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Zimpfer Matthew J. | officer | Sale | 23,570 @ $43.17 | $1.0M | −7.1% of holding | −3.3% | +18.8% | 307,937 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Franzese Yvonne K. | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $43.18 | $130K | −7.3% of holding | −3.3% | +18.8% | 38,062 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Franzese Yvonne K. | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $43.17 | $130K | −7.9% of holding | −3.3% | +18.8% | 35,062 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Franzese Yvonne K. | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $43.16 | $129K | −6.8% of holding | −3.3% | +18.8% | 41,062 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Zimpfer Matthew J. | officer | Sale | 30,970 @ $42.93 | $1.3M | −9.1% of holding | −4.3% | +14.8% | 307,937 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Sale | 31,430 @ $41.99 | $1.3M | −13.8% of holding | −0.7% | +16.3% | 195,926 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-15 | Tarasi Rocco F. III | officer | Sale | 6,051 @ $42.25 | $256K | −7.3% of holding | −3.8% | +11.0% | 77,164 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-15 | Tarasi Rocco F. III | officer | Sale | 3,232 @ $43.25 | $140K | −4.2% of holding | −3.8% | +11.0% | 73,932 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-24 | Franzese Yvonne K. | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $41.00 | $123K | −12.2% of holding | +3.7% | +0.7% | 21,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Sale | 31,430 @ $39.97 | $1.3M | −12.1% of holding | +4.5% | +3.6% | 227,356 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Johnson Eric R. | officer | Sale | 48,665 @ $41.24 | $2.0M | −6.8% of holding | −0.7% | +3.9% | 671,542 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | DeToro Karen J. | officer | Sale | 9,228 @ $37.85 | $349K | −18.1% of holding | +0.3% | +8.9% | 41,855 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Linnenbringer Jeanne L. | officer | Sale | 3,457 @ $37.85 | $131K | −10.1% of holding | +0.3% | +8.9% | 30,844 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-14 | DeToro Karen J. | officer | Sale | 6,509 @ $37.98 | $247K | −11.3% of holding | +1.5% | +7.8% | 51,083 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Linnenbringer Jeanne L. | officer | Sale | 4,862 @ $37.98 | $185K | −12.4% of holding | +1.5% | +7.8% | 34,301 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | DeToro Karen J. | officer | Sale | 9,920 @ $37.96 | $377K | −14.7% of holding | +1.0% | +7.5% | 57,592 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Linnenbringer Jeanne L. | officer | Sale | 4,420 @ $37.96 | $168K | −9.7% of holding | +1.0% | +7.5% | 41,163 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Linnenbringer Jeanne L. | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $37.96 | $76K | −4.9% of holding | +1.0% | +7.5% | 39,163 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-07 | Mead Michael E. | officer | Sale | 12,581 @ $37.97 | $478K | −44.4% of holding | −4.5% | +4.5% | 15,729 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-03 | Mead Michael E. | officer | Sale | 12,389 @ $38.20 | $473K | −30.4% of holding | −7.3% | +1.3% | 28,310 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $40.17 | $602K | −6.9% of holding | −10.6% | −24.5% | 202,666 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-02 | Williams Jeremy D. | officer | Sale | 3,393 @ $41.77 | $142K | −5.7% of holding | −10.3% | −25.8% | 56,599 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-01 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Sale | 20,697 @ $41.35 | $856K | −8.7% of holding | −11.1% | −25.7% | 217,666 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Sale | 18,215 @ $41.36 | $753K | −7.1% of holding | −11.1% | −25.7% | 238,363 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Williams Jeremy D. | officer | Sale | 2,917 @ $41.39 | $121K | −4.6% of holding | −11.1% | −25.7% | 59,992 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Williams Jeremy D. | officer | Sale | 2,390 @ $41.41 | $99K | −3.7% of holding | −11.1% | −25.7% | 62,909 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Williams Jeremy D. | officer | Sale | 11,300 @ $41.51 | $469K | −14.8% of holding | −8.1% | −24.0% | 65,299 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-28 | Franzese Yvonne K. | officer | Sale | 2,013 @ $42.18 | $85K | −6.9% of holding | −8.1% | −24.0% | 26,994 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-27 | Franzese Yvonne K. | officer | Sale | 1,314 @ $42.35 | $56K | −4.3% of holding | −2.7% | −21.7% | 29,007 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Franzese Yvonne K. | officer | Sale | 2,097 @ $42.56 | $89K | −6.5% of holding | −3.4% | −22.6% | 30,321 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-24 | Franzese Yvonne K. | officer | Sale | 8,109 @ $42.00 | $341K | −17.4% of holding | −0.5% | −21.4% | 38,540 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Sale | 27,918 @ $40.98 | $1.1M | −8.4% of holding | −0.5% | −21.5% | 304,819 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-17 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Sale | 32,204 @ $41.02 | $1.3M | −8.8% of holding | −2.8% | −23.1% | 332,737 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Goldberg Scott L. | officer | Sale | 25,500 @ $40.02 | $1.0M | −13.1% of holding | +4.6% | −12.7% | 169,342 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | Goldberg Scott L. | officer | Sale | 25,500 @ $40.11 | $1.0M | −13.1% of holding | +7.8% | −12.3% | 169,342 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Zimpfer Matthew J. | officer | Sale | 40,800 @ $40.10 | $1.6M | −16.7% of holding | +10.5% | −7.8% | 204,143 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-19 | Zimpfer Matthew J. | officer | Sale | 40,800 @ $41.49 | $1.7M | −14.3% of holding | +7.5% | −10.7% | 244,943 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
161 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Williams Jeremy D. | officer | Option exercise | 3,240 | 65,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Williams Jeremy D. | officer | Option exercise | 3,240 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Williams Jeremy D. | officer | Option exercise | 4,420 | 66,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Williams Jeremy D. | officer | Option exercise | 4,420 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | DeToro Karen J. | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 49,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | DeToro Karen J. | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 34,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | DeToro Karen J. | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 51,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Linnenbringer Jeanne L. | officer | Option exercise | 5,010 | 39,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Linnenbringer Jeanne L. | officer | Option exercise | 5,010 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | DeToro Karen J. | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 41,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Option exercise | 44,250 | 260,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Option exercise | 44,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Tarasi Rocco F. III | officer | Option exercise | 5,750 | 84,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Tarasi Rocco F. III | officer | Option exercise | 5,750 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Goldberg Scott L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 396 | 206,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Maurer Daniel R | director | Award / grant | 6,043 | 108,102 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Brown Archie M | director | Award / grant | 3,574 | 20,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Foss David B | director | Award / grant | 3,574 | 52,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Lee Adrianne | director | Award / grant | 3,574 | 20,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Shebik Steven E | director | Award / grant | 3,574 | 56,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Turner Jessica A | director | Award / grant | 3,574 | 10,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Ragavan Chetlur S | director | Award / grant | 3,574 | 33,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Gibson Linda T. | director | Award / grant | 3,574 | 4,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | DeToro Karen J. | officer | Gift | 4,400 | 46,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Withheld for tax | 45,746 | 231,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | McDonough Paul H. | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,063 | 234,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Goldberg Scott L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,036 | 206,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Zimpfer Matthew J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,481 | 300,456 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Johnson Eric R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,081 | 693,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Franzese Yvonne K. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,049 | 29,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Tarasi Rocco F. III | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,141 | 87,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | DeToro Karen J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,056 | 50,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Mead Michael E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,953 | 22,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Linnenbringer Jeanne L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,649 | 35,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Williams Jeremy D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,005 | 62,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Koehneman Joel T. | officer | Withheld for tax | 202 | 5,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Goldberg Scott L. | officer | Option exercise | 11,060 | 225,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Goldberg Scott L. | officer | Option exercise | 11,060 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Goldberg Scott L. | officer | Option exercise | 11,060 | 225,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Goldberg Scott L. | officer | Option exercise | 11,060 | 11,060 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-11 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-09 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.