CNNECannae Holdings, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.18 · now $15.18 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CNNE has typically landed between $12.63 and $17.23 — a range of −16.8% to +13.5% from the issuance price $15.18.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,195 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-11-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CNNE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$12.63worst · -16.8%$17.23best · +13.5%
  • now $15.18 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.13 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.17–$16.08
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.63–$17.23
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,195 windows spanning 2017-11-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−45.1%−45.1%+1.1%
2020-02-14−35.1%−35.4%+1.4%
2020-02-19−34.9%−45.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+34.9%+0.0%+46.8%
2019-10-23+34.5%+0.0%+34.5%
2019-10-29+34.3%+0.0%+34.3%

2,195 overlapping windows · 2017-11-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.9%
n=9
Feb
44%
−1.1%
n=9
Mar
44%
−3.2%
n=9
Apr
44%
−0.4%
n=9
May
44%
+1.1%
n=9
Jun
56%
+2.5%
n=9
Jul
56%
+1.4%
n=9
Aug
44%
−0.9%
n=9
Sep
11%
−1.7%
n=9
Oct
50%
+0.6%
n=8
Nov
63%
+3.2%
n=8
Dec
33%
+1.2%
n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$19$112026-04-08: 1 insider sale, $2K — SADOWSKI PETER T2025-09-02: 1 insider sale, $488K — MARTIRE FRANK R2025-08-29: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — MARTIRE FRANK R2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $2.0M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $488K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $2K↑ buys↓ salesofficer SADOWSKI PETER T — Sale on 2026-04-08, filed 20 days after the tradedirector MARTIRE FRANK R — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MARTIRE FRANK R — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed 5 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-04-08SADOWSKI PETER TofficerSale157 @ $12.25$2K−100.0% of holding+6.4%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade
2025-09-02MARTIRE FRANK RdirectorSale26,478 @ $18.43$488K−100.0% of holding−6.4%−43.1%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-29MARTIRE FRANK RdirectorSale106,855 @ $18.63$2.0M−80.1% of holding−4.9%−42.0%26,478Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

84 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13Caswell Ryan R.directorWithheld for tax13,116309,898Form 4
2026-08-13Caswell Ryan R.directorDisposition33,333366,667Form 4
2026-08-13Caswell Ryan R.directorAward / grant33,333323,014Form 4
2026-06-30Ammerman Douglas KdirectorAward / grant3,03972,025Form 4
2026-06-30Schaible Cherie LdirectorAward / grant2,17110,861Form 4
2026-06-30Harris Hugh RdirectorAward / grant1,12970,446Form 4
2026-06-30Tyler WoodrowdirectorAward / grant1,08616,342Form 4
2026-03-31Ammerman Douglas KdirectorAward / grant3,84868,986Form 4
2026-03-31Schaible Cherie LdirectorAward / grant2,4378,690Form 4
2026-03-31Harris Hugh RdirectorAward / grant1,43069,317Form 4
2026-03-31Tyler WoodrowdirectorAward / grant1,37515,256Form 4
2026-03-19Gravelle Michael LofficerWithheld for tax1,681182,912Form 4
2026-03-13Caswell Ryan R.directorWithheld for tax19,597289,681Form 4
2026-03-13Coy Bryan D.officerWithheld for tax4,24583,987Form 4
2026-03-13SADOWSKI PETER TofficerWithheld for tax2,435101,471Form 4
2026-03-09SADOWSKI PETER TofficerAward / grant20,765103,906Form 4
2026-03-09Gravelle Michael LofficerAward / grant20,765184,593Form 4
2026-03-09Caswell Ryan R.directorAward / grant150,000400,000Form 4
2026-03-09FOLEY WILLIAM P IIdirectorAward / grant150,000150,000Form 4
2026-02-28Caswell Ryan R.directorWithheld for tax19,675250,000Form 4
2026-02-28Caswell Ryan R.directorWithheld for tax18,218309,278Form 4
2026-02-28Coy Bryan D.officerWithheld for tax4,59088,232Form 4
2026-02-28SADOWSKI PETER TofficerWithheld for tax3,43283,141Form 4
2026-02-28Caswell Ryan R.directorAward / grant30,325327,496Form 4
2026-02-28Caswell Ryan R.directorDisposition30,325269,675Form 4
2026-02-26Caswell Ryan R.directorWithheld for tax19,675330,325Form 4
2026-02-26Gravelle Michael LofficerWithheld for tax1,266163,828Form 4
2026-02-26SADOWSKI PETER TofficerWithheld for tax88686,573Form 4
2026-02-26Coy Bryan D.officerWithheld for tax76092,822Form 4
2026-02-26Caswell Ryan R.directorAward / grant30,325297,171Form 4
2026-02-26Caswell Ryan R.directorDisposition30,325300,000Form 4
2025-12-31Ammerman Douglas KdirectorAward / grant2,78265,138Form 4
2025-12-31Harris Hugh RdirectorAward / grant1,03467,887Form 4
2025-12-31Tyler WoodrowdirectorAward / grant99413,881Form 4
2025-12-31Schaible Cherie LdirectorAward / grant2776,253Form 4
2025-12-15Schaible Cherie LdirectorAward / grant4,6165,976Form 4
2025-12-15Aboelnaga MonadirectorAward / grant4,6165,123Form 4
2025-11-12FOLEY WILLIAM P IIdirectorAward / grant15,6351,008,235Form 4
2025-11-12Harris Hugh RdirectorAward / grant7,81866,853Form 4
2025-11-12Holland C Malcolm IIIdirectorAward / grant7,81834,733Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.