CNMD · TickerCove

CNMDCONMED CorporationHealthcare · Medical - Devicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $47.04 · now $47.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CNMD has typically landed between $38.87 and $54.35 — a range of −17.4% to +15.5% from the issuance price $47.04.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($47.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$47.04 · 72% of range

$32.11 low$52.74 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.9%

typical move · IQR 14.8%

−17.4%worst (p90)+15.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CNMD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $47.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $47.04 (+0.0%)
typical $46.13 (-1.9%)
middle 50% $42.65–$49.62
90% range $38.87–$54.35

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−61.4%	−61.4%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−58.9%	−58.9%	+1.4%
2020-02-20	−53.8%	−58.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18	+66.3%	−6.6%	+73.9%
2020-03-23	+64.3%	+0.0%	+86.1%
2026-07-02	+53.3%	−0.7%	+53.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−0.8%

n=20

Feb

75%

+2.6%

n=20

Mar

65%

+0.1%

n=20

Apr

45%

+0.8%

n=20

May

55%

+1.6%

n=20

Jun

40%

−0.3%

n=20

Jul

55%

+2.1%

n=20

Aug

55%

+0.4%

n=20

Sep

30%

−1.3%

n=20

Oct

40%

+0.4%

n=20

Nov

60%

+2.4%

n=20

Dec

65%

+2.6%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-11-21	Glaze Richard	officer	Sale	257 @ $41.21	$11K	−100.0% of holding	−12.0%	−31.6%	0	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-06	Garner Todd W	officer	Sale	3,500 @ $43.00	$151K	−65.6% of holding	−10.2%	−31.2%	1,836	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-12	Farkas Charles	director	Sale	1,103 @ $53.53	$59K	−6.5% of holding	−18.8%	−31.4%	15,756	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-12	Farkas Charles	director	Sale	897 @ $53.51	$48K	−5.7% of holding	−18.8%	−31.4%	14,859	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-07	Garner Todd W	officer	Sale	598 @ $52.45	$31K	−100.0% of holding	−1.8%	−31.8%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05	Farkas Charles	director	Sale	4,000 @ $56.94	$228K	−19.7% of holding	−6.5%	−42.6%	16,346	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-11	Glaze Richard	officer	Sale	257 @ $65.35	$17K	−100.0% of holding	−1.2%	−21.7%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

105 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-08	Kelderman Kim	director	Option exercise	500	500	Form 4
2026-09-08	Kelderman Kim	director	Option exercise	500	0	Form 4
2026-07-15	Gallagher John E	officer	Award / grant	26,875	61,929	Form 4
2026-07-15	Gallagher John E	officer	Award / grant	35,054	35,054	Form 4
2026-07-15	Gallagher John E	officer	Award / grant	30,536	30,536	Form 4
2026-07-01	Mirviss Jeffrey B.	director	Award / grant	5,603	5,603	Form 4
2026-07-01	Martin Celine Christine	director	Award / grant	5,603	5,603	Form 4
2026-06-02	Kaye Mark	director	Option exercise	668	0	Form 4
2026-06-02	Bronson David M.	director	Option exercise	668	17,909	Form 4
2026-06-02	Farkas Charles	director	Option exercise	668	15,527	Form 4
2026-06-02	Farkas Charles	director	Option exercise	668	0	Form 4
2026-06-02	Council LaVerne H	director	Option exercise	668	4,716	Form 4
2026-06-02	Bronson David M.	director	Option exercise	668	0	Form 4
2026-06-02	Council LaVerne H	director	Option exercise	668	0	Form 4
2026-06-02	Schwarzentraub Barbara J	director	Option exercise	668	0	Form 4
2026-06-02	Kaye Mark	director	Option exercise	668	820	Form 4
2026-06-02	Schwarzentraub Barbara J	director	Option exercise	668	5,012	Form 4
2026-06-01	Bronson David M.	director	Award / grant	5,772	5,772	Form 4
2026-06-01	Schwarzentraub Barbara J	director	Award / grant	5,772	5,772	Form 4
2026-06-01	Kaye Mark	director	Award / grant	5,772	5,772	Form 4
2026-06-01	Farkas Charles	director	Award / grant	5,772	5,772	Form 4
2026-06-01	Kelderman Kim	director	Award / grant	5,772	5,772	Form 4
2026-06-01	Council LaVerne H	director	Award / grant	5,772	5,772	Form 4
2026-04-01	Beyer Pat	director	Award / grant	28,145	28,145	Form 4
2026-03-06	Lalomia Brent	officer	Withheld for tax	26	915	Form 4
2026-03-06	Lalomia Brent	officer	Option exercise	75	0	Form 4
2026-03-06	Lalomia Brent	officer	Option exercise	75	941	Form 4
2026-03-02	SHAGORY PETER K	officer	Award / grant	10,999	10,999	Form 4
2026-03-02	Schabacker Matthew	officer	Award / grant	9,827	9,827	Form 4
2026-03-02	Schabacker Matthew	officer	Award / grant	11,646	11,646	Form 4
2026-03-02	Beyer Pat	director	Award / grant	28,800	28,800	Form 4
2026-03-02	Beyer Pat	director	Award / grant	68,258	68,258	Form 4
2026-03-02	Ferrell John D.	officer	Award / grant	9,282	9,282	Form 4
2026-03-02	Ferrell John D.	officer	Award / grant	10,999	10,999	Form 4
2026-03-02	Foust Hollie K	officer	Award / grant	10,919	10,919	Form 4
2026-03-02	Foust Hollie K	officer	Award / grant	12,940	12,940	Form 4
2026-03-02	Pelletier Johonna Marie	officer	Award / grant	5,896	5,896	Form 4
2026-03-02	Lalomia Brent	officer	Award / grant	9,554	9,554	Form 4
2026-03-02	Lalomia Brent	officer	Award / grant	11,322	11,322	Form 4
2026-03-02	SHAGORY PETER K	officer	Award / grant	9,282	9,282	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i