CNK · TickerCove

CNKCinemark Holdings, Inc.Communication Services · Entertainmentas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.03 · now $34.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CNK has typically landed between $27.82 and $41.69 — a range of −18.2% to +22.5% from the issuance price $34.03.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,859 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-04-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$34.03 · 74% of range

$21.79 low$38.4 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.4%

typical move · IQR 18.1%

−18.2%worst (p90)+22.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CNK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $34.03 (+0.0%)
typical $34.51 (+1.4%)
middle 50% $31.42–$37.59
90% range $27.82–$41.69

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,859 windows spanning 2007-04-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−78.9%	−78.9%	+3.0%
2020-02-14	−77.1%	−77.1%	+6.1%
2020-03-02	−67.0%	−73.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18	+105.6%	+0.0%	+105.6%
2020-11-02	+104.8%	+0.0%	+104.8%
2020-10-28	+103.7%	−0.6%	+105.7%

4,859 overlapping windows · 2007-04-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

53%

+2.5%

n=19

Feb

68%

+6.5%

n=19

Mar

58%

+0.0%

n=19

Apr

63%

+4.9%

n=19

May

55%

+0.5%

n=20

Jun

35%

−1.4%

n=20

Jul

65%

+1.5%

n=20

Aug

60%

+1.5%

n=20

Sep

55%

−0.6%

n=20

Oct

58%

−1.4%

n=19

Nov

58%

+5.4%

n=19

Dec

32%

−3.2%

n=19

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-01	Zoradi Mark	director	Sale	150,000 @ $29.52	$4.4M	−34.4% of holding	+5.8%	not yet — horizon still open	286,608	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-04	Thomas Melissa	officer	Sale	7,944 @ $26.05	$207K	−4.7% of holding	+12.1%	+39.0%	159,416	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-10	Thomas Melissa	officer	Sale	22,082 @ $24.81	$548K	−11.7% of holding	−6.5%	+26.9%	167,360	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-15	Thomas Melissa	officer	Sale	7,200 @ $25.17	$181K	−3.4% of holding	+9.2%	−7.1%	203,768	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-13	Gierhart Wanda Marie	officer	Sale	52,524 @ $31.85	$1.7M	−35.6% of holding	−11.5%	−37.7%	94,890	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-27	Fernandes Valmir	officer	Sale	25,000 @ $33.01	$825K	−16.1% of holding	−13.3%	−30.3%	130,612	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15	Thomas Melissa	officer	Sale	7,200 @ $31.43	$226K	−3.3% of holding	−1.6%	−20.0%	210,968	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-28	Thomas Melissa	officer	Sale	7,200 @ $25.59	$184K	−3.2% of holding	+3.1%	−7.6%	218,168	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-25	Gierhart Wanda Marie	officer	Sale	9,119 @ $27.00	$246K	−5.8% of holding	+2.0%	−11.6%	147,414	Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-16	Thomas Melissa	officer	Sale	14,400 @ $32.01	$461K	−5.7% of holding	−9.7%	+0.9%	238,494	Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-06	Gamble Sean	officer	Sale	127,672 @ $34.85	$4.4M	−16.3% of holding	−10.8%	−7.7%	655,104	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-06	Cavalier Michael	officer	Sale	2,797 @ $35.19	$98K	−0.8% of holding	−10.8%	−7.7%	329,466	Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-05	Cavalier Michael	officer	Sale	25,100 @ $35.57	$893K	−7.0% of holding	−11.0%	−10.6%	332,263	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-11-21	Zoradi Mark	director	Sale	85,229 @ $32.38	$2.8M	−16.3% of holding	−6.0%	+3.5%	436,608	Form 4 · filed 396 days after the trade
2020-12-11	Zoradi Mark	director	Sale	2,000 @ $16.17	$32K	−1.6% of holding	+4.7%	+19.2%	121,846	Form 4 · filed 1837 days after the trade
2020-03-16	Zoradi Mark	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $10.58	$212K	+19.3% of holding	−2.5%	−21.0%	123,846	Form 4 · filed 2107 days after the trade
2020-02-26	Zoradi Mark	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $25.45	$127K	+5.1% of holding	−32.8%	−60.5%	103,846	Form 4 · filed 2126 days after the trade
2020-02-26	Zoradi Mark	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $25.38	$127K	+5.3% of holding	−32.8%	−60.5%	98,846	Form 4 · filed 2126 days after the trade
2020-02-25	Zoradi Mark	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $28.77	$288K	+11.9% of holding	−36.4%	−60.1%	93,846	Form 4 · filed 2127 days after the trade
2017-09-08	Zoradi Mark	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $32.19	$161K	+56.1% of holding	+8.2%	+15.3%	13,920	Form 4 · filed 3027 days after the trade
2017-08-28	Zoradi Mark	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $32.83	$164K	+127.6% of holding	+8.0%	+18.3%	8,920	Form 4 · filed 3038 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

187 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-11	Fernandes Valmir	officer	Disposition	20,000	106,386	Form 4
2026-09-01	Cavalier Michael	officer	Disposition	107,296	223,385	Form 4
2026-08-31	Gamble Sean	officer	Disposition	7,191	439,487	Form 4
2026-08-24	Gamble Sean	officer	Disposition	138,884	446,678	Form 4
2026-08-20	Thomas Melissa	officer	Disposition	38,236	129,076	Form 4
2026-08-12	Burian Lawrence J.	director	Award / grant	3,908	3,908	Form 4
2026-07-28	Gierhart Wanda Marie	officer	Disposition	9,450	58,082	Form 4
2026-06-15	SENIOR ENRIQUE	director	Award / grant	5,439	71,479	Form 4
2026-06-15	Sepulveda Carlos M	director	Award / grant	5,439	87,428	Form 4
2026-06-15	Mitchell Kevin Leroy	director	Award / grant	5,439	24,870	Form 4
2026-06-15	ROSENBERG STEVE	director	Award / grant	5,439	17,003	Form 4
2026-06-15	Loewe Nancy S.	director	Award / grant	5,439	55,028	Form 4
2026-06-15	Humrichouse Ximena G	director	Award / grant	5,439	57,222	Form 4
2026-06-15	Syufy Raymond W	director	Award / grant	5,439	9,639	Form 4
2026-06-15	Zoradi Mark	director	Award / grant	5,439	9,639	Form 4
2026-06-15	Antonellis Darcy	director	Award / grant	5,439	60,702	Form 4
2026-06-15	CHERESKIN BENJAMIN D	director	Award / grant	5,439	108,148	Form 4
2026-06-11	Fernandes Valmir	officer	Disposition	30,000	126,386	Form 4
2026-06-11	Humrichouse Ximena G	director	Gift	3,503	51,783	Form 4
2026-06-10	Gierhart Wanda Marie	officer	Disposition	23,456	67,532	Form 4
2026-06-09	Gierhart Wanda Marie	officer	Disposition	23,456	90,988	Form 4
2026-06-08	Gierhart Wanda Marie	officer	Disposition	2,769	114,444	Form 4
2026-06-04	Bedard Caren	officer	Disposition	8,000	33,276	Form 4
2026-05-12	Thomas Melissa	officer	Disposition	37,784	167,312	Form 4
2026-04-06	Gamble Sean	officer	Disposition	109,455	585,562	Form 4
2026-04-06	Gierhart Wanda Marie	officer	Disposition	11,169	117,213	Form 4
2026-04-06	Zoradi Mark	director	Gift	7,364	293,972	Form 4
2026-04-01	Bedard Caren	officer	Award / grant	700	41,276	Form 4
2026-02-27	Gamble Sean	officer	Disposition	73,206	695,017	Form 4
2026-02-27	Thomas Melissa	officer	Disposition	32,396	205,096	Form 4
2026-02-21	Gamble Sean	officer	Withheld for tax	11,791	654,873	Form 4
2026-02-21	Thomas Melissa	officer	Withheld for tax	2,608	237,492	Form 4
2026-02-21	Cavalier Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	2,445	124,325	Form 4
2026-02-21	Gierhart Wanda Marie	officer	Withheld for tax	2,118	128,382	Form 4
2026-02-21	Fernandes Valmir	officer	Withheld for tax	2,115	105,771	Form 4
2026-02-21	Bedard Caren	officer	Withheld for tax	428	40,576	Form 4
2026-02-21	Fernandes Valmir	officer	Gift	68,256	37,515	Form 4
2026-02-21	Gamble Sean	officer	Gift	435,589	219,284	Form 4
2026-02-21	Cavalier Michael	officer	Gift	82,052	42,273	Form 4
2026-02-20	Gamble Sean	officer	Award / grant	554,794	806,120	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i