CNHCNH Industrial N.V.Industrials · Agricultural - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.52 · now $13.52 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CNH has typically landed between $11.67 and $15.67 — a range of −13.7% to +15.9% from the issuance price $13.52.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CNH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$11.67worst · -13.7%$15.67best · +15.9%
  • now $13.52 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.42 (-0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.6–$14.24
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.67–$15.67
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−57.2%−57.2%+0.0%
2009-01-02−56.2%−57.3%+9.4%
2008-09-25−53.8%−53.8%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+96.0%+0.0%+101.6%
2009-03-06+83.1%+0.0%+85.3%
2009-03-04+81.3%−10.1%+81.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.8%
n=20
Feb
60%
+2.5%
n=20
Mar
50%
+0.2%
n=20
Apr
50%
+4.7%
n=20
May
45%
−1.7%
n=20
Jun
50%
−2.1%
n=20
Jul
50%
+4.3%
n=20
Aug
35%
−1.5%
n=20
Sep
45%
−2.0%
n=20
Oct
70%
+4.8%
n=20
Nov
55%
+5.0%
n=20
Dec
60%
+1.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$14$92026-05-04: 1 insider sale, $490K — Tutino Francesco Vincenzo Maria2025-11-18: 1 insider purchase, $500K — Heywood Suzanne2025-11-12: 1 insider purchase, $42K — Buffett Howard W.2025-11-11: 2 insider purchases, $158K — Sorensen Vagn O, Buffett Howard W.2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $154K2025-11: 4 open-market purchases, $700K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $490K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Tutino Francesco Vincenzo Maria — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Heywood Suzanne — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Buffett Howard W. — Purchase on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Sorensen Vagn O — Purchase on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Buffett Howard W. — Purchase on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-04Tutino Francesco Vincenzo MariaofficerSale48,385 @ $10.13$490K−40.2% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open71,926Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-18Heywood SuzannedirectorPurchase52,522 @ $9.52$500K+9.3% of holding−1.0%−5.4%619,427Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Buffett Howard W.directorPurchase4,100 @ $10.29$42K+14.0% of holding−3.9%−7.8%33,403Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11Sorensen Vagn OdirectorPurchase10,385 @ $9.62$100K+34.6% of holding−0.5%−2.2%40,396Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11Buffett Howard W.directorPurchase6,000 @ $9.68$58K+25.7% of holding−0.5%−2.2%29,303Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-06Tutino Francesco Vincenzo MariaofficerSale12,271 @ $12.53$154K−45.1% of holding−10.0%−11.6%14,940Form 4 · filed 44 days after the trade
2025-05-13Sorensen Vagn OdirectorSale2,525 @ $13.34$34K−7.8% of holding−5.5%−41.7%30,011Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13KRAMER RICHARD JdirectorSale245 @ $13.34$3K−4.4% of holding−5.5%−41.7%5,291Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13Nasi AlessandrodirectorSale245 @ $13.34$3K−0.1% of holding−5.5%−41.7%361,493Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-13Linehan KarendirectorSale181 @ $13.34$2K−1.0% of holding−5.5%−41.7%17,258Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13Tamsons AsadirectorSale179 @ $13.34$2K−1.9% of holding−5.5%−41.7%9,057Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13Buffett Howard W.directorSale99 @ $13.34$1K−0.4% of holding−5.5%−41.7%23,303Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13Bastoni Elizabeth A.directorSale99 @ $13.34$1K−1.8% of holding−5.5%−41.7%5,437Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-09Incisa OddoneofficerSale22,515 @ $12.70$286K−2.6% of holding−4.0%−42.5%856,574Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-09Heywood SuzannedirectorSale11,053 @ $12.70$140K−1.9% of holding−4.0%−42.5%566,905Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-09Pampalone StefanoofficerSale8,543 @ $12.70$108K−1.9% of holding−4.0%−42.5%432,541Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-09Russo RobertoofficerSale7,632 @ $12.70$97K−3.8% of holding−4.0%−42.5%194,792Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-09Manley KellyofficerSale3,575 @ $12.70$45K−2.2% of holding−4.0%−42.5%161,473Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-09Schroeder JayofficerSale2,154 @ $12.70$27K−6.2% of holding−4.0%−42.5%32,762Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-09MacLeod DouglasofficerSale1,992 @ $12.70$25K−12.6% of holding−4.0%−42.5%13,846Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-09Chishti HumayunofficerSale1,217 @ $12.70$15K−19.6% of holding−4.0%−42.5%5,006Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-04Marx Gerrit A.directorSale320,472 @ $11.64$3.7M−46.1% of holding+6.7%−15.1%375,136Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04Incisa OddoneofficerSale32,910 @ $11.64$383K−3.9% of holding+6.7%−15.1%821,156Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04Heywood SuzannedirectorSale24,213 @ $11.64$282K−4.2% of holding+6.7%−15.1%551,858Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04Pampalone StefanoofficerSale12,935 @ $11.64$151K−3.0% of holding+6.7%−15.1%417,384Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04Russo RobertoofficerSale11,156 @ $11.64$130K−5.8% of holding+6.7%−15.1%182,791Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04Manley KellyofficerSale5,613 @ $11.64$65K−3.6% of holding+6.7%−15.1%148,815Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04Schroeder JayofficerSale1,857 @ $11.64$22K−6.6% of holding+6.7%−15.1%26,391Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04MacLeod DouglasofficerSale1,697 @ $11.64$20K−16.0% of holding+6.7%−15.1%8,938Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04Chishti HumayunofficerSale1,132 @ $11.64$13K−41.1% of holding+6.7%−15.1%1,623Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04Schroeder JayofficerSale233 @ $11.64$3K−0.9% of holding+6.7%−15.1%26,766Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

154 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-26MacLeod DouglasofficerAward / grant19,05757,009Form 4
2026-05-26Pampalone StefanoofficerAward / grant44,899114,440Form 4
2026-05-26Palmer Richard KeithdirectorAward / grant5,6345,634Form 4
2026-05-26Heywood SuzannedirectorAward / grant41,080115,105Form 4
2026-05-26Chishti HumayunofficerAward / grant15,46944,408Form 4
2026-05-26Sorensen Vagn OdirectorAward / grant5,6345,634Form 4
2026-05-26Simonelli LorenzodirectorAward / grant5,6345,634Form 4
2026-05-26Nasi AlessandrodirectorAward / grant5,6345,634Form 4
2026-05-26Bastoni Elizabeth A.directorAward / grant5,6345,634Form 4
2026-05-26Buffett Howard W.directorAward / grant5,6345,634Form 4
2026-05-26Worthen Britton M.officerAward / grant27,88827,888Form 4
2026-05-26Tutino Francesco Vincenzo MariaofficerAward / grant34,99764,235Form 4
2026-05-26Nickolas James AJofficerAward / grant95,863656,757Form 4
2026-05-26Schroeder JayofficerAward / grant23,472105,745Form 4
2026-05-26Linehan KarendirectorAward / grant5,6345,634Form 4
2026-05-13Schroeder JayofficerWithheld for tax1,24640,321Form 4
2026-05-11Nasi AlessandrodirectorWithheld for tax210366,263Form 4
2026-05-11Sorensen Vagn OdirectorWithheld for tax20245,174Form 4
2026-05-11Buffett Howard W.directorWithheld for tax15038,233Form 4
2026-05-11KRAMER RICHARD JdirectorWithheld for tax9310,178Form 4
2026-05-11Tamsons AsadirectorWithheld for tax7213,965Form 4
2026-05-11Linehan KarendirectorWithheld for tax6822,170Form 4
2026-05-11Bastoni Elizabeth A.directorWithheld for tax5010,367Form 4
2026-05-11Linehan KarendirectorOption exercise4,9800Form 4
2026-05-11Buffett Howard W.directorOption exercise4,9800Form 4
2026-05-11Sorensen Vagn OdirectorOption exercise4,9800Form 4
2026-05-11KRAMER RICHARD JdirectorOption exercise4,9800Form 4
2026-05-11Bastoni Elizabeth A.directorOption exercise4,9800Form 4
2026-05-11Nasi AlessandrodirectorOption exercise4,9800Form 4
2026-05-11Tamsons AsadirectorOption exercise4,9800Form 4
2026-05-11Tamsons AsadirectorOption exercise4,98014,037Form 4
2026-05-11Nasi AlessandrodirectorOption exercise4,980366,473Form 4
2026-05-11KRAMER RICHARD JdirectorOption exercise4,98010,271Form 4
2026-05-11Buffett Howard W.directorOption exercise4,98038,383Form 4
2026-05-11Tamsons AsadirectorOption exercise4,98014,037Form 4
2026-05-11Sorensen Vagn OdirectorOption exercise4,98045,376Form 4
2026-05-11Linehan KarendirectorOption exercise4,98022,238Form 4
2026-05-11Bastoni Elizabeth A.directorOption exercise4,98010,417Form 4
2026-05-11Linehan KarendirectorOption exercise4,98022,238Form 4
2026-05-11Buffett Howard W.directorOption exercise4,98038,383Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.