CNCCentene Corp.Healthcare · Medical - Healthcare Plansas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $66.01 · now $66.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CNC has typically landed between $57.26 and $76.46 — a range of −13.3% to +15.8% from the issuance price $66.01.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($66.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CNC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $66.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$57.26worst · -13.3%$76.46best · +15.8%
  • now $66.01 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $66.58 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $62.59–$70.57
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $57.26–$76.46
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-07-01−54.0%−54.9%+0.0%
2025-06-27−52.7%−52.7%+4.9%
2025-06-30−52.5%−53.0%+4.4%
3 best
2026-03-30+69.7%+0.0%+69.7%
2026-03-31+64.0%+0.0%+64.9%
2026-04-13+58.3%−0.6%+58.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$31.3B
market cap
$-13.14
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$194.8B
'20'25
Net income−$6.7B
'20'25
Free cash flow$4.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-3.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-33.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.94
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $66.01$32.56$125.94
  • DCF (intrinsic)$119.50
  • Analyst target · range $39.00–$80.00$63.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$66.01

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+2.4%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.5%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.7%
n=19
Apr
58%
+4.8%
n=19
May
53%
+3.9%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.4%
n=19
Jul
42%
+0.4%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.5%
n=19
Sep
42%
+0.9%
n=19
Oct
50%
+1.3%
n=18
Nov
78%
+5.0%
n=18
Dec
61%
+2.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$69$262026-08-26: 1 insider sale, $3.8M — KOSTER CHRISTOPHER2026-08-18: 1 insider sale, $3.1M — KOSTER CHRISTOPHER2026-06-10: 1 insider sale, $5.2M — Burdick Kenneth A2025-12-04: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Burdick Kenneth A2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Burdick Kenneth A2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $490K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $2.6M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $5.2M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $6.9M↑ buys↓ salesofficer KOSTER CHRISTOPHER — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer KOSTER CHRISTOPHER — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Burdick Kenneth A — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Burdick Kenneth A — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Burdick Kenneth A — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-26KOSTER CHRISTOPHERofficerSale56,500 @ $66.90$3.8M−18.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open248,854Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18KOSTER CHRISTOPHERofficerSale47,603 @ $65.36$3.1M−13.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open305,354Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-10Burdick Kenneth AdirectorSale80,000 @ $64.55$5.2M−28.9% of holding+1.0%not yet — horizon still open197,086Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-04Burdick Kenneth AdirectorSale32,796 @ $39.00$1.3M−10.7% of holding+16.4%+58.8%272,365Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-03Burdick Kenneth AdirectorSale33,211 @ $39.04$1.3M−9.8% of holding+14.3%+52.1%305,161Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08LONDON SARAHdirectorPurchase19,230 @ $25.50$490K+2.3% of holding+19.3%+39.1%845,275Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-28Samuels Theodore R. IIdirectorPurchase9,000 @ $27.62$249K+39.1% of holding+5.4%+44.8%32,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-18Greco ThomasdirectorPurchase17,000 @ $59.75$1.0M+736.2% of holding+3.0%−13.6%19,309Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-16COUGHLIN CHRISTOPHER JdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $59.44$594K+37.9% of holding+6.4%−6.9%36,358Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-16Dallas H JamesdirectorPurchase1,693 @ $59.01$100Kownership Δ n/a+6.4%−6.9%1,693Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-16BLUME JESSICA L.directorPurchase250 @ $59.48$15Kownership Δ n/a+6.4%−6.9%250Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-13Samuels Theodore R. IIdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $58.86$294K+27.8% of holding+7.6%−6.7%23,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

102 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15PIENKOS THEODORE JofficerWithheld for tax1,09228,751Form 4
2026-07-28DIAZ PAUL JdirectorAward / grant2,7712,771Form 4
2026-07-17Tyler Lauren MdirectorAward / grant3,1553,216Form 4
2026-06-30Samuels Theodore R. IIdirectorAward / grant46525,213Form 4
2026-06-30TANJI KENNETHdirectorAward / grant58112,490Form 4
2026-06-30Tyler Lauren MdirectorAward / grant6161Form 4
2026-06-30EPPINGER FREDERICK HdirectorAward / grant833369,538Form 4
2026-06-30COUGHLIN CHRISTOPHER JdirectorAward / grant56218,711Form 4
2026-06-15SMITH SUSAN RAYEofficerWithheld for tax483212,237Form 4
2026-05-29Carson Michael AofficerDiscretionary6040Form 4
2026-05-22Carson Michael AofficerAward / grant48604Form 4
2026-05-12Dallas H JamesdirectorAward / grant3,99247,874Form 4
2026-05-12EPPINGER FREDERICK HdirectorAward / grant6,654368,705Form 4
2026-05-12TANJI KENNETHdirectorAward / grant3,99211,909Form 4
2026-05-12BLUME JESSICA L.directorAward / grant3,99232,357Form 4
2026-05-12FORD MONTE EdirectorAward / grant3,99214,827Form 4
2026-05-12Burdick Kenneth AdirectorAward / grant3,992277,086Form 4
2026-05-12COUGHLIN CHRISTOPHER JdirectorAward / grant3,99218,149Form 4
2026-05-12Samuels Theodore R. IIdirectorAward / grant3,99224,748Form 4
2026-04-15MCNALLY TANYA MofficerWithheld for tax964127,258Form 4
2026-03-31Samuels Theodore R. IIdirectorAward / grant94320,756Form 4
2026-03-31COUGHLIN CHRISTOPHER JdirectorAward / grant1,14014,157Form 4
2026-03-31EPPINGER FREDERICK HdirectorAward / grant1,690362,051Form 4
2026-03-31TANJI KENNETHdirectorAward / grant1,1797,917Form 4
2026-03-15LONDON SARAHdirectorWithheld for tax36,0611,188,831Form 4
2026-03-15Asher Andrew LynnofficerWithheld for tax15,241747,989Form 4
2026-03-15KOSTER CHRISTOPHERofficerWithheld for tax9,087352,836Form 4
2026-03-15CASSO KATIEofficerWithheld for tax3,359109,776Form 4
2026-03-15SMITH SUSAN RAYEofficerWithheld for tax2,918212,720Form 4
2026-03-15MCNALLY TANYA MofficerWithheld for tax2,785128,222Form 4
2026-01-26KOSTER CHRISTOPHERofficerAward / grant126,925388,862Form 4
2026-01-26LONDON SARAHdirectorAward / grant520,7201,365,995Form 4
2026-01-26Asher Andrew LynnofficerAward / grant173,573831,215Form 4
2026-01-26CASSO KATIEofficerAward / grant26,036122,371Form 4
2026-01-26MCNALLY TANYA MofficerAward / grant74,311133,080Form 4
2026-01-26SMITH SUSAN RAYEofficerAward / grant112,823225,289Form 4
2026-01-15MCNALLY TANYA MofficerWithheld for tax72558,769Form 4
2025-12-31Burdick Kenneth AdirectorAward / grant729273,094Form 4
2025-12-31TANJI KENNETHdirectorAward / grant7906,738Form 4
2025-12-31EPPINGER FREDERICK HdirectorAward / grant608360,361Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132025-04-14$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-01-132025-08-08$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122024-10-29$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-09-122025-08-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-09-032025-08-07$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-09-032025-08-08$1–15K
Tim MooreHousesale2025-09-032025-08-18$100–250K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-08-052025-07-22$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.