CNACNA Financial Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $48.08 · now $48.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CNA has typically landed between $44.34 and $52.40 — a range of −7.8% to +9.0% from the issuance price $48.08.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($48.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CNA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $48.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$44.34worst · -7.8%$52.4best · +9.0%
  • now $48.08 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $48.64 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $46.97–$50.31
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $44.34–$52.4
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−56.0%−56.0%+0.0%
2008-09-11−48.9%−48.9%+6.2%
2008-10-22−47.7%−47.7%+0.9%
3 best
2009-04-08+77.6%+0.0%+77.6%
2008-11-20+62.4%+0.0%+64.2%
2009-03-11+59.4%+0.0%+59.4%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
−0.8%
n=18
Feb
68%
+1.3%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.0%
n=19
Apr
63%
+2.9%
n=19
May
42%
+0.1%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.2%
n=19
Jul
68%
+1.9%
n=19
Aug
47%
+1.5%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.0%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.3%
n=18
Nov
67%
+1.8%
n=18
Dec
61%
+2.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$53$412026-08-04: 2 insider sales, $1.6M — Franzetti Daniel Paul, James Mark Steven2026-03-19: 1 insider sale, $151K — Neuenschwander Jeffrey John2026-01-02: 1 insider sale, $298K — Robusto Dino2025-12-01: 1 insider sale, $293K — Robusto Dino2025-11-03: 1 insider sale, $283K — Robusto Dino2025-10-01: 1 insider sale, $289K — Robusto Dino2025-09-04: 1 insider sale, $410K — LINDQUIST SCOTT R2025-09-03: 1 insider sale, $488K — LINDQUIST SCOTT R2025-09-02: 1 insider sale, $306K — Robusto Dino2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $281K2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $1.2M2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $289K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $283K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $293K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $298K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $151K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.6M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Franzetti Daniel Paul — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed same dayofficer James Mark Steven — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Neuenschwander Jeffrey John — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Robusto Dino — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Robusto Dino — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed same daydirector Robusto Dino — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed same daydirector Robusto Dino — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed same dayofficer LINDQUIST SCOTT R — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer LINDQUIST SCOTT R — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Robusto Dino — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Franzetti Daniel PaulofficerSale22,656 @ $53.09$1.2M−25.0% of holding−10.4%not yet — horizon still open68,032Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-04James Mark StevenofficerSale8,273 @ $53.15$440K−23.8% of holding−10.4%not yet — horizon still open26,446Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-19Neuenschwander Jeffrey JohnofficerSale3,287 @ $45.97$151K−31.1% of holding−2.0%not yet — horizon still open7,277Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-02Robusto DinodirectorSale6,250 @ $47.62$298K−0.9% of holding+3.0%+7.5%661,838Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-01Robusto DinodirectorSale6,250 @ $46.92$293K−0.9% of holding+2.8%−15.0%668,088Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-03Robusto DinodirectorSale6,250 @ $45.28$283K−0.9% of holding+5.4%−3.2%674,338Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-01Robusto DinodirectorSale6,250 @ $46.25$289K−0.9% of holding−4.6%+8.2%680,588Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-04LINDQUIST SCOTT RofficerSale8,380 @ $48.98$410K−9.3% of holding−8.6%+0.4%81,487Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-03LINDQUIST SCOTT RofficerSale10,000 @ $48.81$488K−10.0% of holding−9.9%−1.4%89,867Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-02Robusto DinodirectorSale6,250 @ $49.00$306K−0.9% of holding−10.8%−1.3%686,838Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04Robusto DinodirectorSale6,250 @ $45.00$281K−0.9% of holding+6.2%−1.0%693,088Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-01Robusto DinodirectorSale6,250 @ $46.40$290K−0.9% of holding−7.0%−6.8%699,338Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-02Robusto DinodirectorSale6,250 @ $47.63$298K−0.9% of holding−11.0%−18.0%705,588Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-20James Mark StevenofficerSale5,015 @ $48.35$242K−15.6% of holding−6.5%−14.1%27,059Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-01Robusto DinodirectorSale6,250 @ $47.61$298K−0.9% of holding−3.3%−26.6%711,838Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-01Robusto DinodirectorSale6,250 @ $51.06$319K−0.9% of holding−6.3%−27.7%718,088Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17Franzetti Daniel PaulofficerSale12,991 @ $49.06$637K−14.7% of holding+2.8%−22.0%75,612Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17Robusto DinodirectorSale6,250 @ $48.86$305K−0.9% of holding+2.8%−22.0%720,442Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13Robusto DinodirectorPurchase3,168 @ $47.63$151K+0.4% of holding+1.7%−19.2%723,610Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-03-13Robusto DinodirectorPurchase729 @ $47.63$35K+0.1% of holding+1.7%−19.2%724,338Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

41 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-03-15Worman DouglasdirectorWithheld for tax37,062239,749Form 4
2026-03-15LINDQUIST SCOTT RofficerWithheld for tax18,603100,116Form 4
2026-03-15Franzetti Daniel PaulofficerWithheld for tax18,01890,688Form 4
2026-03-15Hopper Robert JosephofficerWithheld for tax12,75885,808Form 4
2026-03-15Aguinaga Elizabeth AnnofficerWithheld for tax11,51268,181Form 4
2026-03-15Possell Jane ElizabethofficerWithheld for tax7,00657,816Form 4
2026-03-15James Mark StevenofficerWithheld for tax6,79134,719Form 4
2026-03-15Smith Amy MarieofficerWithheld for tax1,78724,357Form 4
2026-03-15Neuenschwander Jeffrey JohnofficerWithheld for tax1,36110,564Form 4
2026-03-15Hopper Robert JosephofficerAward / grant19,88898,566Form 4
2026-03-15Possell Jane ElizabethofficerAward / grant19,88864,822Form 4
2026-03-15Neuenschwander Jeffrey JohnofficerAward / grant3,54011,925Form 4
2026-03-15Worman DouglasdirectorAward / grant106,075276,811Form 4
2026-03-15Franzetti Daniel PaulofficerAward / grant33,094108,706Form 4
2026-03-15LINDQUIST SCOTT RofficerAward / grant37,232118,719Form 4
2026-03-15Aguinaga Elizabeth AnnofficerAward / grant19,88879,693Form 4
2026-03-15Smith Amy MarieofficerAward / grant4,77326,144Form 4
2026-03-15James Mark StevenofficerAward / grant14,45141,510Form 4
2025-11-12Smith Amy MarieofficerGift90021,371Form 4
2025-07-31Stone Susan AnnofficerWithheld for tax13,61455,165Form 4
2025-07-31Stone Susan AnnofficerWithheld for tax10,83444,331Form 4
2025-03-15Robusto DinodirectorWithheld for tax67,296726,692Form 4
2025-03-15Worman DouglasdirectorWithheld for tax29,424170,736Form 4
2025-03-15LINDQUIST SCOTT RofficerWithheld for tax14,27299,867Form 4
2025-03-15Stone Susan AnnofficerWithheld for tax10,80868,779Form 4
2025-03-15Franzetti Daniel PaulofficerWithheld for tax10,33188,603Form 4
2025-03-15Hopper Robert JosephofficerWithheld for tax9,67578,678Form 4
2025-03-15Aguinaga Elizabeth AnnofficerWithheld for tax8,90159,805Form 4
2025-03-15Possell Jane ElizabethofficerWithheld for tax3,41744,934Form 4
2025-03-15James Mark StevenofficerWithheld for tax2,83832,074Form 4
2025-03-15Smith Amy MarieofficerWithheld for tax1,36622,271Form 4
2025-03-15Worman DouglasdirectorAward / grant66,383200,160Form 4
2025-03-15Franzetti Daniel PaulofficerAward / grant34,93898,934Form 4
2025-03-15Smith Amy MarieofficerAward / grant4,94923,637Form 4
2025-03-15Stone Susan AnnofficerAward / grant24,45679,587Form 4
2025-03-15James Mark StevenofficerAward / grant11,99534,912Form 4
2025-03-15Robusto DinodirectorAward / grant128,109793,988Form 4
2025-03-15Possell Jane ElizabethofficerAward / grant18,34248,351Form 4
2025-03-15Hopper Robert JosephofficerAward / grant20,96288,353Form 4
2025-03-15Aguinaga Elizabeth AnnofficerAward / grant20,96268,706Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Marie NewmanHousepurchase2021-09-082021-08-02$1–15K
Marie NewmanHousepurchase2021-09-082021-08-02$1–15K
Marie NewmanHousepurchase2021-09-082021-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2020-06-172020-05-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-05-132020-04-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2020-02-102020-01-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-04-112019-03-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-11-092018-10-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2018-08-102018-07-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-06-082018-05-08$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.