CMTGClaros Mortgage Trust, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.44 · now $1.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CMTG has typically landed between $1.10 and $1.73 — a range of −23.6% to +20.2% from the issuance price $1.44.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,200 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-11-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CMTG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.1worst · -23.6%$1.73best · +20.2%
  • now $1.44 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.4 (-2.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.27–$1.54
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.1–$1.73
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,200 windows spanning 2021-11-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-03-20−45.8%−45.8%+0.0%
2025-03-18−44.8%−44.8%+1.0%
2025-03-21−43.1%−45.5%+0.0%
3 best
2025-03-03+65.6%+0.0%+87.8%
2025-02-27+63.3%−3.5%+81.2%
2025-02-28+60.1%−5.2%+78.1%

1,200 overlapping windows · 2021-11-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
−5.9%
n=5
Feb
0%
−15.9%
n=5
Mar
60%
+10.3%
n=5
Apr
60%
−6.1%
n=5
May
40%
−1.9%
n=5
Jun
60%
+2.0%
n=5
Jul
60%
+3.4%
n=5
Aug
20%
−2.9%
n=5
Sep
0%
−10.9%
n=5
Oct
25%
+2.7%
n=4
Nov
100%
+9.3%
n=4
Dec
20%
−8.5%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$4$12026-09-04: 1 insider purchase, $33K — Mack Richard2026-09-03: 1 insider purchase, $318K — Mack Richard2026-08-06: 1 insider purchase, $43K — McGillis Mike2026-03-02: 1 insider purchase, $47K — McGillis Mike2026-02-27: 1 insider purchase, $120K — Mack Richard2026-02-24: 1 insider purchase, $57K — WALTER W EDWARD2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $177K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $47K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $43K2026-09: 2 open-market purchases, $351K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Mack Richard — Purchase on 2026-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Mack Richard — Purchase on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradedirector McGillis Mike — Purchase on 2026-08-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector McGillis Mike — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mack Richard — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradedirector WALTER W EDWARD — Purchase on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04Mack RicharddirectorPurchase20,603 @ $1.59$33K+0.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,110,911Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-03Mack RicharddirectorPurchase200,000 @ $1.59$318K+6.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,090,308Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-08-06McGillis MikedirectorPurchase25,000 @ $1.71$43K+3.5% of holding−7.6%not yet — horizon still open749,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-02McGillis MikedirectorPurchase20,000 @ $2.34$47K+3.4% of holding+8.0%−43.5%603,007Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27Mack RicharddirectorPurchase50,000 @ $2.41$120K+1.9% of holding+7.2%−45.0%2,717,330Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-24WALTER W EDWARDdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $2.28$57K+357.1% of holding+1.1%−35.7%32,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-13Mack RicharddirectorPurchase10,000 @ $3.66$37K+0.4% of holding−33.1%−15.2%2,599,981Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-12Mack RicharddirectorPurchase25,000 @ $3.38$85K+1.0% of holding−21.9%−7.0%2,589,981Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12McGillis MikedirectorPurchase24,115 @ $3.30$80K+5.3% of holding−21.9%−7.0%475,945Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-12Richman Steven LeonarddirectorPurchase5,000 @ $3.40$17K+37.0% of holding−21.9%−7.0%18,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10Mack RicharddirectorPurchase115,000 @ $3.19$367K+4.7% of holding−11.1%+0.9%2,564,981Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

46 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01Richman Steven LeonarddirectorAward / grant8,74466,908Form 4
2026-06-03Haggerty MarydirectorAward / grant53,418130,248Form 4
2026-06-03Olsen DenisedirectorAward / grant53,41853,418Form 4
2026-06-03WALTER W EDWARDdirectorAward / grant53,41853,418Form 4
2026-06-03Richman Steven LeonarddirectorAward / grant53,41853,418Form 4
2026-06-03Liebman PameladirectorAward / grant53,418134,048Form 4
2026-06-03TESE VINCENTdirectorAward / grant9,58094,214Form 4
2026-06-03CEPHAS DERRICK DdirectorAward / grant53,41853,418Form 4
2026-05-21Mack RicharddirectorWithheld for tax162,0182,890,308Form 4
2026-05-21Garg PriyankaofficerWithheld for tax76,548562,718Form 4
2026-05-21McGillis MikedirectorWithheld for tax46,170724,000Form 4
2026-05-21Siegel Jeffrey DofficerWithheld for tax33,093311,382Form 4
2026-04-01Richman Steven LeonarddirectorAward / grant9,15958,164Form 4
2026-04-01TESE VINCENTdirectorAward / grant13,73984,634Form 4
2026-03-20Mack RicharddirectorAward / grant334,9963,052,326Form 4
2026-03-20Garg PriyankaofficerAward / grant217,279639,266Form 4
2026-03-20McGillis MikedirectorAward / grant167,163770,170Form 4
2026-03-20Siegel Jeffrey DofficerAward / grant111,800344,475Form 4
2026-01-02TESE VINCENTdirectorAward / grant10,31570,895Form 4
2026-01-02Richman Steven LeonarddirectorAward / grant6,87749,005Form 4
2025-10-01TESE VINCENTdirectorAward / grant9,34760,580Form 4
2025-10-01Richman Steven LeonarddirectorAward / grant6,23142,128Form 4
2025-08-25Mack RicharddirectorWithheld for tax139,3642,667,330Form 4
2025-08-25McGillis MikedirectorWithheld for tax25,150583,007Form 4
2025-08-25Garg PriyankaofficerWithheld for tax24,302421,987Form 4
2025-08-25Siegel Jeffrey DofficerWithheld for tax11,991232,675Form 4
2025-07-01TESE VINCENTdirectorAward / grant10,80551,233Form 4
2025-07-01Richman Steven LeonarddirectorAward / grant7,20335,897Form 4
2025-06-04TESE VINCENTdirectorAward / grant46,12546,125Form 4
2025-06-04Haggerty MarydirectorAward / grant46,12576,830Form 4
2025-06-04CEPHAS DERRICK DdirectorAward / grant46,12546,125Form 4
2025-06-04Richman Steven LeonarddirectorAward / grant46,12546,125Form 4
2025-06-04WALTER W EDWARDdirectorAward / grant46,12546,125Form 4
2025-06-04Liebman PameladirectorAward / grant46,12580,630Form 4
2025-05-21Mack RicharddirectorWithheld for tax104,9122,806,694Form 4
2025-05-21Garg PriyankaofficerWithheld for tax40,506446,289Form 4
2025-05-21McGillis MikedirectorWithheld for tax23,288608,157Form 4
2025-05-21Siegel Jeffrey DofficerWithheld for tax13,568244,666Form 4
2025-04-27Garg PriyankaofficerAward / grant195,000486,795Form 4
2025-04-27Siegel Jeffrey DofficerAward / grant104,000258,234Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.