CMSCMS Energy CorporationUtilities · Regulated Electricas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $65.99 · now $65.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CMS has typically landed between $61.38 and $71.33 — a range of −7.0% to +8.1% from the issuance price $65.99.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($65.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CMS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $65.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$61.38worst · -7.0%$71.33best · +8.1%
  • now $65.99 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $66.38 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $64.14–$68.63
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $61.38–$71.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-11−33.2%−33.2%+1.5%
2008-09-10−32.4%−32.4%+1.9%
2020-02-21−29.1%−29.1%+0.0%
3 best
2008-12-23+29.9%−1.9%+29.9%
2008-12-24+29.9%+0.0%+32.5%
2008-12-26+26.5%+0.0%+28.2%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$23.1B
market cap
$3.65
EPS (TTM)
20.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$8.5B
'20'25
Net income$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow−$1.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.07
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $65.99$64.39$87.60
  • DCF (intrinsic)$69.91
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$82.40
  • Analyst target · range $77.00–$86.00$81.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$65.99

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+2.6%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.1%
n=19
Mar
79%
+3.3%
n=19
Apr
68%
+1.5%
n=19
May
53%
−0.3%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.1%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.4%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.6%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.2%
n=19
Oct
78%
+1.1%
n=18
Nov
56%
+1.2%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$80$662026-07-31: 1 insider purchase, $14K — MADDIPATI SRIKANTH2026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $223K — Hofmeister Brandon J.2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $137K — McIntosh Scott B2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $313K — Hofmeister Brandon J.2026-02-25: 1 insider purchase, $153K — Leopold Diane2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — RUSSELL JOHN G2025-11-03: 2 insider sales, $290K — Hofmeister Brandon J. …2025-09-05: 1 insider sale, $158K — Snyder Lauren Y2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $147K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $158K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $290K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $153K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $1.4M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $137K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $223K2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $14K↑ buys↓ salesofficer MADDIPATI SRIKANTH — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Hofmeister Brandon J. — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer McIntosh Scott B — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hofmeister Brandon J. — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Leopold Diane — Purchase on 2026-02-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RUSSELL JOHN G — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Hofmeister Brandon J. — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hofmeister Brandon J. — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Snyder Lauren Y — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-31MADDIPATI SRIKANTHofficerPurchase200 @ $72.45$14K+0.6% of holding−8.1%not yet — horizon still open34,895Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-26Hofmeister Brandon J.officerSale3,000 @ $74.31$223K−4.3% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open67,111Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02McIntosh Scott BofficerSale1,750 @ $78.20$137K−6.7% of holding+4.3%−24.5%24,223Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-27Hofmeister Brandon J.officerSale4,000 @ $78.23$313K−5.4% of holding+6.5%−24.7%70,670Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-25Leopold DianedirectorPurchase2,000 @ $76.70$153K+260.1% of holding+6.3%−20.0%2,769Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-20RUSSELL JOHN GdirectorSale14,914 @ $75.75$1.1M−10.2% of holding+3.0%−21.0%131,568Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-03Hofmeister Brandon J.officerSale3,777 @ $72.47$274K−5.6% of holding+0.3%−4.3%64,259Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-03Hofmeister Brandon J.officerSale223 @ $72.48$16K−0.3% of holding+0.3%−4.3%64,490Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-05Snyder Lauren YofficerSale2,220 @ $71.26$158K−14.1% of holding−1.7%+4.2%13,512Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-08Hofmeister Brandon J.officerSale2,000 @ $73.62$147K−2.9% of holding−5.6%−9.7%68,036Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-06Hofmeister Brandon J.officerSale2,198 @ $73.61$162K−3.1% of holding−10.9%−20.6%69,571Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Hofmeister Brandon J.officerSale2,000 @ $73.77$148K−2.7% of holding+5.1%−12.8%71,931Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Wright LauradirectorSale1,803 @ $69.84$126K−4.4% of holding+12.8%+0.9%38,790Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Wright LauradirectorSale597 @ $69.84$42K−1.4% of holding+12.8%+0.9%40,693Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Wright LauradirectorSale100 @ $69.84$7K−0.2% of holding+12.8%+0.9%40,593Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-13McIntosh Scott BofficerSale6,700 @ $69.76$467K−23.6% of holding+12.7%−0.2%21,643Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-19RUSSELL JOHN GdirectorSale28,750 @ $65.85$1.9M−16.6% of holding−4.2%+1.3%144,059Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-13Hofmeister Brandon J.officerSale2,000 @ $67.22$134K−3.1% of holding+2.8%+4.2%63,197Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

98 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-15MADDIPATI SRIKANTHofficerAward / grant10,18434,695Form 4
2026-05-08Soto MyrnadirectorAward / grant2,41141,023Form 4
2026-05-08Wright LauradirectorAward / grant2,41143,623Form 4
2026-05-08TANSKI RONALD JdirectorAward / grant2,41120,903Form 4
2026-05-08Leopold DianedirectorAward / grant2,4115,180Form 4
2026-05-08Butler Deborah HdirectorAward / grant2,41139,850Form 4
2026-05-08IZZO RALPHdirectorAward / grant2,41110,779Form 4
2026-05-08Keyes Richard PatrickdirectorAward / grant2,4113,180Form 4
2026-05-08RUSSELL JOHN GdirectorAward / grant2,411134,068Form 4
2026-05-08SHANK SUZANNE F.directorAward / grant2,41123,680Form 4
2026-05-08Sznewajs John GdirectorAward / grant2,41137,594Form 4
2026-03-26Rochow Garrick JdirectorWithheld for tax25,833637,918Form 4
2026-03-26Hayes Rejji PdirectorWithheld for tax8,290268,535Form 4
2026-03-26Johnson Shaun MofficerWithheld for tax4,311109,325Form 4
2026-03-26Hofmeister Brandon J.officerWithheld for tax3,75970,111Form 4
2026-03-26Berry Tonya LofficerWithheld for tax2,64270,105Form 4
2026-03-26McIntosh Scott BofficerWithheld for tax1,19724,054Form 4
2026-03-26Snyder Lauren YofficerWithheld for tax57416,596Form 4
2026-03-26Hofmeister Brandon J.officerAward / grant2,86373,870Form 4
2026-03-26Hayes Rejji PdirectorAward / grant6,316276,825Form 4
2026-03-26Johnson Shaun MofficerAward / grant3,284113,636Form 4
2026-03-26Berry Tonya LofficerAward / grant2,02172,747Form 4
2026-03-26Snyder Lauren YofficerAward / grant67417,170Form 4
2026-03-26Rochow Garrick JdirectorAward / grant19,681663,751Form 4
2026-03-26McIntosh Scott BofficerAward / grant1,02825,251Form 4
2026-02-27Hofmeister Brandon J.officerGift270,953Form 4
2026-02-27Hofmeister Brandon J.officerGift23Form 4
2026-02-20Keyes Richard PatrickdirectorAward / grant769769Form 4
2026-02-20Leopold DianedirectorAward / grant769769Form 4
2026-01-29Berry Tonya LofficerAward / grant20,45170,387Form 4
2026-01-29Hayes Rejji PdirectorAward / grant33,144269,725Form 4
2026-01-29Thomas ShannonofficerAward / grant7,7577,757Form 4
2026-01-29Snyder Lauren YofficerAward / grant3,52616,426Form 4
2026-01-29Johnson Shaun MofficerAward / grant19,747109,894Form 4
2026-01-29McIntosh Scott BofficerAward / grant5,00825,850Form 4
2026-01-29Hofmeister Brandon J.officerAward / grant13,75274,670Form 4
2026-01-29Rochow Garrick JdirectorAward / grant123,413641,865Form 4
2026-01-26Rochow Garrick JdirectorWithheld for tax28,390518,452Form 4
2026-01-26Hayes Rejji PdirectorWithheld for tax9,174236,581Form 4
2026-01-26Johnson Shaun MofficerWithheld for tax4,82190,147Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-09$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-13$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-09-112025-08-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-07-082024-06-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-07-082024-06-20$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-07-112023-06-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-06-122023-05-31$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-05-082023-04-25$1–15K
Shelley Moore CapitoSenatepurchase2022-07-152022-06-01$1–15K
Mr. Peter MeijerHousesale2021-03-162021-02-16$1–15K
Mr. Peter MeijerHousesale2021-02-232021-01-28$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.