CMPSCOMPASS Pathways plcHealthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.80 · now $13.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CMPS has typically landed between $9.75 and $19.38 — a range of −29.4% to +40.4% from the issuance price $13.80.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,484 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-09-182026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CMPS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$9.75worst · -29.4%$19.38best · +40.4%
  • now $13.8 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.52 (-2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.25$15.8
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.75$19.38
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,484 windows spanning 2020-09-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-04-11−46.0%−46.0%+4.9%
2025-05-21−45.9%−45.9%+10.6%
2022-04-07−43.5%−43.5%+1.0%
3 best
2025-06-23+96.6%+0.0%+96.6%
2026-04-14+90.6%+0.0%+90.6%
2023-12-06+79.2%+0.0%+79.2%

1,484 overlapping windows · 2020-09-182026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+5.4%
n=6
Feb
33%
−6.7%
n=6
Mar
17%
−12.5%
n=6
Apr
50%
+9.3%
n=6
May
50%
+3.7%
n=6
Jun
67%
−0.1%
n=6
Jul
67%
+18.6%
n=6
Aug
50%
+2.7%
n=6
Sep
33%
−8.1%
n=6
Oct
33%
−0.9%
n=6
Nov
33%
+3.5%
n=6
Dec
33%
−1.2%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$15$4↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

38 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Nath KabirdirectorWithheld for tax5,962361,028Form 4
2026-05-27JONAS JEFFREY MdirectorAward / grant21,11021,110Form 4
2026-05-27SANTINI GINOdirectorAward / grant30,15830,158Form 4
2026-05-27Riley Wayne JosephdirectorAward / grant21,11021,110Form 4
2026-05-27Norton David YdirectorAward / grant21,11021,110Form 4
2026-05-27Gover Justin D.directorAward / grant21,11021,110Form 4
2026-05-27Karydas DaphnedirectorAward / grant21,11021,110Form 4
2026-05-27Tregoning KathleendirectorAward / grant41,11941,119Form 4
2026-05-27McQuade RobertdirectorAward / grant21,11021,110Form 4
2026-03-26Nath KabirdirectorAward / grant367,815367,815Form 4
2026-03-26Goodwin GuyofficerAward / grant115,600115,600Form 4
2026-03-26Loxam TeridirectorAward / grant75,000152,002Form 4
2026-03-26Loxam TeridirectorAward / grant157,635157,635Form 4
2026-03-26Nath KabirdirectorAward / grant175,000366,990Form 4
2026-03-26Goodwin GuyofficerAward / grant55,00055,000Form 4
2026-03-11Nath KabirdirectorWithheld for tax13,131191,990Form 4
2026-03-11Loxam TeridirectorWithheld for tax1,78177,002Form 4
2026-03-02Loxam TeridirectorWithheld for tax4,46778,783Form 4
2026-02-02Nath KabirdirectorWithheld for tax16,181205,121Form 4
2025-10-29JONAS JEFFREY MdirectorAward / grant52,00052,000Form 4
2025-08-01Nath KabirdirectorWithheld for tax6,366221,302Form 4
2025-07-29Gover Justin D.directorAward / grant52,00052,000Form 4
2025-06-12Lonngren ThomasdirectorAward / grant26,00026,000Form 4
2025-06-12McGoldrick LindadirectorAward / grant26,00026,000Form 4
2025-06-12Riley Wayne JosephdirectorAward / grant26,00026,000Form 4
2025-06-12SANTINI GINOdirectorAward / grant39,00039,000Form 4
2025-06-12McQuade RobertdirectorAward / grant26,00026,000Form 4
2025-06-12Norton David YdirectorAward / grant26,00026,000Form 4
2025-06-12Jenkins AnnalisadirectorAward / grant26,00026,000Form 4
2025-06-12Karydas DaphnedirectorAward / grant26,00026,000Form 4
2025-03-11Nath KabirdirectorAward / grant92,000227,668Form 4
2025-03-11Nath KabirdirectorAward / grant275,000275,000Form 4
2025-03-11Goodwin GuyofficerAward / grant32,00032,000Form 4
2025-03-11Goodwin GuyofficerAward / grant63,00063,000Form 4
2025-03-11Loxam TeridirectorAward / grant25,00083,250Form 4
2025-03-11Loxam TeridirectorAward / grant76,00076,000Form 4
2025-03-03Loxam TeridirectorWithheld for tax4,46858,250Form 4
2025-02-03Nath KabirdirectorWithheld for tax15,516135,668Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.