CMPCompass Minerals International, Inc.Basic Materials · Industrial Materialsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.87 · now $23.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CMP has typically landed between $18.24 and $28.96 — a range of −23.6% to +21.3% from the issuance price $23.87.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CMP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$18.24worst · -23.6%$28.96best · +21.3%
  • now $23.87 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $23.63 (-1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $21.51–$25.75
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.24–$28.96
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−39.2%−39.2%+0.0%
2020-02-11−38.1%−38.1%+0.0%
2024-03-01−37.4%−41.5%+0.0%
3 best
2025-04-08+91.3%+0.0%+91.3%
2025-04-09+90.0%+0.0%+90.0%
2025-04-10+89.7%+0.0%+89.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+3.1%
n=20
Feb
60%
+1.2%
n=20
Mar
55%
−2.9%
n=20
Apr
65%
+5.0%
n=20
May
55%
+2.7%
n=20
Jun
55%
−1.9%
n=20
Jul
45%
+0.6%
n=20
Aug
40%
−3.2%
n=20
Sep
45%
+1.3%
n=20
Oct
70%
+0.4%
n=20
Nov
75%
+3.4%
n=20
Dec
55%
−0.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$34$17↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-03-26Reece Joseph EdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $9.68$48K+31.3% of holding+32.6%+78.7%21,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

133 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Tills AmyofficerWithheld for tax2,1425,156Form 4
2026-09-11Tills AmyofficerOption exercise7,2987,298Form 4
2026-09-11Tills AmyofficerOption exercise7,2987,297Form 4
2026-07-28Ward AshleyofficerWithheld for tax2,4437,725Form 4
2026-07-28Ward AshleyofficerOption exercise8,3330Form 4
2026-07-28Ward AshleyofficerOption exercise8,33310,168Form 4
2026-06-30DEALY RICHARD PdirectorAward / grant94445,760Form 4
2026-06-30Safran DaviddirectorAward / grant8042,056Form 4
2026-06-30Reece Joseph EdirectorAward / grant1,20595,670Form 4
2026-06-24Nichols Benjamin S.officerWithheld for tax74715,988Form 4
2026-06-24Nichols Benjamin S.officerOption exercise2,54216,735Form 4
2026-06-24Nichols Benjamin S.officerOption exercise2,5422,542Form 4
2026-05-18Nichols Benjamin S.officerWithheld for tax19514,193Form 4
2026-05-18Nichols Benjamin S.officerOption exercise6850Form 4
2026-05-18Nichols Benjamin S.officerOption exercise68514,388Form 4
2026-05-13Nichols Benjamin S.officerWithheld for tax24713,703Form 4
2026-05-13Nichols Benjamin S.officerOption exercise73713,950Form 4
2026-05-13Nichols Benjamin S.officerOption exercise7371,473Form 4
2026-03-31Reece Joseph EdirectorAward / grant1,81694,465Form 4
2026-03-31DEALY RICHARD PdirectorAward / grant1,25944,816Form 4
2026-03-31Safran DaviddirectorAward / grant1,0711,252Form 4
2026-03-05Safran DaviddirectorAward / grant5,0325,032Form 4
2026-03-05DEALY RICHARD PdirectorAward / grant5,0325,032Form 4
2026-03-05DEALY RICHARD PdirectorOption exercise11,90543,557Form 4
2026-03-05DEALY RICHARD PdirectorOption exercise11,9050Form 4
2026-03-05Merle Denise MdirectorAward / grant5,0325,032Form 4
2026-03-05Ball Russell DaviddirectorAward / grant5,0325,032Form 4
2026-03-05Miller Melissa MdirectorOption exercise11,90543,152Form 4
2026-03-05Miller Melissa MdirectorOption exercise11,9050Form 4
2026-03-05Miller Melissa MdirectorAward / grant5,0325,032Form 4
2026-03-05WALKER LORI AdirectorOption exercise11,90558,715Form 4
2026-03-05WALKER LORI AdirectorOption exercise11,9050Form 4
2026-03-05Reece Joseph EdirectorOption exercise22,32292,649Form 4
2026-03-05Reece Joseph EdirectorOption exercise22,3220Form 4
2026-03-05Reece Joseph EdirectorAward / grant9,4349,434Form 4
2026-03-05Roberts Mark LawrencedirectorAward / grant5,0325,032Form 4
2026-03-05Joyce Gareth TdirectorOption exercise11,90543,118Form 4
2026-03-05Joyce Gareth TdirectorOption exercise11,9050Form 4
2026-03-05Joyce Gareth TdirectorAward / grant5,0325,032Form 4
2026-03-03Merrin Patrick JamesofficerWithheld for tax5,00313,522Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.