Issued 2026-09-16 at $527.50 · now $527.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CMI has typically landed between $471.62 and $600.01 — a range of −10.6% to +13.7% from the issuance price $527.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($527.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CMI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $527.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $527.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $537.6 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $506.7–$568.5
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $471.62–$600.01
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-16 | −47.6% | −47.6% | +2.3% |
| 2008-09-23 | −47.2% | −47.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-24 | −45.8% | −45.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +52.4% | −0.7% | +52.4% |
| 2009-03-06 | +51.9% | +0.0% | +53.5% |
| 2008-04-15 | +51.2% | +0.0% | +51.2% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$299.62
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$590.07
- Analyst target · range $540.00–$901.00$760.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$527.50
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Newsome Earl | director | Sale | 698 @ $572.22 | $399K | −13.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | JACKSON DONALD G | officer | Sale | 480 @ $710.36 | $341K | −5.5% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,316 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | JACKSON DONALD G | officer | Sale | 160 @ $711.61 | $114K | −1.8% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,796 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | JACKSON DONALD G | officer | Sale | 90 @ $712.70 | $64K | −1.0% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,956 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-12 | Bush Jennifer Mary | director | Sale | 1,799 @ $697.29 | $1.3M | −13.1% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,986 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Bush Jennifer Mary | director | Sale | 1,158 @ $695.21 | $805K | −7.7% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,785 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Bush Jennifer Mary | director | Sale | 940 @ $694.13 | $652K | −5.9% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,943 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Bush Jennifer Mary | director | Sale | 583 @ $696.26 | $406K | −3.5% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Bush Jennifer Mary | director | Sale | 480 @ $698.38 | $335K | −2.8% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,466 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Bush Jennifer Mary | director | Sale | 40 @ $699.10 | $28K | −0.2% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,946 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Merritt Brett Michael | officer | Sale | 701 @ $688.75 | $483K | −6.3% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Fetch Bonnie J | director | Sale | 652 @ $700.19 | $457K | −5.3% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,679 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | Fetch Bonnie J | director | Sale | 643 @ $702.66 | $452K | −100.0% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Stoner Nathan R | officer | Sale | 607 @ $694.06 | $421K | −6.0% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,447 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Lamb-Hale Nicole | director | Sale | 1,181 @ $684.35 | $808K | −7.7% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,084 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Boakye Marvin | officer | Sale | 1,112 @ $678.57 | $755K | −11.6% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,508 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Boakye Marvin | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $680.63 | $681K | −9.4% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,620 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Lamb-Hale Nicole | director | Sale | 947 @ $686.48 | $650K | −5.8% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,265 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Boakye Marvin | officer | Sale | 769 @ $679.32 | $522K | −6.8% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,620 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Boakye Marvin | officer | Sale | 360 @ $681.40 | $245K | −3.1% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,389 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Lamb-Hale Nicole | director | Sale | 280 @ $685.63 | $192K | −1.7% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,212 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Boakye Marvin | officer | Sale | 240 @ $682.62 | $164K | −2.0% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,749 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Davis Amy Rochelle | director | Sale | 1,694 @ $559.99 | $949K | −9.7% of holding | +1.6% | −13.9% | 15,807 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Davis Amy Rochelle | director | Sale | 1,049 @ $561.39 | $589K | −5.7% of holding | +1.6% | −13.9% | 17,501 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Davis Amy Rochelle | director | Sale | 631 @ $562.09 | $355K | −3.3% of holding | +1.6% | −13.9% | 18,550 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Davis Amy Rochelle | director | Sale | 400 @ $563.25 | $225K | −2.0% of holding | +1.6% | −13.9% | 19,181 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Davis Amy Rochelle | director | Sale | 160 @ $564.30 | $90K | −0.8% of holding | +1.6% | −13.9% | 19,581 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Davis Amy Rochelle | director | Sale | 120 @ $565.92 | $68K | −0.6% of holding | +1.6% | −13.9% | 19,741 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | JACKSON DONALD G | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $600.13 | $960K | −18.2% of holding | −3.7% | −16.4% | 7,214 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Newsome Earl | director | Sale | 1,083 @ $583.52 | $632K | −24.2% of holding | −1.5% | −14.8% | 3,389 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | Davis Amy Rochelle | director | Sale | 1,033 @ $586.38 | $606K | −5.5% of holding | −1.5% | −14.8% | 17,827 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Davis Amy Rochelle | director | Sale | 591 @ $587.29 | $347K | −3.0% of holding | −1.5% | −14.8% | 18,860 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Newsome Earl | director | Sale | 217 @ $584.43 | $127K | −4.6% of holding | −1.5% | −14.8% | 4,472 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | Davis Amy Rochelle | director | Sale | 160 @ $585.11 | $94K | −0.8% of holding | −1.5% | −14.8% | 19,451 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Davis Amy Rochelle | director | Sale | 80 @ $588.37 | $47K | −0.4% of holding | −1.5% | −14.8% | 19,611 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | MILLER WILLIAM I | director | Sale | 7,066 @ $597.40 | $4.2M | −17.1% of holding | −6.0% | −6.9% | 34,243 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | MILLER WILLIAM I | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $593.50 | $1.2M | −4.6% of holding | −6.0% | −6.9% | 41,309 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | MILLER WILLIAM I | director | Sale | 1,909 @ $595.50 | $1.1M | −4.2% of holding | −6.0% | −6.9% | 43,309 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | MILLER WILLIAM I | director | Sale | 1,810 @ $591.41 | $1.1M | −3.8% of holding | −6.0% | −6.9% | 45,218 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | MILLER WILLIAM I | director | Sale | 1,697 @ $600.11 | $1.0M | −3.5% of holding | −6.0% | −6.9% | 47,028 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | MILLER WILLIAM I | director | Sale | 1,608 @ $604.15 | $971K | −3.2% of holding | −6.0% | −6.9% | 48,725 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | MILLER WILLIAM I | director | Sale | 1,476 @ $596.64 | $881K | −2.8% of holding | −6.0% | −6.9% | 50,333 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | MILLER WILLIAM I | director | Sale | 501 @ $602.26 | $302K | −1.0% of holding | −6.0% | −6.9% | 51,809 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | MILLER WILLIAM I | director | Sale | 40 @ $598.07 | $24K | −0.1% of holding | −6.0% | −6.9% | 52,310 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Bush Jennifer Mary | director | Sale | 2,166 @ $585.06 | $1.3M | −12.5% of holding | −4.3% | −3.0% | 15,130 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Bush Jennifer Mary | director | Sale | 1,340 @ $584.01 | $783K | −7.2% of holding | −4.3% | −3.0% | 17,296 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Bush Jennifer Mary | director | Sale | 764 @ $586.19 | $448K | −3.9% of holding | −4.3% | −3.0% | 18,636 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Merritt Brett Michael | officer | Sale | 1,450 @ $489.32 | $710K | −13.5% of holding | +2.3% | +18.8% | 9,271 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-11 | RUMSEY JENNIFER | director | Sale | 2,880 @ $473.57 | $1.4M | −6.3% of holding | +9.5% | +41.5% | 42,880 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | RUMSEY JENNIFER | director | Sale | 1,690 @ $474.42 | $802K | −3.6% of holding | +9.5% | +41.5% | 45,760 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Smith Mark Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,310 @ $467.37 | $2.5M | −14.4% of holding | +8.2% | +42.1% | 31,582 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Smith Mark Andrew | officer | Sale | 3,902 @ $472.80 | $1.8M | −9.6% of holding | +8.2% | +42.1% | 36,892 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Smith Mark Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,320 @ $470.88 | $622K | −3.1% of holding | +8.2% | +42.1% | 40,794 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Smith Mark Andrew | officer | Sale | 975 @ $476.99 | $465K | −2.3% of holding | +8.2% | +42.1% | 42,114 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Smith Mark Andrew | officer | Sale | 803 @ $475.02 | $381K | −1.8% of holding | +8.2% | +42.1% | 43,089 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Smith Mark Andrew | officer | Sale | 800 @ $469.69 | $376K | −1.8% of holding | +8.2% | +42.1% | 43,892 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Smith Mark Andrew | officer | Sale | 200 @ $449.10 | $90K | −0.6% of holding | +13.7% | +44.8% | 31,582 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Smith Mark Andrew | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $439.30 | $3.5M | −20.2% of holding | −2.9% | +35.8% | 31,582 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Smith Mark Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,580 @ $419.00 | $662K | −4.8% of holding | +2.1% | +31.5% | 31,582 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-16 | Smith Mark Andrew | officer | Sale | 2,671 @ $415.00 | $1.1M | −7.8% of holding | +0.9% | +31.0% | 31,582 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
180 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Merritt Brett Michael | officer | Gift | 218 | 10,186 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Fetch Bonnie J | director | Gift | 155 | 11,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Stoner Nathan R | officer | Gift | 600 | 8,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | LYNCH THOMAS J | director | Award / grant | 306 | 11,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Quintos Karen H | director | Award / grant | 306 | 5,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Nelson Kimberly A | director | Award / grant | 306 | 4,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | MILLER WILLIAM I | director | Award / grant | 306 | 34,670 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Harris Carla A | director | Award / grant | 306 | 3,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Belske Gary L | director | Award / grant | 306 | 3,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fisher Daniel William | director | Award / grant | 306 | 2,603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Di Leo Allen Bruno V | director | Award / grant | 306 | 5,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Stone John H | director | Award / grant | 306 | 2,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Tsien Matthew | director | Award / grant | 306 | 753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Boakye Marvin | officer | Gift | 150 | 8,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Lamb-Hale Nicole | director | Award / grant | 290 | 16,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | RUMSEY JENNIFER | director | Withheld for tax | 19,450 | 46,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Smith Mark Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,878 | 39,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Lamb-Hale Nicole | director | Withheld for tax | 2,877 | 16,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Boakye Marvin | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,735 | 11,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Bush Jennifer Mary | director | Withheld for tax | 2,504 | 16,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Davis Amy Rochelle | director | Withheld for tax | 2,264 | 19,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Stoner Nathan R | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,021 | 10,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Fetch Bonnie J | director | Withheld for tax | 1,297 | 12,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Wiltrout Jeffrey T | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,098 | 5,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Newsome Earl | director | Withheld for tax | 1,044 | 5,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | JACKSON DONALD G | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,000 | 9,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Merritt Brett Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 998 | 11,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Wood Jonathan David | officer | Withheld for tax | 888 | 4,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Davis Amy Rochelle | director | Withheld for tax | 883 | 22,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Peters Luther E | officer | Withheld for tax | 579 | 9,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Wright Benjamin G. | director | Withheld for tax | 559 | 3,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gaidoo John O | officer | Withheld for tax | 380 | 3,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Enright Robert | officer | Withheld for tax | 313 | 1,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gaidoo John O | officer | Withheld for tax | 130 | 3,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Merritt Brett Michael | officer | Award / grant | 2,832 | 12,103 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Davis Amy Rochelle | director | Award / grant | 5,181 | 23,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Fetch Bonnie J | director | Award / grant | 3,296 | 13,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | RUMSEY JENNIFER | director | Award / grant | 44,736 | 66,082 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Enright Robert | officer | Award / grant | 1,056 | 2,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Smith Mark Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 14,128 | 45,710 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-31 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-03-16 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-24 | $1–15K |
| Bruce Westerman | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-21 | $1–15K |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | purchase | 2025-05-06 | 2025-05-05 | $1–15K |
| Bruce Westerman | House | purchase | 2025-04-16 | 2025-03-03 | $1–15K |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | purchase | 2025-04-11 | 2025-04-09 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2024-12-09 | 2024-11-08 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2024-12-09 | 2024-11-08 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.