CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $33.68 · now $33.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CMG has typically landed between $28.88 and $38.87 — a range of −14.3% to +15.4% from the issuance price $33.68.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($33.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CMG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $33.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$28.88worst · -14.3%$38.87best · +15.4%
  • now $33.68 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $33.84 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $31.72–$35.95
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $28.88–$38.87
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−49.9%−49.9%+0.7%
2020-02-14−43.1%−43.1%+1.3%
2020-02-19−42.6%−50.2%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+76.5%+0.0%+76.5%
2008-11-20+64.1%+0.0%+66.7%
2008-11-19+57.2%−4.9%+58.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$40.8B
market cap
$1.09
EPS (TTM)
29.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$11.9B
'20'25
Net income$1.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr54.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr3.48
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $33.68$23.88$54.08
  • DCF (intrinsic)$26.93
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$25.97
  • Analyst target · range $36.00–$52.00$42.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$33.68

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
78%
+4.0%
n=18
Feb
53%
+1.4%
n=19
Mar
68%
+3.7%
n=19
Apr
58%
+5.9%
n=19
May
42%
+0.6%
n=19
Jun
63%
+0.8%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.7%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.0%
n=19
Oct
28%
−3.3%
n=18
Nov
72%
+4.8%
n=18
Dec
61%
+0.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$44$282026-08-21: 1 insider sale, $96K — Bush Matthew R2026-02-24: 1 insider sale, $123K — FILIKRUSHEL PATRICIA2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $2.4M — Garner Curtis E2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $2.4M — Garner Curtis E2025-12-01: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — Garner Curtis E2025-08-25: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Eskenazi Ilene2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.1M2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $4.6M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $2.6M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $96K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Bush Matthew R — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed 3 days after the tradedirector FILIKRUSHEL PATRICIA — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Garner Curtis E — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Garner Curtis E — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed same dayofficer Garner Curtis E — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Eskenazi Ilene — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-21Bush Matthew RofficerSale2,675 @ $35.75$96K−11.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open21,415Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-24FILIKRUSHEL PATRICIAdirectorSale3,350 @ $36.58$123K−8.4% of holding−6.8%−9.4%36,376Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06Garner Curtis EofficerSale61,077 @ $40.01$2.4M−17.0% of holding−9.9%−30.9%298,360Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12Garner Curtis EofficerSale67,646 @ $36.05$2.4M−18.5% of holding+10.8%−20.4%298,360Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-01Garner Curtis EofficerSale61,892 @ $34.67$2.1M−17.2% of holding+7.5%−27.6%298,360Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25Eskenazi IlenedirectorSale26,576 @ $43.15$1.1M−23.9% of holding−10.7%−20.8%84,441Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-07Garner Curtis EofficerSale15,750 @ $56.32$887K−4.4% of holding−24.3%−42.5%339,732Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-25Garner Curtis EofficerSale63,000 @ $55.14$3.5M−15.1% of holding−20.1%−45.4%355,482Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-06-12Hickenlooper Robin SdirectorSale2,250 @ $51.21$115K−4.9% of holding+2.7%−46.3%43,412Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-12FILIKRUSHEL PATRICIAdirectorSale2,076 @ $51.13$106K−5.0% of holding+2.7%−46.3%39,726Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-06Boatwright ScottofficerSale19,000 @ $52.48$997K−5.4% of holding+2.1%−50.5%331,291Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-04Garner Curtis EofficerSale23,302 @ $52.14$1.2M−5.3% of holding+1.9%−50.4%418,482Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02Theodoredis Roger EofficerSale113,875 @ $49.70$5.7M−50.9% of holding+8.9%−46.7%109,815Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-21Garner Curtis EofficerSale23,134 @ $50.84$1.2M−5.2% of holding+2.6%−53.3%418,482Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-14McConnell JamieofficerSale3,087 @ $52.42$162K−9.9% of holding−5.4%−57.0%28,064Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13Garner Curtis EofficerSale6,891 @ $48.56$335K−1.6% of holding+5.0%−40.7%418,482Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-12Garner Curtis EofficerSale6,930 @ $50.21$348K−1.6% of holding+6.3%−40.5%418,482Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-11Garner Curtis EofficerSale6,940 @ $50.53$351K−1.6% of holding+2.9%−40.6%418,482Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Gutierrez MauriciodirectorPurchase9,400 @ $53.00$498K+42.7% of holding+1.1%−34.7%31,400Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25Garner Curtis EofficerSale20,937 @ $52.36$1.1M−4.8% of holding−0.5%−28.2%418,482Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-10McConnell JamieofficerSale11,319 @ $58.70$664K−28.7% of holding−5.8%−32.8%28,064Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-07Garner Curtis EofficerSale15,750 @ $57.31$903K−3.8% of holding−5.3%−33.8%394,764Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-11Schalow LaurieofficerSale16,846 @ $65.16$1.1M−9.1% of holding−10.1%−19.7%168,946Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-10Schalow LaurieofficerSale4,404 @ $65.01$286K−2.3% of holding−10.0%−22.2%185,792Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09Garner Curtis EofficerSale14,718 @ $64.33$947K−3.3% of holding−8.8%−21.7%427,296Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-09Garner Curtis EofficerSale1,032 @ $64.89$67K−0.2% of holding−8.8%−21.7%426,264Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-06Garner Curtis EofficerSale44,549 @ $65.25$2.9M−9.2% of holding−8.7%−20.4%442,014Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

143 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-22Boatwright ScottofficerWithheld for tax31,522318,609Form 4
2026-08-22Garner Curtis EofficerWithheld for tax27,582390,788Form 4
2026-08-22Schalow LaurieofficerWithheld for tax20,075176,465Form 4
2026-08-22Eskenazi IlenedirectorWithheld for tax19,70176,020Form 4
2026-08-22Rymer Adam TofficerWithheld for tax9,27683,882Form 4
2026-08-07Machado FernandodirectorAward / grant76,24376,243Form 4
2026-08-07Machado FernandodirectorAward / grant235,184235,184Form 4
2026-06-11Fuentes LauradirectorAward / grant6,88018,282Form 4
2026-06-11Hickenlooper Robin SdirectorAward / grant6,88050,292Form 4
2026-06-11FILIKRUSHEL PATRICIAdirectorAward / grant6,88043,256Form 4
2026-06-11Maw Scott HarlandirectorAward / grant6,88049,452Form 4
2026-06-11weinstein joshua iandirectorAward / grant6,88010,287Form 4
2026-06-11WINSTON MARY AdirectorAward / grant6,88037,682Form 4
2026-06-11Baldocchi Albert SdirectorAward / grant6,880862,140Form 4
2026-06-11Carey MattdirectorAward / grant6,88066,682Form 4
2026-06-11Gutierrez MauriciodirectorAward / grant6,88042,432Form 4
2026-05-20Baldocchi Albert SdirectorGift6,672855,260Form 4
2026-02-15Garner Curtis EofficerWithheld for tax134,177418,370Form 4
2026-02-15Boatwright ScottofficerWithheld for tax120,810350,131Form 4
2026-02-15Schalow LaurieofficerWithheld for tax37,113196,540Form 4
2026-02-15Rymer Adam TofficerWithheld for tax8,97193,158Form 4
2026-02-15Bush Matthew RofficerWithheld for tax2,36523,806Form 4
2026-02-15Rymer Adam TofficerAward / grant25,526102,129Form 4
2026-02-15Bush Matthew RofficerAward / grant6,41626,171Form 4
2026-02-15Boatwright ScottofficerAward / grant229,457470,941Form 4
2026-02-15Garner Curtis EofficerAward / grant254,846552,547Form 4
2026-02-15Schalow LaurieofficerAward / grant76,577233,653Form 4
2026-02-09Boatwright ScottofficerWithheld for tax8,048241,484Form 4
2026-02-09Garner Curtis EofficerWithheld for tax659297,701Form 4
2026-02-09Bush Matthew RofficerWithheld for tax47519,755Form 4
2026-02-09Schalow LaurieofficerWithheld for tax182157,076Form 4
2026-02-06Garner Curtis EofficerWithheld for tax25,023273,337Form 4
2026-02-06Garner Curtis EofficerOption exercise86,100359,437Form 4
2026-02-06Eskenazi IlenedirectorAward / grant20,31095,721Form 4
2026-02-06Kidd Jason AllanofficerAward / grant16,50232,542Form 4
2026-02-06Schalow LaurieofficerAward / grant8,886157,258Form 4
2026-02-06Bush Matthew RofficerAward / grant3,17420,107Form 4
2026-02-06Eskenazi IlenedirectorAward / grant65,84465,844Form 4
2026-02-06Rymer Adam TofficerAward / grant115,227115,227Form 4
2026-02-06Boatwright ScottofficerAward / grant444,445444,445Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-05-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousesale2026-05-132026-04-02$1–15K
Byron DonaldsHousesale2026-05-132026-04-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-01-132025-11-03$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132025-08-26$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.