Issued 2026-09-16 at $272.46 · now $272.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CME has typically landed between $253.49 and $297.40 — a range of −7.0% to +9.2% from the issuance price $272.46.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($272.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CME has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $272.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $272.46 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $275.83 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $266.41–$285.24
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $253.49–$297.4
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-22 | −48.5% | −48.5% | +5.0% |
| 2008-10-20 | −48.1% | −48.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-21 | −48.0% | −48.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-05-01 | +50.7% | +0.0% | +50.7% |
| 2009-04-30 | +49.0% | +0.0% | +49.0% |
| 2009-02-20 | +46.3% | −4.9% | +46.3% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$438.96
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$193.14
- Analyst target · range $260.00–$330.00$309.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$272.46
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Cook Elizabeth A | director | Sale | 500 @ $280.11 | $140K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,916 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-10 | DUFFY TERRENCE A | director | Sale | 14,372 @ $274.41 | $3.9M | −25.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 41,258 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | DUFFY TERRENCE A | director | Sale | 628 @ $275.03 | $173K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 40,630 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 325 @ $230.57 | $75K | +0.1% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 260,442 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 14 @ $230.57 | $3K | +0.4% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,621 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Piell Hilda Harris | officer | Sale | 5,753 @ $304.63 | $1.8M | −17.2% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,702 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | DUFFY TERRENCE A | director | Sale | 25,996 @ $298.14 | $7.8M | −28.7% of holding | −13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,634 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | DUFFY TERRENCE A | director | Sale | 9,004 @ $299.58 | $2.7M | −13.9% of holding | −13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,630 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 1,408 @ $297.38 | $419K | +0.5% of holding | −16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 260,118 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 62 @ $297.38 | $18K | +2.5% of holding | −16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,539 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Marcus Jonathan L | officer | Sale | 3,291 @ $333.37 | $1.1M | −31.4% of holding | −10.3% | −25.6% | 7,192 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Vroman Ken | officer | Sale | 5,160 @ $309.00 | $1.6M | −25.7% of holding | −6.7% | −26.4% | 14,910 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Cook Elizabeth A | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $320.00 | $320K | −5.3% of holding | +2.0% | −24.3% | 17,771 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Durkin Bryan T | director | Sale | 4,200 @ $309.65 | $1.3M | −8.9% of holding | +2.7% | −21.0% | 43,007 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-20 | GEPSMAN MARTIN J | director | Sale | 300 @ $305.90 | $92K | −1.2% of holding | +6.6% | −19.8% | 24,999 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | Suskind Dennis | director | Sale | 748 @ $300.00 | $224K | −21.7% of holding | +5.7% | −22.8% | 2,699 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 251 @ $278.37 | $70K | +0.1% of holding | +4.1% | −20.7% | 258,710 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 11 @ $278.37 | $3K | +0.4% of holding | +4.1% | −20.7% | 2,477 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | DUFFY TERRENCE A | director | Sale | 13,089 @ $269.10 | $3.5M | −14.4% of holding | −2.0% | −9.2% | 77,715 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | DUFFY TERRENCE A | director | Sale | 11,911 @ $270.05 | $3.2M | −15.3% of holding | −2.0% | −9.2% | 65,804 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Sammann Derek | officer | Sale | 5,886 @ $275.65 | $1.6M | −34.8% of holding | −5.5% | −10.1% | 11,028 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Sammann Derek | officer | Sale | 1,314 @ $275.74 | $362K | −15.8% of holding | −5.5% | −10.1% | 7,022 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Ford Harold Eugene Jr. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $263.53 | $264K | −47.8% of holding | +3.8% | +4.3% | 1,091 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 262 @ $265.19 | $70K | +0.1% of holding | −2.6% | +15.5% | 258,459 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 12 @ $265.22 | $3K | +0.5% of holding | −2.6% | +15.5% | 2,466 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Marcus Jonathan L | officer | Sale | 392 @ $262.00 | $103K | −4.8% of holding | +2.2% | +22.5% | 7,851 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-16 | McCourt Timothy Francis | officer | Sale | 379 @ $259.83 | $98K | −3.8% of holding | +2.1% | +21.5% | 9,508 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Marcus Jonathan L | officer | Sale | 376 @ $258.96 | $97K | −4.2% of holding | +2.1% | +21.5% | 8,537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Cutinho Sunil | officer | Sale | 5,966 @ $270.85 | $1.6M | −25.5% of holding | −2.9% | +10.2% | 17,440 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-26 | Cutinho Sunil | officer | Sale | 5,930 @ $272.10 | $1.6M | −20.2% of holding | −2.9% | +10.2% | 23,406 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-25 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 256 @ $270.53 | $69K | +0.1% of holding | −2.5% | −12.1% | 258,196 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 11 @ $270.53 | $3K | +0.5% of holding | −2.5% | −12.1% | 2,455 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Carey Charles P | director | Sale | 350 @ $265.35 | $93K | −6.7% of holding | −0.3% | −11.9% | 4,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Carey Charles P | director | Sale | 150 @ $265.36 | $40K | −2.8% of holding | −0.3% | −11.9% | 5,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Kaye Daniel G | director | Sale | 500 @ $282.42 | $141K | −12.0% of holding | −7.7% | −14.0% | 3,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Marcus Jonathan L | officer | Sale | 390 @ $277.50 | $108K | −5.5% of holding | −1.5% | −10.5% | 6,708 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Lockett Phyllis M | director | Sale | 1,060 @ $277.88 | $295K | −25.4% of holding | −2.1% | −11.2% | 3,108 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Carey Charles P | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $272.56 | $818K | −35.7% of holding | −4.0% | −10.0% | 5,400 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | GEPSMAN MARTIN J | director | Sale | 300 @ $273.17 | $82K | −1.2% of holding | −4.0% | −10.0% | 24,767 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Sammann Derek | officer | Sale | 2,475 @ $280.60 | $694K | −22.9% of holding | −7.4% | −27.6% | 8,336 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Sammann Derek | officer | Sale | 2,175 @ $280.63 | $610K | −13.0% of holding | −7.4% | −27.6% | 14,614 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Suskind Dennis | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $271.28 | $271K | −25.5% of holding | −1.5% | −26.0% | 2,915 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | GERDES LARRY G | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $266.12 | $532K | −5.2% of holding | −0.6% | −21.5% | 36,651 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-24 | GERDES LARRY G | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $265.10 | $265K | −2.5% of holding | +2.0% | −20.5% | 38,651 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-24 | GERDES LARRY G | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $263.10 | $263K | −2.5% of holding | +2.0% | −20.5% | 39,651 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 263 @ $262.62 | $69K | +0.1% of holding | +4.5% | −13.1% | 257,061 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 12 @ $262.62 | $3K | +0.5% of holding | +4.5% | −13.1% | 2,443 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Lucas Deborah J | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $256.95 | $385K | −30.9% of holding | +5.9% | −17.1% | 3,356 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | SIEGEL HOWARD J | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $260.00 | $2.6M | −31.4% of holding | +3.5% | −18.0% | 21,873 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | DUFFY TERRENCE A | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $259.18 | $7.8M | −36.1% of holding | −1.4% | −17.3% | 53,205 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | Sprague Suzanne | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $256.83 | $385K | −15.7% of holding | +6.2% | −6.0% | 8,036 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Piell Hilda Harris | officer | Sale | 3,984 @ $250.47 | $998K | −12.8% of holding | +10.2% | −3.8% | 27,046 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | Winkler Julie | officer | Sale | 11,592 @ $249.17 | $2.9M | −34.6% of holding | +12.9% | +4.4% | 21,885 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | Vroman Ken | officer | Sale | 5,066 @ $250.00 | $1.3M | −23.3% of holding | +12.9% | +4.4% | 16,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-16 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 1,369 @ $227.96 | $312K | +0.5% of holding | +3.3% | +12.6% | 256,805 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-16 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 60 @ $227.96 | $14K | +2.5% of holding | +3.3% | +12.6% | 2,432 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-27 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 264 @ $232.89 | $62K | +0.1% of holding | −0.7% | +14.4% | 255,436 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-27 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Purchase | 12 @ $232.89 | $3K | +0.5% of holding | −0.7% | +14.4% | 2,372 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
142 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | GEPSMAN MARTIN J | director | Award / grant | 645 | 25,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Award / grant | 645 | 3,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Durkin Bryan T | director | Award / grant | 645 | 43,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Bitsberger Timothy S. | director | Award / grant | 645 | 11,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Ford Harold Eugene Jr. | director | Award / grant | 645 | 1,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | SIEGEL HOWARD J | director | Award / grant | 645 | 48,436 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Lucas Deborah J | director | Award / grant | 645 | 4,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Carey Charles P | director | Award / grant | 645 | 6,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Suskind Dennis | director | Award / grant | 645 | 3,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Kaye Daniel G | director | Award / grant | 645 | 4,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hobert William W | director | Award / grant | 645 | 107,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Cook Elizabeth A | director | Award / grant | 645 | 18,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Tierney Robert J JR | director | Award / grant | 645 | 14,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Lockett Phyllis M | director | Award / grant | 645 | 4,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Maloney Patrick W | director | Award / grant | 645 | 4,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Mulchrone Patrick J | director | Award / grant | 645 | 29,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Seifu Rahael | director | Award / grant | 645 | 4,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Benesh Kathryn | director | Award / grant | 645 | 2,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | SHEPARD WILLIAM R | director | Award / grant | 422 | 3,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Carey Charles P | director | Award / grant | 422 | 6,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Ford Harold Eugene Jr. | director | Award / grant | 422 | 2,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | SIEGEL HOWARD J | director | Award / grant | 422 | 48,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hobert William W | director | Award / grant | 422 | 108,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hobert William W | director | Other acquisition | 20,320 | 106,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hobert William W | director | Other acquisition | 20,320 | 19,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hobert William W | director | Other acquisition | 20,320 | 106,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hobert William W | director | Other acquisition | 20,320 | 19,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | DUFFY TERRENCE A | director | Award / grant | 62,902 | 118,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | DUFFY TERRENCE A | director | Withheld for tax | 27,866 | 90,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Winkler Julie | officer | Award / grant | 8,256 | 33,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Sammann Derek | officer | Award / grant | 8,256 | 16,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Cutinho Sunil | officer | Award / grant | 8,256 | 27,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Piell Hilda Harris | officer | Award / grant | 7,076 | 36,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Vroman Ken | officer | Award / grant | 7,076 | 21,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Fitzpatrick Lynne | officer | Award / grant | 5,504 | 26,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | McCourt Timothy Francis | officer | Award / grant | 5,504 | 15,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Sprague Suzanne | officer | Award / grant | 5,504 | 16,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Marcus Jonathan L | officer | Award / grant | 5,270 | 13,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Winkler Julie | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,658 | 30,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Cutinho Sunil | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,658 | 23,586 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-12-11 | 2025-11-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-07 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-29 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2025-05-21 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-14 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.