CMECME Group Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Data & Stock Exchangesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $272.46 · now $272.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CME has typically landed between $253.49 and $297.40 — a range of −7.0% to +9.2% from the issuance price $272.46.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-022026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($272.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CME has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $272.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$253.49worst · -7.0%$297.4best · +9.2%
  • now $272.46 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $275.83 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $266.41$285.24
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $253.49$297.4
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-22−48.5%−48.5%+5.0%
2008-10-20−48.1%−48.1%+0.0%
2008-10-21−48.0%−48.0%+0.0%
3 best
2009-05-01+50.7%+0.0%+50.7%
2009-04-30+49.0%+0.0%+49.0%
2009-02-20+46.3%−4.9%+46.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-022026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$92.5B
market cap
$11.79
EPS (TTM)
21.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-28
next earnings
Revenue$6.5B
'20'25
Net income$4.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$4.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr62.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr14.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.13
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $272.46$173.48$458.62
  • DCF (intrinsic)$438.96
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$193.14
  • Analyst target · range $260.00$330.00$309.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$272.46

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
−0.3%
n=18
Feb
79%
+3.9%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.1%
n=19
Apr
21%
−2.0%
n=19
May
58%
+3.1%
n=19
Jun
47%
−1.4%
n=19
Jul
42%
+0.6%
n=19
Aug
58%
+1.4%
n=19
Sep
47%
+0.7%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.7%
n=18
Nov
67%
+2.4%
n=18
Dec
56%
+1.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$317$2192026-09-14: 1 insider sale, $140K — Cook Elizabeth A2026-09-10: 2 insider sales, $4.1M — DUFFY TERRENCE A …2026-06-25: 2 insider purchases, $78K — SHEPARD WILLIAM R …2026-05-18: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Piell Hilda Harris2026-05-15: 2 insider sales, $10.4M — DUFFY TERRENCE A …2026-03-26: 2 insider purchases, $437K — SHEPARD WILLIAM R …2026-03-17: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Marcus Jonathan L2026-03-12: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Vroman Ken2026-03-06: 1 insider sale, $320K — Cook Elizabeth A2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Durkin Bryan T2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $92K — GEPSMAN MARTIN J2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $224K — Suskind Dennis2025-12-30: 2 insider purchases, $73K — SHEPARD WILLIAM R …2025-12-11: 2 insider sales, $6.7M — DUFFY TERRENCE A …2025-11-20: 2 insider sales, $2.0M — Sammann Derek …2025-11-03: 1 insider sale, $264K — Ford Harold Eugene Jr.2025-09-25: 2 insider purchases, $73K — SHEPARD WILLIAM R …2025-09-18: 1 insider sale, $103K — Marcus Jonathan L2025-09-16: 2 insider sales, $196K — McCourt Timothy Francis, Marcus Jonathan L2025-08-26: 2 insider sales, $3.2M — Cutinho Sunil …2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $3.2M2025-09: 2 open-market purchases, $73K2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $299K2025-11: 3 open-market sales, $2.2M2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $73K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $6.7M2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-03: 2 open-market purchases, $437K2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $3.0M2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $12.2M2026-06: 2 open-market purchases, $78K2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $4.3M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Cook Elizabeth A — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed same daydirector DUFFY TERRENCE A — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DUFFY TERRENCE A — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SHEPARD WILLIAM R — Purchase on 2026-06-25, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SHEPARD WILLIAM R — Purchase on 2026-06-25, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Piell Hilda Harris — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DUFFY TERRENCE A — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector DUFFY TERRENCE A — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector SHEPARD WILLIAM R — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SHEPARD WILLIAM R — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Marcus Jonathan L — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Vroman Ken — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed same daydirector Cook Elizabeth A — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Durkin Bryan T — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed same daydirector GEPSMAN MARTIN J — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed same daydirector Suskind Dennis — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector SHEPARD WILLIAM R — Purchase on 2025-12-30, filed 3 days after the tradedirector SHEPARD WILLIAM R — Purchase on 2025-12-30, filed 3 days after the tradedirector DUFFY TERRENCE A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector DUFFY TERRENCE A — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Sammann Derek — Sale on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sammann Derek — Sale on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ford Harold Eugene Jr. — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SHEPARD WILLIAM R — Purchase on 2025-09-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SHEPARD WILLIAM R — Purchase on 2025-09-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Marcus Jonathan L — Sale on 2025-09-18, filed same dayofficer McCourt Timothy Francis — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Marcus Jonathan L — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Cutinho Sunil — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed same dayofficer Cutinho Sunil — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Cook Elizabeth AdirectorSale500 @ $280.11$140K−2.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open17,916Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-10DUFFY TERRENCE AdirectorSale14,372 @ $274.41$3.9M−25.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open41,258Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-10DUFFY TERRENCE AdirectorSale628 @ $275.03$173K−1.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open40,630Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-25SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase325 @ $230.57$75K+0.1% of holding+12.8%not yet — horizon still open260,442Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-25SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase14 @ $230.57$3K+0.4% of holding+12.8%not yet — horizon still open3,621Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-18Piell Hilda HarrisofficerSale5,753 @ $304.63$1.8M−17.2% of holding−17.1%not yet — horizon still open27,702Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15DUFFY TERRENCE AdirectorSale25,996 @ $298.14$7.8M−28.7% of holding−13.5%not yet — horizon still open64,634Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15DUFFY TERRENCE AdirectorSale9,004 @ $299.58$2.7M−13.9% of holding−13.5%not yet — horizon still open55,630Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-26SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase1,408 @ $297.38$419K+0.5% of holding−16.1%not yet — horizon still open260,118Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-26SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase62 @ $297.38$18K+2.5% of holding−16.1%not yet — horizon still open2,539Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-17Marcus Jonathan LofficerSale3,291 @ $333.37$1.1M−31.4% of holding−10.3%−25.6%7,192Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-12Vroman KenofficerSale5,160 @ $309.00$1.6M−25.7% of holding−6.7%−26.4%14,910Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-06Cook Elizabeth AdirectorSale1,000 @ $320.00$320K−5.3% of holding+2.0%−24.3%17,771Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-23Durkin Bryan TdirectorSale4,200 @ $309.65$1.3M−8.9% of holding+2.7%−21.0%43,007Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-20GEPSMAN MARTIN JdirectorSale300 @ $305.90$92K−1.2% of holding+6.6%−19.8%24,999Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-06Suskind DennisdirectorSale748 @ $300.00$224K−21.7% of holding+5.7%−22.8%2,699Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-30SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase251 @ $278.37$70K+0.1% of holding+4.1%−20.7%258,710Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-30SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase11 @ $278.37$3K+0.4% of holding+4.1%−20.7%2,477Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-11DUFFY TERRENCE AdirectorSale13,089 @ $269.10$3.5M−14.4% of holding−2.0%−9.2%77,715Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11DUFFY TERRENCE AdirectorSale11,911 @ $270.05$3.2M−15.3% of holding−2.0%−9.2%65,804Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-20Sammann DerekofficerSale5,886 @ $275.65$1.6M−34.8% of holding−5.5%−10.1%11,028Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-20Sammann DerekofficerSale1,314 @ $275.74$362K−15.8% of holding−5.5%−10.1%7,022Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-03Ford Harold Eugene Jr.directorSale1,000 @ $263.53$264K−47.8% of holding+3.8%+4.3%1,091Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-25SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase262 @ $265.19$70K+0.1% of holding−2.6%+15.5%258,459Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-25SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase12 @ $265.22$3K+0.5% of holding−2.6%+15.5%2,466Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-18Marcus Jonathan LofficerSale392 @ $262.00$103K−4.8% of holding+2.2%+22.5%7,851Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-16McCourt Timothy FrancisofficerSale379 @ $259.83$98K−3.8% of holding+2.1%+21.5%9,508Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-16Marcus Jonathan LofficerSale376 @ $258.96$97K−4.2% of holding+2.1%+21.5%8,537Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-26Cutinho SunilofficerSale5,966 @ $270.85$1.6M−25.5% of holding−2.9%+10.2%17,440Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-26Cutinho SunilofficerSale5,930 @ $272.10$1.6M−20.2% of holding−2.9%+10.2%23,406Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-25SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase256 @ $270.53$69K+0.1% of holding−2.5%−12.1%258,196Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-25SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase11 @ $270.53$3K+0.5% of holding−2.5%−12.1%2,455Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-10Carey Charles PdirectorSale350 @ $265.35$93K−6.7% of holding−0.3%−11.9%4,900Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-10Carey Charles PdirectorSale150 @ $265.36$40K−2.8% of holding−0.3%−11.9%5,250Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-22Kaye Daniel GdirectorSale500 @ $282.42$141K−12.0% of holding−7.7%−14.0%3,668Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-20Marcus Jonathan LofficerSale390 @ $277.50$108K−5.5% of holding−1.5%−10.5%6,708Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Lockett Phyllis MdirectorSale1,060 @ $277.88$295K−25.4% of holding−2.1%−11.2%3,108Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15Carey Charles PdirectorSale3,000 @ $272.56$818K−35.7% of holding−4.0%−10.0%5,400Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-15GEPSMAN MARTIN JdirectorSale300 @ $273.17$82K−1.2% of holding−4.0%−10.0%24,767Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-05Sammann DerekofficerSale2,475 @ $280.60$694K−22.9% of holding−7.4%−27.6%8,336Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-05Sammann DerekofficerSale2,175 @ $280.63$610K−13.0% of holding−7.4%−27.6%14,614Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-29Suskind DennisdirectorSale1,000 @ $271.28$271K−25.5% of holding−1.5%−26.0%2,915Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-25GERDES LARRY GdirectorSale2,000 @ $266.12$532K−5.2% of holding−0.6%−21.5%36,651Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-24GERDES LARRY GdirectorSale1,000 @ $265.10$265K−2.5% of holding+2.0%−20.5%38,651Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-24GERDES LARRY GdirectorSale1,000 @ $263.10$263K−2.5% of holding+2.0%−20.5%39,651Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-26SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase263 @ $262.62$69K+0.1% of holding+4.5%−13.1%257,061Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-26SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase12 @ $262.62$3K+0.5% of holding+4.5%−13.1%2,443Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-14Lucas Deborah JdirectorSale1,500 @ $256.95$385K−30.9% of holding+5.9%−17.1%3,356Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13SIEGEL HOWARD JdirectorSale10,000 @ $260.00$2.6M−31.4% of holding+3.5%−18.0%21,873Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-11DUFFY TERRENCE AdirectorSale30,000 @ $259.18$7.8M−36.1% of holding−1.4%−17.3%53,205Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-03Sprague SuzanneofficerSale1,500 @ $256.83$385K−15.7% of holding+6.2%−6.0%8,036Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-27Piell Hilda HarrisofficerSale3,984 @ $250.47$998K−12.8% of holding+10.2%−3.8%27,046Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-13Winkler JulieofficerSale11,592 @ $249.17$2.9M−34.6% of holding+12.9%+4.4%21,885Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-13Vroman KenofficerSale5,066 @ $250.00$1.3M−23.3% of holding+12.9%+4.4%16,715Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-16SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase1,369 @ $227.96$312K+0.5% of holding+3.3%+12.6%256,805Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-16SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase60 @ $227.96$14K+2.5% of holding+3.3%+12.6%2,432Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-27SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase264 @ $232.89$62K+0.1% of holding−0.7%+14.4%255,436Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-27SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase12 @ $232.89$3K+0.5% of holding−0.7%+14.4%2,372Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

142 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-25GEPSMAN MARTIN JdirectorAward / grant64525,644Form 4
2026-06-25SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorAward / grant6453,184Form 4
2026-06-25Durkin Bryan TdirectorAward / grant64543,652Form 4
2026-06-25Bitsberger Timothy S.directorAward / grant64511,766Form 4
2026-06-25Ford Harold Eugene Jr.directorAward / grant6451,736Form 4
2026-06-25SIEGEL HOWARD JdirectorAward / grant64548,436Form 4
2026-06-25Lucas Deborah JdirectorAward / grant6454,533Form 4
2026-06-25Carey Charles PdirectorAward / grant6456,424Form 4
2026-06-25Suskind DennisdirectorAward / grant6453,344Form 4
2026-06-25Kaye Daniel GdirectorAward / grant6454,845Form 4
2026-06-25Hobert William WdirectorAward / grant645107,584Form 4
2026-06-25Cook Elizabeth AdirectorAward / grant64518,416Form 4
2026-06-25Tierney Robert J JRdirectorAward / grant64514,345Form 4
2026-06-25Lockett Phyllis MdirectorAward / grant6454,285Form 4
2026-06-25Maloney Patrick WdirectorAward / grant6454,743Form 4
2026-06-25Mulchrone Patrick JdirectorAward / grant64529,130Form 4
2026-06-25Seifu RahaeldirectorAward / grant6454,739Form 4
2026-06-25Benesh KathryndirectorAward / grant6452,752Form 4
2026-06-25SHEPARD WILLIAM RdirectorAward / grant4223,606Form 4
2026-06-25Carey Charles PdirectorAward / grant4226,846Form 4
2026-06-25Ford Harold Eugene Jr.directorAward / grant4222,158Form 4
2026-06-25SIEGEL HOWARD JdirectorAward / grant42248,858Form 4
2026-06-25Hobert William WdirectorAward / grant422108,006Form 4
2026-05-01Hobert William WdirectorOther acquisition20,320106,939Form 4
2026-05-01Hobert William WdirectorOther acquisition20,32019,680Form 4
2026-05-01Hobert William WdirectorOther acquisition20,320106,939Form 4
2026-05-01Hobert William WdirectorOther acquisition20,32019,680Form 4
2026-03-15DUFFY TERRENCE AdirectorAward / grant62,902118,496Form 4
2026-03-15DUFFY TERRENCE AdirectorWithheld for tax27,86690,630Form 4
2026-03-15Winkler JulieofficerAward / grant8,25633,768Form 4
2026-03-15Sammann DerekofficerAward / grant8,25616,939Form 4
2026-03-15Cutinho SunilofficerAward / grant8,25627,244Form 4
2026-03-15Piell Hilda HarrisofficerAward / grant7,07636,494Form 4
2026-03-15Vroman KenofficerAward / grant7,07621,986Form 4
2026-03-15Fitzpatrick LynneofficerAward / grant5,50426,428Form 4
2026-03-15McCourt Timothy FrancisofficerAward / grant5,50415,012Form 4
2026-03-15Sprague SuzanneofficerAward / grant5,50416,351Form 4
2026-03-15Marcus Jonathan LofficerAward / grant5,27013,121Form 4
2026-03-15Winkler JulieofficerWithheld for tax3,65830,110Form 4
2026-03-15Cutinho SunilofficerWithheld for tax3,65823,586Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-07-022026-06-16$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122025-05-21$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-09-112025-08-14$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.