CMCSAComcast CorporationCommunication Services · Telecommunications Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.73 · now $23.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CMCSA has typically landed between $21.05 and $26.13 — a range of −11.3% to +10.1% from the issuance price $23.73.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CMCSA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$21.05worst · -11.3%$26.13best · +10.1%
  • now $23.73 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $23.52 (-0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.32–$24.72
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.05–$26.13
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−34.0%−36.6%+0.0%
2008-09-25−34.0%−34.0%+4.1%
2008-09-16−30.3%−30.3%+0.9%
3 best
2009-03-09+25.7%+0.0%+29.9%
2009-03-06+24.1%−3.5%+25.3%
2020-11-02+23.3%+0.0%+26.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$79.1B
market cap
$3.09
EPS (TTM)
7.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-29
next earnings
Revenue$123.7B
'20'25
Net income$20.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$21.9B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr16.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr20.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.14
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 17 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $23.73$-4.24$390.75
  • DCF (intrinsic)$363.51
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.0× · n=17$49.52
  • Analyst target · range $23.00–$36.00$27.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$23.73

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.5%
n=18
Feb
58%
+1.1%
n=19
Mar
63%
+0.3%
n=19
Apr
63%
+1.6%
n=19
May
53%
−0.2%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.2%
n=19
Jul
79%
+3.8%
n=19
Aug
63%
−0.4%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.5%
n=19
Oct
50%
−0.2%
n=18
Nov
56%
+3.0%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$33$222026-03-05: 1 insider sale, $143K — Armstrong Jason2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Cavanagh Michael J2026-02-03: 1 insider sale, $246K — NAKAHARA ASUKA2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $2.1M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $143K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Armstrong Jason — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Cavanagh Michael J — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector NAKAHARA ASUKA — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-05Armstrong JasonofficerSale4,494 @ $31.73$143K−2.6% of holding−8.4%−27.6%167,906Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11Cavanagh Michael JdirectorSale57,947 @ $32.66$1.9M−8.5% of holding−2.9%−30.4%622,336Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03NAKAHARA ASUKAdirectorSale8,275 @ $29.70$246K−12.5% of holding+7.4%−26.9%57,958Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

227 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02ROBERTS BRIAN LdirectorGift101,9005,391,826Form 4
2026-09-01Cavanagh Michael JdirectorDiscretionary565,6420Form 4
2026-09-01Cavanagh Michael JdirectorDiscretionary392,7690Form 4
2026-09-01ROBERTS BRIAN LdirectorDiscretionary382,8600Form 4
2026-08-17BREEN EDWARD DdirectorGift62,44027,337Form 4
2026-08-05ROBERTS BRIAN LdirectorGift204,1005,493,726Form 4
2026-06-30Smith GordondirectorAward / grant1,37510,522Form 4
2026-06-30Brady Louise F.directorAward / grant1,37534,770Form 4
2026-06-30Baltimore Thomas J JrdirectorAward / grant1,37541,257Form 4
2026-06-30Honickman Jeffrey AdirectorAward / grant1,783271,784Form 4
2026-06-30BREEN EDWARD DdirectorAward / grant81589,777Form 4
2026-05-19ROBERTS BRIAN LdirectorGift202,5005,697,826Form 4
2026-05-11BREEN EDWARD DdirectorGift32,44088,962Form 4
2026-04-03Murdock Daniel C.officerWithheld for tax2,07362,362Form 4
2026-04-03Murdock Daniel C.officerOption exercise5,26864,435Form 4
2026-04-03Murdock Daniel C.officerOption exercise5,26848,290Form 4
2026-03-31BREEN EDWARD DdirectorAward / grant69756,522Form 4
2026-03-31Smith GordondirectorAward / grant1,1769,045Form 4
2026-03-31Brady Louise F.directorAward / grant1,17632,683Form 4
2026-03-31Baltimore Thomas J JrdirectorAward / grant1,17639,043Form 4
2026-03-31Honickman Jeffrey AdirectorAward / grant1,524262,583Form 4
2026-03-17Khoury JenniferofficerWithheld for tax10,51460,538Form 4
2026-03-17Khoury JenniferofficerOption exercise10,86771,052Form 4
2026-03-17Khoury JenniferofficerOption exercise10,8670Form 4
2026-03-17BREEN EDWARD DdirectorGift30,00055,825Form 4
2026-03-05Armstrong JasonofficerWithheld for tax69,00398,903Form 4
2026-03-05Armstrong JasonofficerOption exercise73,497172,400Form 4
2026-03-05Armstrong JasonofficerOption exercise73,4970Form 4
2026-03-01Reid Thomas J.directorWithheld for tax48,665174,809Form 4
2026-03-01ROBERTS BRIAN LdirectorWithheld for tax45,5785,893,393Form 4
2026-03-01Armstrong JasonofficerWithheld for tax43,06098,903Form 4
2026-03-01Cavanagh Michael JdirectorWithheld for tax34,98038,633Form 4
2026-03-01Khoury JenniferofficerWithheld for tax2,87360,185Form 4
2026-03-01Armstrong JasonofficerWithheld for tax2,688141,963Form 4
2026-03-01Armstrong JasonofficerWithheld for tax2,099144,651Form 4
2026-03-01Khoury JenniferofficerWithheld for tax1,96763,058Form 4
2026-03-01Khoury JenniferofficerWithheld for tax1,26065,025Form 4
2026-03-01Murdock Daniel C.officerWithheld for tax1,01259,167Form 4
2026-03-01Murdock Daniel C.officerWithheld for tax94460,179Form 4
2026-03-01Murdock Daniel C.officerWithheld for tax77161,123Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-16$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-30$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-07-022026-06-16$1–15K
Mike KellyHousesale2026-06-112026-05-07$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-18$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-05$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-01$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-07$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-11$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.