CMCCommercial Metals CompanyBasic Materials · Steelas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $65.82 · now $65.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CMC has typically landed between $55.30 and $76.33 — a range of −16.0% to +16.0% from the issuance price $65.82.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($65.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CMC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $65.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$55.3worst · -16.0%$76.33best · +16.0%
  • now $65.82 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $67.57 (+2.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $63.32–$71.82
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $55.3–$76.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-16−57.4%−57.4%+2.5%
2008-09-11−55.1%−55.1%+6.3%
2008-09-08−54.3%−54.3%+1.6%
3 best
2008-11-20+81.9%+0.0%+117.1%
2008-11-19+58.5%−17.7%+78.8%
2008-12-04+50.3%+0.0%+50.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.6%
n=20
Feb
55%
+2.6%
n=20
Mar
50%
+1.5%
n=20
Apr
55%
+1.9%
n=20
May
55%
+0.5%
n=20
Jun
40%
+0.9%
n=20
Jul
70%
+2.6%
n=20
Aug
35%
−3.4%
n=20
Sep
45%
−2.4%
n=20
Oct
60%
+2.9%
n=20
Nov
75%
+6.8%
n=20
Dec
45%
+0.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$83$552026-08-13: 1 insider purchase, $100K — McPherson John R2026-07-10: 1 insider purchase, $504K — MATT PETER R2026-02-03: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — DURBIN JENNIFER J2026-01-20: 1 insider purchase, $149K — ARRIOLA DENNIS V2025-10-31: 1 insider sale, $373K — Halloran Brian N.2025-10-20: 2 insider purchases, $100K — McPherson John R …2025-10: 2 open-market purchases, $100K2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $373K2026-01: 1 open-market purchase, $149K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $2.0M2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $504K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $100K↑ buys↓ salesdirector McPherson John R — Purchase on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MATT PETER R — Purchase on 2026-07-10, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer DURBIN JENNIFER J — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ARRIOLA DENNIS V — Purchase on 2026-01-20, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Halloran Brian N. — Sale on 2025-10-31, filed 4 days after the tradedirector McPherson John R — Purchase on 2025-10-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector McPherson John R — Purchase on 2025-10-20, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13McPherson John RdirectorPurchase1,390 @ $71.92$100K+6.8% of holding−7.7%not yet — horizon still open21,927Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-10MATT PETER RdirectorPurchase8,230 @ $61.30$504K+4.7% of holding+14.5%not yet — horizon still open181,522Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-03DURBIN JENNIFER JofficerSale25,050 @ $79.97$2.0M−32.1% of holding−15.4%−19.2%52,880Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-20ARRIOLA DENNIS VdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $74.69$149K+27.6% of holding+2.1%−19.9%9,238Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-31Halloran Brian N.officerSale6,232 @ $59.87$373K−9.7% of holding+7.1%+11.5%58,055Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-20McPherson John RdirectorPurchase1,712 @ $58.09$99K+34.2% of holding+0.7%+13.1%6,712Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-20McPherson John RdirectorPurchase10 @ $58.68$587+0.1% of holding+0.7%+13.1%6,722Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-04McPherson John RdirectorPurchase2,475 @ $40.42$100K+19.5% of holding+0.2%+9.9%15,141Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-27MATT PETER RdirectorPurchase6,100 @ $48.30$295K+4.9% of holding−5.3%+4.8%129,417Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

110 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-15McPherson John RdirectorAward / grant4220,537Form 4
2026-07-15ARRIOLA DENNIS VdirectorAward / grant229,299Form 4
2026-07-15Perkins Tandra CdirectorAward / grant196,171Form 4
2026-07-15WETHERBEE ROBERT SdirectorAward / grant713,298Form 4
2026-07-15HICKTON DAWNE SdirectorAward / grant42,772Form 4
2026-07-01MCCULLOUGH GARY EdirectorAward / grant59229,362Form 4
2026-07-01McPherson John RdirectorAward / grant59220,495Form 4
2026-06-23Dumais Michael RdirectorAward / grant1,2149,214Form 4
2026-04-15McPherson John RdirectorAward / grant4219,903Form 4
2026-04-15ARRIOLA DENNIS VdirectorAward / grant229,277Form 4
2026-04-15Perkins Tandra CdirectorAward / grant196,152Form 4
2026-04-15WETHERBEE ROBERT SdirectorAward / grant713,291Form 4
2026-04-15HICKTON DAWNE SdirectorAward / grant42,768Form 4
2026-04-10MATT PETER RdirectorWithheld for tax4,685173,292Form 4
2026-04-01MCCULLOUGH GARY EdirectorAward / grant57628,770Form 4
2026-04-01McPherson John RdirectorAward / grant57619,861Form 4
2026-02-02McPherson John RdirectorAward / grant3119,285Form 4
2026-02-02ARRIOLA DENNIS VdirectorAward / grant179,255Form 4
2026-02-02Perkins Tandra CdirectorAward / grant146,133Form 4
2026-02-02WETHERBEE ROBERT SdirectorAward / grant513,284Form 4
2026-02-02HICKTON DAWNE SdirectorAward / grant32,764Form 4
2026-01-23SLOAN LINDSAY LofficerGift20017,411Form 4
2026-01-14WETHERBEE ROBERT SdirectorAward / grant2,22213,279Form 4
2026-01-14Perkins Tandra CdirectorAward / grant2,2226,119Form 4
2026-01-14SZEWS CHARLES LdirectorAward / grant2,22262,842Form 4
2026-01-14MCCULLOUGH GARY EdirectorAward / grant2,22228,194Form 4
2026-01-14McPherson John RdirectorAward / grant2,22219,254Form 4
2026-01-14ARRIOLA DENNIS VdirectorAward / grant2,2227,238Form 4
2026-01-14Barton Lisa MdirectorAward / grant2,22224,862Form 4
2026-01-14HICKTON DAWNE SdirectorAward / grant1,1111,650Form 4
2026-01-14HICKTON DAWNE SdirectorAward / grant1,1112,761Form 4
2026-01-02MCCULLOUGH GARY EdirectorAward / grant50425,972Form 4
2026-01-02McPherson John RdirectorAward / grant48717,032Form 4
2025-11-13RAISS SARAH E.directorAward / grant49100,548Form 4
2025-11-13McPherson John RdirectorAward / grant3516,545Form 4
2025-11-13ARRIOLA DENNIS VdirectorAward / grant155,016Form 4
2025-11-13Perkins Tandra CdirectorAward / grant123,897Form 4
2025-11-13HICKTON DAWNE SdirectorAward / grant1539Form 4
2025-10-14MATT PETER RdirectorWithheld for tax12,973134,471Form 4
2025-10-14LAWRENCE PAUL JAMESofficerWithheld for tax5,693204,341Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.