CLWClearwater Paper CorporationBasic Materials · Paper, Lumber & Forest Productsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.12 · now $21.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CLW has typically landed between $17.68 and $25.57 — a range of −16.3% to +21.1% from the issuance price $21.12.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,450 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-12-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CLW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$17.68worst · -16.3%$25.57best · +21.1%
  • now $21.12 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.84 (-1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.35–$22.33
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.68–$25.57
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,450 windows spanning 2008-12-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-12-15−55.9%−65.8%+0.0%
2008-12-12−55.1%−67.0%+0.0%
2008-12-05−54.2%−68.4%+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-07+185.1%+0.0%+185.1%
2009-04-08+180.4%+0.0%+180.4%
2009-04-13+175.4%+0.0%+175.4%

4,450 overlapping windows · 2008-12-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~18 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+5.6%
n=18
Feb
28%
−5.1%
n=18
Mar
50%
−2.0%
n=18
Apr
50%
+5.6%
n=18
May
56%
+3.0%
n=18
Jun
44%
+1.3%
n=18
Jul
83%
+8.4%
n=18
Aug
44%
+1.3%
n=18
Sep
56%
+0.8%
n=18
Oct
41%
−1.8%
n=17
Nov
71%
+4.4%
n=17
Dec
41%
−0.8%
n=17

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$23$122025-11-28: 1 insider sale, $161K — Bowden Steve M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $161K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Bowden Steve M — Sale on 2025-11-28, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-11-28Bowden Steve MofficerSale8,889 @ $18.14$161K−11.5% of holding−4.2%−20.5%68,516Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-17Moyes Kari G.officerSale1,132 @ $23.98$27K−1.4% of holding+7.3%−26.4%81,439Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-27Moyes Kari G.officerSale2,778 @ $26.72$74K−3.2% of holding+1.5%−29.9%83,799Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

97 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-15Baker SherriofficerWithheld for tax4,63440,847Form 4
2026-07-01HILLMAN JEANNE MdirectorAward / grant1,55013,173Form 4
2026-07-01Rome Marc D.officerWithheld for tax22618,874Form 4
2026-05-18Kitch Arsen S.officerAward / grant9,154403,029Form 4
2026-05-15Passarello Mathew DofficerWithheld for tax17926,214Form 4
2026-05-08LAYMON JOE WdirectorAward / grant8,39235,818Form 4
2026-05-08Corkrean John JdirectorAward / grant8,39235,818Form 4
2026-05-08HILLMAN JEANNE MdirectorAward / grant8,39221,325Form 4
2026-05-08Nelson Ann CdirectorAward / grant8,39230,594Form 4
2026-05-08O'Donnell John PdirectorAward / grant8,39243,575Form 4
2026-05-08Vickers Tucker Christine M.directorAward / grant8,39226,540Form 4
2026-05-08TOELDTE ALEXANDERdirectorAward / grant8,39246,856Form 4
2026-04-01HILLMAN JEANNE MdirectorAward / grant1,67711,624Form 4
2026-03-15Kitch Arsen S.officerWithheld for tax5,388402,010Form 4
2026-03-15Kitch Arsen S.officerWithheld for tax4,965397,045Form 4
2026-03-15Kitch Arsen S.officerWithheld for tax3,170393,875Form 4
2026-03-15Krajnik Sean M.officerWithheld for tax62325,600Form 4
2026-03-15Baker SherriofficerWithheld for tax56946,005Form 4
2026-03-15Bowden Steve MofficerWithheld for tax54081,254Form 4
2026-03-15Krajnik Sean M.officerWithheld for tax53425,066Form 4
2026-03-15Baker SherriofficerWithheld for tax52445,481Form 4
2026-03-15Bowden Steve MofficerWithheld for tax49780,757Form 4
2026-03-15Bowden Steve MofficerWithheld for tax45080,307Form 4
2026-03-15Passarello Mathew DofficerWithheld for tax39026,393Form 4
2026-03-15Aulin Virginia L.officerWithheld for tax38112,919Form 4
2026-03-15Rome Marc D.officerWithheld for tax35519,393Form 4
2026-03-15Rome Marc D.officerWithheld for tax29319,100Form 4
2026-03-15Krajnik Sean M.officerWithheld for tax19324,873Form 4
2026-03-15Barckley Rebecca AnneofficerWithheld for tax15920,487Form 4
2026-03-15Barckley Rebecca AnneofficerWithheld for tax14120,346Form 4
2026-03-15Barckley Rebecca AnneofficerWithheld for tax12320,223Form 4
2026-02-26Krajnik Sean M.officerAward / grant10,70826,223Form 4
2026-02-26Bowden Steve MofficerAward / grant13,27881,794Form 4
2026-02-26Barckley Rebecca AnneofficerAward / grant4,33820,646Form 4
2026-02-26Kitch Arsen S.officerAward / grant83,623407,398Form 4
2026-02-26Aulin Virginia L.officerAward / grant9,99413,300Form 4
2026-02-26Baker SherriofficerAward / grant15,22046,574Form 4
2026-02-26Passarello Mathew DofficerAward / grant10,42226,783Form 4
2026-02-26Rome Marc D.officerAward / grant11,42219,748Form 4
2026-01-15Rome Marc D.officerWithheld for tax818,326Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.