Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.56 · now $4.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CLOV has typically landed between $3.27 and $6.65 — a range of −28.2% to +45.8% from the issuance price $4.56.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,551 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-06-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CLOV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.56 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.37 (-4.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.68–$5.07
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.27–$6.65
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,551 windows spanning 2020-06-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-02-02 | −47.8% | −47.8% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-15 | −45.4% | −46.6% | +0.0% |
| 2021-06-09 | −45.2% | −45.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-07-23 | +110.8% | −3.6% | +110.8% |
| 2024-07-24 | +110.0% | +0.0% | +118.8% |
| 2024-07-25 | +103.7% | +0.0% | +113.4% |
1,551 overlapping windows · 2020-06-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+5.2%
n=6
Feb
17%
−9.0%
n=6
Mar
17%
−9.7%
n=6
Apr
33%
+4.0%
n=6
May
50%
+17.2%
n=6
Jun
67%
+15.5%
n=6
Jul
57%
+9.1%
n=7
Aug
43%
+4.5%
n=7
Sep
57%
−2.0%
n=7
Oct
50%
+4.1%
n=6
Nov
17%
−15.9%
n=6
Dec
33%
−0.7%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Wai Conrad | officer | Sale | 300,000 @ $4.72 | $1.4M | −20.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,170,056 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 9,273 @ $4.78 | $44K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,805,367 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Soares Karen | officer | Sale | 6,846 @ $4.78 | $33K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,607,371 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | OLDAKOWSKI JOSEPH FRANK | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $5.16 | $103K | −6.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 279,067 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | THORNTON JOSEPH CLAY | officer | Sale | 17,775 @ $4.39 | $78K | −1.4% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,249,526 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Toy Andrew | director | Sale | 87,798 @ $4.65 | $408K | −0.9% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,459,316 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-20 | Soares Karen | officer | Sale | 51,700 @ $4.51 | $233K | −3.3% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,505,522 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-17 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 4,839 @ $4.53 | $22K | −0.2% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,814,640 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-15 | Toy Andrew | director | Sale | 62,711 @ $4.67 | $293K | −0.7% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,547,114 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Wai Conrad | officer | Sale | 24,215 @ $4.67 | $113K | −2.1% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,145,699 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 13,119 @ $4.67 | $61K | −0.5% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,819,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Soares Karen | officer | Sale | 10,519 @ $4.67 | $49K | −0.7% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,557,222 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | THORNTON JOSEPH CLAY | officer | Sale | 4,630 @ $4.67 | $22K | −0.4% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,212,954 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 2,384 @ $4.68 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,832,598 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 6,229 @ $5.26 | $33K | −0.2% of holding | −18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,834,982 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-01 | Toy Andrew | director | Sale | 313,476 @ $5.32 | $1.7M | −3.2% of holding | −22.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,609,825 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-17 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 2,360 @ $4.78 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,841,211 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | OLDAKOWSKI JOSEPH FRANK | officer | Sale | 12,102 @ $4.86 | $59K | −3.9% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 299,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 6,350 @ $4.61 | $29K | −0.2% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,843,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Soares Karen | officer | Sale | 4,681 @ $4.61 | $22K | −0.3% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,567,741 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 7,289 @ $4.91 | $36K | −0.3% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,849,921 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | Wai Conrad | officer | Sale | 220,426 @ $3.99 | $879K | −13.7% of holding | +28.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,390,056 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | Edwards Carladenise Armbrister | director | Sale | 67,160 @ $3.42 | $230K | −19.0% of holding | +41.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 285,432 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Priest Brady Patrick | officer | Sale | 98,039 @ $3.52 | $345K | −4.6% of holding | +33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,040,222 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 5,833 @ $1.91 | $11K | −0.2% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,716,735 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | Priest Brady Patrick | officer | Sale | 175,000 @ $2.17 | $380K | −8.1% of holding | −16.4% | +86.8% | 1,998,584 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 4,597 @ $2.58 | $12K | −0.2% of holding | −20.3% | +69.4% | 2,737,700 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-07 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 2,102 @ $2.53 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | −15.0% | +67.5% | 2,757,029 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-18 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 4,913 @ $2.61 | $13K | −0.2% of holding | −0.1% | +86.8% | 2,767,240 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-04 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 30,385 @ $3.58 | $109K | −1.1% of holding | −25.8% | −28.8% | 2,793,411 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 16,514 @ $2.69 | $44K | −0.6% of holding | −13.5% | −18.4% | 2,955,226 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 2,012 @ $2.65 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | +8.7% | −31.5% | 3,043,172 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-17 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 4,914 @ $3.09 | $15K | −0.2% of holding | −12.6% | −39.1% | 3,053,890 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Loengard Anna U | director | Purchase | 14,500 @ $2.59 | $38K | +96.0% of holding | +14.9% | −29.1% | 29,610 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Loengard Anna U | director | Purchase | 12,000 @ $2.60 | $31K | +76.9% of holding | +14.9% | −29.1% | 27,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Garipalli Vivek | director | Purchase | 31,980 @ $2.17 | $69K | +1.8% of holding | +30.5% | −13.7% | 1,856,247 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-07 | Garipalli Vivek | director | Purchase | 415,000 @ $2.24 | $930K | +29.4% of holding | +21.4% | −13.5% | 1,824,267 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 6,823 @ $2.89 | $20K | −0.2% of holding | −9.6% | −35.2% | 3,261,485 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Wai Conrad | officer | Sale | 91,197 @ $3.32 | $303K | −6.1% of holding | −23.7% | −30.7% | 1,403,701 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | Wai Conrad | officer | Sale | 118,600 @ $3.29 | $390K | −7.4% of holding | −22.6% | −28.3% | 1,494,898 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-07 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 2,012 @ $2.85 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | −2.6% | −21.8% | 3,297,821 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 19,789 @ $2.58 | $51K | −0.6% of holding | +11.6% | −15.7% | 3,308,539 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Sale | 20,450 @ $2.86 | $58K | −0.6% of holding | −1.5% | −21.0% | 3,196,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Edwards Carladenise Armbrister | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $3.61 | $722K | −42.3% of holding | +0.3% | −38.1% | 273,227 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Priest Brady Patrick | officer | Sale | 75,000 @ $3.68 | $276K | −3.0% of holding | +2.2% | −38.8% | 2,418,151 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Soares Karen | officer | Sale | 52,500 @ $3.80 | $200K | −3.9% of holding | +2.2% | −38.8% | 1,299,663 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
122 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | THORNTON JOSEPH CLAY | officer | Award / grant | 54,347 | 1,267,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Soares Karen | officer | Award / grant | 108,695 | 1,614,217 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | THORNTON JOSEPH CLAY | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,942 | 1,217,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Toy Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 85,704 | 9,923,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-18 | Priest Brady Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 36,113 | 2,138,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Toy Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 60,765 | 10,009,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Wai Conrad | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,463 | 1,169,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Priest Brady Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,471 | 2,174,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,712 | 2,857,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Soares Karen | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,161 | 1,572,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | THORNTON JOSEPH CLAY | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,158 | 1,234,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,197 | 2,869,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Toy Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 309,558 | 10,069,770 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Award / grant | 159,384 | 2,876,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Priest Brady Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 191,261 | 2,189,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Toy Andrew | director | Award / grant | 956,307 | 10,379,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wai Conrad | officer | Award / grant | 267,766 | 1,193,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Soares Karen | officer | Award / grant | 382,522 | 1,582,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,187 | 2,722,568 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Soares Karen | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,528 | 1,200,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Wai Conrad | officer | Withheld for tax | 100,195 | 925,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,945 | 2,728,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Soares Karen | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,090 | 1,204,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-08 | Toy Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 85,704 | 9,423,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Kuipers Peter J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 156,856 | 5,758,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-18 | Priest Brady Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 36,923 | 2,173,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Toy Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 60,764 | 9,508,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Wai Conrad | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,868 | 1,025,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Priest Brady Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,076 | 2,210,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Reynoso Jamie L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,732 | 2,742,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Soares Karen | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,686 | 1,210,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Garipalli Vivek | director | Withheld for tax | 1,655,949 | 1,856,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Garipalli Vivek | director | Option exercise | 1,655,949 | 3,512,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Garipalli Vivek | director | Option exercise | 3,342,699 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Garipalli Vivek | director | Option exercise | 3,342,699 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Garipalli Vivek | director | Option exercise | 3,342,699 | 10,247,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Garipalli Vivek | director | Option exercise | 1,655,949 | 8,591,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Garipalli Vivek | director | Option exercise | 3,342,699 | 10,247,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Garipalli Vivek | director | Option exercise | 1,655,949 | 8,591,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Edwards Carladenise Armbrister | director | Award / grant | 79,365 | 352,592 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.