CLMTCalumet Inc.Basic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $58.01 · now $58.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CLMT has typically landed between $44.16 and $77.15 — a range of −23.9% to +33.0% from the issuance price $58.01.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($58.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CLMT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $58.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$44.16worst · -23.9%$77.15best · +33.0%
  • now $58.01 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $59.67 (+2.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $53.78–$65.56
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $44.16–$77.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−77.6%−77.6%+0.7%
2020-02-14−74.4%−74.4%+0.0%
2020-02-21−73.7%−77.5%+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-06+98.9%+0.0%+116.8%
2020-04-07+93.2%+0.0%+100.0%
2020-04-08+92.7%+0.0%+92.7%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+7.3%
n=20
Feb
45%
−1.6%
n=20
Mar
50%
+0.9%
n=20
Apr
60%
+1.5%
n=20
May
55%
+4.8%
n=20
Jun
50%
+0.6%
n=20
Jul
75%
+5.7%
n=20
Aug
50%
+6.0%
n=20
Sep
45%
−1.5%
n=20
Oct
70%
+7.7%
n=20
Nov
40%
−0.9%
n=20
Dec
40%
−3.8%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$58$132026-07-01: 1 insider sale, $153K — Sajkowski Daniel J2026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $20.4M — Heritage Group2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $114K — Sajkowski Daniel J2025-12-04: 2 insider sales, $0 — Sajkowski Daniel J, Boss John G.2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $114K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $20.4M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $153K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Sajkowski Daniel J — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 1 day after the tradeother Heritage Group — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Sajkowski Daniel J — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Sajkowski Daniel J — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Boss John G. — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01Sajkowski Daniel JdirectorSale4,240 @ $36.16$153K−5.2% of holding+21.1%not yet — horizon still open77,718Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15Heritage GroupotherSale626,998 @ $32.54$20.4M−4.6% of holding+2.7%not yet — horizon still open12,980,211Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-01Sajkowski Daniel JdirectorSale3,310 @ $34.46$114K−3.9% of holding−12.6%not yet — horizon still open81,958Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-04Sajkowski Daniel JdirectorSale2,022 @ $0.00$0−1.2% of holding−0.7%+73.9%167,268Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-04Boss John G.directorSale1,011 @ $0.00$0−3.4% of holding−0.7%+73.9%28,793Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-01Sajkowski Daniel JdirectorSale2,000 @ $15.77$32K−2.4% of holding+0.2%+15.1%82,237Form 4 · filed 240 days after the trade
2025-06-24Sajkowski Daniel JdirectorSale1,518 @ $0.00$0−0.9% of holding+4.0%+12.8%164,237Form 4 · filed 101 days after the trade
2025-06-24Mawer Stephen PdirectorSale2,962 @ $0.00$0−1.0% of holding+4.0%+12.8%288,093Form 4 · filed 101 days after the trade
2025-06-24Boss John G.directorSale1,518 @ $0.00$0−5.3% of holding+4.0%+12.8%27,278Form 4 · filed 101 days after the trade
2025-06-16Straumins JenniferdirectorSale100,000 @ $16.23$1.6M−9.7% of holding−9.5%+7.5%934,589Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-16Morical Gregory JofficerSale25,123 @ $16.69$419K−38.9% of holding−9.5%+7.5%39,415Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-13Straumins JenniferdirectorSale50,000 @ $15.08$754K−4.6% of holding+2.3%+20.4%1,034,589Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-05Straumins JenniferdirectorSale100,000 @ $13.17$1.3M−8.4% of holding+18.9%+31.2%1,084,589Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02Sajkowski Daniel JdirectorSale20,000 @ $13.40$268K−19.6% of holding+17.4%+29.4%81,959Form 4 · filed 269 days after the trade
2025-06-02Carter James SdirectorPurchase100 @ $160.00$16K+111.1% of holding+17.4%+29.4%190Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02Carter James SdirectorPurchase90 @ $143.00$13Kownership Δ n/a+17.4%+29.4%90Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02Carter James SdirectorPurchase50 @ $210.00$11K+21.3% of holding+17.4%+29.4%285Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02Carter James SdirectorPurchase45 @ $185.00$8K+23.7% of holding+17.4%+29.4%235Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-14Sheets Daniel LdirectorSale10,000 @ $13.79$138K−27.2% of holding+7.5%+19.5%26,824Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13Sheets Daniel LdirectorSale10,000 @ $14.06$141K−21.4% of holding−1.7%+20.7%36,824Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-13Sheets Daniel LdirectorSale10,000 @ $13.81$138K−17.6% of holding−1.7%+20.7%46,824Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-13Sheets Daniel LdirectorSale10,000 @ $13.76$138K−15.0% of holding−1.7%+20.7%56,824Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-01Sajkowski Daniel JdirectorSale20,000 @ $10.66$213K−16.4% of holding+18.8%+59.0%101,959Form 4 · filed 301 days after the trade
2025-04-22Mawer Stephen PdirectorSale3,655 @ $9.29$34K−1.3% of holding+34.1%+67.4%283,652Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-01Sajkowski Daniel JdirectorSale20,000 @ $12.55$251K−14.1% of holding−15.6%+24.9%121,959Form 4 · filed 331 days after the trade
2025-03-24Mawer Stephen PdirectorSale3,655 @ $12.88$47K−1.3% of holding−14.9%+29.9%287,307Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-06Mawer Stephen PdirectorSale3,655 @ $12.64$46K−1.8% of holding−10.2%+29.6%196,898Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-04Lunin DaviddirectorPurchase2,500 @ $13.05$33Kownership Δ n/a+2.7%+16.3%2,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Sajkowski Daniel JdirectorSale20,000 @ $13.73$275K−12.3% of holding−1.8%+12.5%141,959Form 4 · filed 360 days after the trade
2025-01-17Mawer Stephen PdirectorSale18,629 @ $0.00$0−8.5% of holding−18.5%−13.4%200,553Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-18Straumins JenniferdirectorSale37,861 @ $21.42$811K−3.1% of holding−26.5%−28.1%1,184,589Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-04Sajkowski Daniel JdirectorSale3,569 @ $21.12$75K−2.2% of holding+1.3%−40.8%161,959Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-04Sheets Daniel LdirectorSale3,569 @ $21.12$75K−5.1% of holding+1.3%−40.8%66,824Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-03Straumins JenniferdirectorSale75,000 @ $21.65$1.6M−5.8% of holding+9.2%−38.5%1,213,529Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

223 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20Schumacher Amy MdirectorAward / grant488488Form 4
2026-08-20Raymond Paul CdirectorAward / grant178178Form 4
2026-08-20Raymond Paul CdirectorAward / grant534534Form 4
2026-08-20Boss John G.directorAward / grant5353Form 4
2026-08-20Boss John G.directorAward / grant160160Form 4
2026-08-20Mawer Stephen PdirectorAward / grant230230Form 4
2026-08-20Mawer Stephen PdirectorAward / grant690690Form 4
2026-08-20Schumacher Amy MdirectorAward / grant162162Form 4
2026-07-09Boss John G.directorWithheld for tax2,82733,033Form 4
2026-07-09Mawer Stephen PdirectorOption exercise13,780317,090Form 4
2026-07-09Mawer Stephen PdirectorWithheld for tax5,512311,578Form 4
2026-07-09Mawer Stephen PdirectorOption exercise13,7800Form 4
2026-07-09Sajkowski Daniel JdirectorWithheld for tax2,82781,958Form 4
2026-07-09Schumacher Amy MdirectorOption exercise7,0670Form 4
2026-07-09Schumacher Amy MdirectorOption exercise7,067258,160Form 4
2026-07-09Quintana Julio MdirectorOption exercise7,0670Form 4
2026-07-09Quintana Julio MdirectorOption exercise7,0677,067Form 4
2026-07-09Boss John G.directorOption exercise7,06735,860Form 4
2026-07-09NARWOLD KAREN GdirectorOption exercise7,0670Form 4
2026-07-09Boss John G.directorOption exercise7,0670Form 4
2026-07-09Sajkowski Daniel JdirectorOption exercise7,0670Form 4
2026-07-09Sajkowski Daniel JdirectorOption exercise7,06784,785Form 4
2026-07-09Raymond Paul CdirectorWithheld for tax2,82728,973Form 4
2026-07-09Raymond Paul CdirectorOption exercise7,06731,800Form 4
2026-07-09Raymond Paul CdirectorOption exercise7,0670Form 4
2026-07-09NARWOLD KAREN GdirectorOption exercise7,0677,067Form 4
2026-07-09Twitchell Karen A.directorOption exercise7,0670Form 4
2026-07-09Twitchell Karen A.directorOption exercise7,06713,389Form 4
2026-06-05Heritage GroupotherGift540,00012,440,211Form 4
2026-06-02NARWOLD KAREN GdirectorAward / grant3,4613,461Form 4
2026-06-02Boss John G.directorAward / grant3,4613,461Form 4
2026-06-02Raymond Paul CdirectorAward / grant3,4613,461Form 4
2026-06-02Quintana Julio MdirectorAward / grant3,4613,461Form 4
2026-06-02Twitchell Karen A.directorAward / grant3,4613,461Form 4
2026-06-02Sajkowski Daniel JdirectorAward / grant3,4613,461Form 4
2026-06-02Schumacher Amy MdirectorAward / grant3,4613,461Form 4
2026-06-02SANDERS BRADFORD TIMOTHYdirectorAward / grant3,4613,461Form 4
2026-06-02Mawer Stephen PdirectorAward / grant6,0926,092Form 4
2026-05-28Mawer Stephen PdirectorAward / grant322322Form 4
2026-05-28Mawer Stephen PdirectorAward / grant968968Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.