CLFD · TickerCove

CLFDClearfield, Inc.Technology · Communication Equipmentas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $30.09 · now $30.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CLFD has typically landed between $22.79 and $39.26 — a range of −24.3% to +30.5% from the issuance price $30.09.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($30.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$30.09 · 16% of range

$26 low$51.26 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.3%

typical move · IQR 22.1%

−24.3%worst (p90)+30.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CLFD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $30.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $30.09 (+0.0%)
typical $30 (-0.3%)
middle 50% $26.68–$33.32
90% range $22.79–$39.26

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2021-12-28	−41.3%	−43.4%	+1.8%
2021-12-27	−40.3%	−44.2%	+0.4%
2021-12-23	−39.2%	−40.3%	+7.5%
3 best
2009-08-24	+154.4%	+0.0%	+154.4%
2009-08-20	+149.1%	−2.3%	+149.1%
2009-08-21	+136.7%	+0.0%	+154.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

55%

+0.7%

n=20

Feb

50%

+3.1%

n=20

Mar

50%

−1.2%

n=20

Apr

45%

+0.4%

n=20

May

65%

+8.5%

n=20

Jun

60%

+4.4%

n=20

Jul

55%

+6.0%

n=20

Aug

50%

+1.0%

n=20

Sep

55%

+1.5%

n=20

Oct

55%

+1.0%

n=20

Nov

60%

+0.9%

n=20

Dec

50%

+3.5%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-01	Beranek Cheryl	director	Sale	1,778 @ $40.06	$71K	−0.4% of holding	−21.6%	not yet — horizon still open	492,973	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-09	Khemakhem Anis	officer	Sale	1,684 @ $39.90	$67K	−6.3% of holding	−16.9%	not yet — horizon still open	25,126	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01	Beranek Cheryl	director	Sale	7,500 @ $46.92	$352K	−1.5% of holding	−18.8%	not yet — horizon still open	494,541	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-27	Beranek Cheryl	director	Sale	2,500 @ $50.00	$125K	−0.5% of holding	−22.0%	not yet — horizon still open	502,041	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11	Beranek Cheryl	director	Sale	2,500 @ $45.02	$113K	−0.5% of holding	−17.3%	not yet — horizon still open	504,541	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11	Jones Walter Louis JR	director	Sale	2,391 @ $46.05	$110K	−21.6% of holding	−17.3%	not yet — horizon still open	8,682	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08	Beranek Cheryl	director	Sale	5,000 @ $40.27	$201K	−1.0% of holding	−1.6%	not yet — horizon still open	507,041	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19	Hayward Donald R.	director	Sale	3,595 @ $32.00	$115K	−24.9% of holding	−8.4%	−26.1%	10,870	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-15	ROTH RONALD G	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $30.06	$301K	+0.8% of holding	+9.0%	+24.0%	1,279,264	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-19	Hill John P	officer	Sale	23,809 @ $33.10	$788K	−13.5% of holding	+3.7%	−10.1%	152,246	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-14	Hill John P	officer	Sale	13,831 @ $33.05	$457K	−7.3% of holding	+1.8%	−8.8%	176,055	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-02-12	Hill John P	officer	Sale	16,539 @ $33.26	$550K	−8.0% of holding	−4.0%	−12.0%	189,886	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-05	ROTH RONALD G	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $31.00	$155K	+0.4% of holding	+18.7%	+33.2%	1,266,796	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

75 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-30	HERZOG DANIEL R	officer	Award / grant	752	85,834	Form 4
2026-06-30	Hill John P	officer	Award / grant	459	192,674	Form 4
2026-06-30	Beranek Cheryl	director	Award / grant	210	494,751	Form 4
2026-06-30	Khemakhem Anis	officer	Award / grant	158	25,284	Form 4
2026-05-06	Khemakhem Anis	officer	Withheld for tax	635	26,810	Form 4
2026-02-27	Jones Walter Louis JR	director	Award / grant	2,544	11,073	Form 4
2026-02-27	Wirsbinski Carol Ann	director	Award / grant	2,544	9,631	Form 4
2026-02-27	ROTH RONALD G	director	Award / grant	2,544	1,281,808	Form 4
2026-02-27	Sarcevic Ademir	director	Award / grant	2,544	5,317	Form 4
2026-02-27	Seidel Rebecca	director	Award / grant	2,544	2,870	Form 4
2026-02-27	Kelly Catherine T.	director	Award / grant	2,544	5,317	Form 4
2026-02-27	SKARVAN KATHLEEN	director	Award / grant	2,544	2,870	Form 4
2025-12-31	Hill John P	officer	Award / grant	222	192,215	Form 4
2025-12-31	Beranek Cheryl	director	Award / grant	210	512,041	Form 4
2025-12-31	Khemakhem Anis	officer	Award / grant	131	27,445	Form 4
2025-12-31	HERZOG DANIEL R	officer	Award / grant	88	85,082	Form 4
2025-12-11	Beranek Cheryl	director	Gift	1,960	511,831	Form 4
2025-12-10	Seidel Rebecca	director	Award / grant	326	326	Form 4
2025-12-10	SKARVAN KATHLEEN	director	Award / grant	326	326	Form 4
2025-11-28	Hill John P	officer	Award / grant	17,030	191,993	Form 4
2025-11-28	HERZOG DANIEL R	officer	Award / grant	11,495	84,994	Form 4
2025-11-28	Beranek Cheryl	director	Award / grant	25,545	513,791	Form 4
2025-11-20	Beranek Cheryl	director	Withheld for tax	2,653	488,246	Form 4
2025-11-20	Hill John P	officer	Withheld for tax	2,653	174,963	Form 4
2025-11-20	HERZOG DANIEL R	officer	Withheld for tax	824	73,499	Form 4
2025-11-20	Beranek Cheryl	director	Award / grant	5,393	480,111	Form 4
2025-11-20	Beranek Cheryl	director	Award / grant	10,788	490,899	Form 4
2025-11-20	HERZOG DANIEL R	officer	Award / grant	2,696	68,929	Form 4
2025-11-20	HERZOG DANIEL R	officer	Award / grant	5,394	74,323	Form 4
2025-11-20	Hill John P	officer	Award / grant	5,393	166,828	Form 4
2025-11-20	Hill John P	officer	Award / grant	10,788	177,616	Form 4
2025-11-16	Hill John P	officer	Withheld for tax	2,653	161,435	Form 4
2025-11-16	Beranek Cheryl	director	Withheld for tax	2,318	474,718	Form 4
2025-11-16	Hill John P	officer	Withheld for tax	2,017	164,088	Form 4
2025-11-16	Beranek Cheryl	director	Withheld for tax	1,948	477,036	Form 4
2025-11-16	Beranek Cheryl	director	Withheld for tax	1,020	478,984	Form 4
2025-11-16	Hill John P	officer	Withheld for tax	1,020	166,105	Form 4
2025-11-16	HERZOG DANIEL R	officer	Withheld for tax	973	67,058	Form 4
2025-11-16	HERZOG DANIEL R	officer	Withheld for tax	825	66,233	Form 4
2025-11-16	HERZOG DANIEL R	officer	Withheld for tax	510	68,031	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i