CLDTChatham Lodging TrustReal Estate · REIT - Hotel & Motelas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.84 · now $12.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CLDT has typically landed between $11.25 and $14.67 — a range of −12.4% to +14.3% from the issuance price $12.84.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,109 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-04-162026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CLDT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$11.25worst · -12.4%$14.67best · +14.3%
  • now $12.84 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.9 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.23$13.57
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.25$14.67
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,109 windows spanning 2010-04-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−77.9%−77.9%+0.0%
2020-02-21−72.6%−77.7%+0.0%
2020-02-20−71.9%−77.5%+0.8%
3 best
2020-03-18+89.6%+0.0%+97.9%
2020-11-06+57.6%+0.0%+58.6%
2020-10-28+57.4%+0.0%+61.6%

4,109 overlapping windows · 2010-04-162026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+1.9%
n=16
Feb
44%
−0.4%
n=16
Mar
44%
−4.2%
n=16
Apr
56%
+2.1%
n=16
May
53%
+0.3%
n=17
Jun
41%
−0.2%
n=17
Jul
53%
−0.5%
n=17
Aug
47%
−0.5%
n=17
Sep
53%
−0.3%
n=17
Oct
50%
+2.3%
n=16
Nov
81%
+6.4%
n=16
Dec
63%
+1.9%
n=16

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$14$6↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

23 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Brown William PdirectorAward / grant5,0005,000Form 4
2026-03-01Wegner Jeremy BruceofficerAward / grant41,505344,355Form 4
2026-03-01FISHER JEFFREY HdirectorAward / grant137,4841,566,561Form 4
2026-03-01CRAVEN DENNIS MofficerAward / grant67,446664,620Form 4
2026-01-15Grissen DaviddirectorAward / grant15,51546,987Form 4
2026-01-15Brewer Edwin B JRdirectorAward / grant11,54660,280Form 4
2026-01-15Higgins Mary ElizabethdirectorAward / grant11,54649,782Form 4
2026-01-15RUHFUS ROLF EdirectorAward / grant11,54670,129Form 4
2026-01-15Williams Ethel IsaacsdirectorAward / grant11,54637,009Form 4
2026-01-15Brewer Edwin B JRdirectorAward / grant2,29662,576Form 4
2025-03-01FISHER JEFFREY HdirectorAward / grant131,1901,355,185Form 4
2025-03-01CRAVEN DENNIS MofficerAward / grant64,359560,925Form 4
2025-03-01CRAVEN DENNIS MofficerAward / grant36,249597,174Form 4
2025-03-01FISHER JEFFREY HdirectorAward / grant73,8921,429,077Form 4
2025-03-01Wegner Jeremy BruceofficerAward / grant39,606280,543Form 4
2025-03-01Wegner Jeremy BruceofficerAward / grant22,307302,850Form 4
2025-01-15Perlmutter Robert DdirectorAward / grant14,772108,662Form 4
2025-01-15Grissen DaviddirectorAward / grant11,76331,472Form 4
2025-01-15Williams Ethel IsaacsdirectorAward / grant8,75425,463Form 4
2025-01-15Higgins Mary ElizabethdirectorAward / grant8,75438,236Form 4
2025-01-15Brewer Edwin B JRdirectorAward / grant8,75447,907Form 4
2025-01-15RUHFUS ROLF EdirectorAward / grant8,75458,583Form 4
2025-01-15Brewer Edwin B JRdirectorAward / grant82748,734Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.