Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.84 · now $12.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CLDT has typically landed between $11.25 and $14.67 — a range of −12.4% to +14.3% from the issuance price $12.84.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,109 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-04-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CLDT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.84 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.9 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.23–$13.57
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.25–$14.67
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −77.9% | −77.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −72.6% | −77.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −71.9% | −77.5% | +0.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +89.6% | +0.0% | +97.9% |
| 2020-11-06 | +57.6% | +0.0% | +58.6% |
| 2020-10-28 | +57.4% | +0.0% | +61.6% |
4,109 overlapping windows · 2010-04-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
23 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Brown William P | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Wegner Jeremy Bruce | officer | Award / grant | 41,505 | 344,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | FISHER JEFFREY H | director | Award / grant | 137,484 | 1,566,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | CRAVEN DENNIS M | officer | Award / grant | 67,446 | 664,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Grissen David | director | Award / grant | 15,515 | 46,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Brewer Edwin B JR | director | Award / grant | 11,546 | 60,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Higgins Mary Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 11,546 | 49,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | RUHFUS ROLF E | director | Award / grant | 11,546 | 70,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Williams Ethel Isaacs | director | Award / grant | 11,546 | 37,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Brewer Edwin B JR | director | Award / grant | 2,296 | 62,576 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | FISHER JEFFREY H | director | Award / grant | 131,190 | 1,355,185 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | CRAVEN DENNIS M | officer | Award / grant | 64,359 | 560,925 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | CRAVEN DENNIS M | officer | Award / grant | 36,249 | 597,174 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | FISHER JEFFREY H | director | Award / grant | 73,892 | 1,429,077 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Wegner Jeremy Bruce | officer | Award / grant | 39,606 | 280,543 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Wegner Jeremy Bruce | officer | Award / grant | 22,307 | 302,850 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-15 | Perlmutter Robert D | director | Award / grant | 14,772 | 108,662 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-15 | Grissen David | director | Award / grant | 11,763 | 31,472 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-15 | Williams Ethel Isaacs | director | Award / grant | 8,754 | 25,463 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-15 | Higgins Mary Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 8,754 | 38,236 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-15 | Brewer Edwin B JR | director | Award / grant | 8,754 | 47,907 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-15 | RUHFUS ROLF E | director | Award / grant | 8,754 | 58,583 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-15 | Brewer Edwin B JR | director | Award / grant | 827 | 48,734 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.